{"id":12128,"date":"2014-09-01T19:02:26","date_gmt":"2014-09-01T16:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/109.232.216.219\/~bilimvegelecek\/?p=12128"},"modified":"2018-05-11T13:08:18","modified_gmt":"2018-05-11T10:08:18","slug":"akpli-yillarda-emegin-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2014\/09\/01\/akpli-yillarda-emegin-durumu","title":{"rendered":"AKP\u2019li y\u0131llarda eme\u011fin durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ezgi Ak\u015far <\/strong>\/ \u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi
\nDoruk Cengiz <\/strong>\/ University of Massachusetts – Amherst<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de eme\u011fin durumunu makro \u00f6l\u00e7ekte incelemek, bir\u00e7ok zorlu\u011fun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, verileri TU\u0130K sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ayr\u0131ca zor. Bu yaz\u0131, T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in verilerini ele\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yaz\u0131lm\u0131yor; ancak, belirtmek gerekir, T\u00dc\u0130K verilerinin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi ve T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in metodolojisi bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi ve kurum taraf\u0131ndan defalarca sorgulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (bkz. Mustafa S\u00f6nmez, D\u0130SK-AR). Ancak T\u00dc\u0130K verilerinin resmi veriler olmas\u0131 ve yeterli d\u00fczeyde ayr\u0131nt\u0131ya girebilmesi nedeniyle, biz, bu verileri kulland\u0131k.<\/p>\n

2001 krizi ile beraber, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, Kemal Dervi\u015f\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yeni bir paradigmaya ge\u00e7i\u015f yapt\u0131. \u0130ktidar, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda DSP-MHP-ANAP koalisyonundan AKP\u2019ye ge\u00e7ti\u011finde bu politikalar aynen devam etti. Dervi\u015f\u2019in re\u00e7etesi, devlet harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131lacak, kur serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lacak, kamu iktisadi te\u015febb\u00fcsleri \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilerek daha \u201cverimli\u201d k\u0131l\u0131nacak, ve benzeri neoliberal uygulamalar i\u00e7eriyordu. \u00c7ok\u00e7a duydu\u011fumuz kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131 i\u00e7eren re\u00e7eteye g\u00f6re, K\u0130T\u2019lerde personel say\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lmayacak, primler ve ikramiyeler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclecek, tar\u0131msal destek miktar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131lacak, memur say\u0131s\u0131 en iyi ihtimalle sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lacak ya da azalt\u0131lacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu politikalar\u0131n emek\u00e7i-sermayedar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve istihdam\u0131n her kesimden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc iddia edebiliriz. Resmi verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncemizin do\u011fruland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliyoruz.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"Bu grafikte, s\u00f6ylediklerimize ayk\u0131r\u0131 davranan tek kesim ilk\u00f6\u011fretim mezunlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu sebeple, AKP iktidar\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalifiyedeki i\u015f\u00e7ilerin menfaatlerini korudu\u011funu ve \u00f6nceli\u011fi buraya verdi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ne var ki zorunlu e\u011fitimin 8 y\u0131la \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 1997 tarihlidir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ilk\u00f6\u011fretim mezunlar\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne 2000 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Gen\u00e7 istihdam\u0131n, genel istihdama g\u00f6re her zaman d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, ilk mezun olanlar\u0131n da do\u011fal olarak gen\u00e7 olmas\u0131, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131n\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011finden \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bu arg\u00fcman\u0131 ayn\u0131 y\u0131llarda orta okul mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n istihdam oran\u0131 ile ilk\u00f6\u011fretim mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n istihdam oran\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak test edebiliriz. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda ortaokul mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n istihdam oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 42 iken ilk\u00f6\u011fretim mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n istihdam oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019dur. Bu fark ilk\u00f6\u011fretim mezunlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015f ve tecr\u00fcbe ile ilgili oldu\u011fu, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin e\u015fitlik\u00e7i bir politikas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sav\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\u00a0 Demek ki, istihdam oran\u0131 her kesim i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Beklenen, s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc oran\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130\u015fsizlik ile s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc oran\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r ve AKP d\u00f6neminde de bu ili\u015fki devam etmi\u015ftir. (1)<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de emek \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n hepsinin fark etti\u011fi ilk konu, istihdam oran\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcd\u00fcr. Bu oran o kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr ki, kriz sebebiyle ekonomisi y\u00fczde 20\u2019den fazla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve i\u015fsizli\u011fi tavan yapm\u0131\u015f Yunanistan bile, 2012 itibariyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den daha y\u00fcksek istihdam oran\u0131na sahiptir. AKP\u2019li y\u0131llar boyunca istihdam oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 44 ile y\u00fczde 48 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f ve hi\u00e7bir zaman y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130stihdam oran\u0131 bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, o halde, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 nas\u0131l oluyor da Yunanistan\u2019daki y\u00fczde 25 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor? \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131yor?<\/p>\n

Bu noktada tan\u0131mlara a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k getirmek gerekiyor. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re bir insan\u0131n i\u015fsiz olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmamas\u0131 ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131r durumda olmas\u0131 yeterli de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca, yak\u0131n zamanda i\u015f ar\u0131yor olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Demek ki i\u015fsiz, i\u015fsiz oldu\u011funu ispatlamal\u0131. Yoksa, i\u015fsiz say\u0131lm\u0131yor. \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 50 yerine OECD ortalamas\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p y\u00fczde 60 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 25\u2019lere s\u0131\u00e7r\u0131yor. O halde sormak durumunday\u0131z, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnde olmayanlar neden de\u011filler?<\/p>\n

\"\"T\u00dc\u0130K verilerinde, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnde yer almayanlar\u0131n neden i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnde olmad\u0131klar\u0131 da sorulmu\u015f. Cevaplardan ikisi \u201c\u0130\u015f bulma \u00fcmidi yok\u201d ve \u201c\u0130\u015f aramay\u0131p \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131r\u201d. Bu iki grup da i\u015fsiz olarak kategorize edilmiyorlar, ancak, iddia edilebilir ki, bu insanlar da yedek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ordusunda yer al\u0131yorlar. AKP d\u00f6neminde, iki grup da hem mutlak de\u011fer olarak hem de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne d\u00e2hil olmayanlar i\u00e7indeki oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bi\u00e7imde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu art\u0131\u015f, AKP politikalar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131labilecek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc nas\u0131l da verimsiz kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Buraya dek yaz\u0131lanlar, yedek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ordusundaki de\u011fi\u015fmeler ile ilgiliydi. Yukar\u0131da i\u015faret etti\u011fimiz ikinci nokta da vas\u0131fl\u0131 eme\u011fin kullan\u0131lmamas\u0131 sonucu vasf\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesidir. Burada bak\u0131lacak veri ise 1 y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir i\u015fsiz kalan \u00fcniversite ve y\u00fcksek okul mezunlar\u0131d\u0131r. Burada da veriyi ham bir bi\u00e7imde kullanmak sak\u0131ncal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00dcniversiteli say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve \u00fcniversitelilere talebin artmas\u0131 sonucu mutlak de\u011ferde bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenebilir, ki bu her zaman, var olan eme\u011fin israf\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyebilir. Ancak bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir i\u015f arayan ve bulamayan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 istihdam edilen \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131na b\u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, vas\u0131fl\u0131 eme\u011fin nas\u0131l kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha iyi anlayabiliriz.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"Oranlar, mutlak de\u011ferdeki de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri takip etmi\u015f ve onlar da artm\u0131\u015f. O halde rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6yleyebiliriz ki, AKP d\u00f6neminde uygulanan ekonomi politikalar\u0131 var olan vas\u0131fl\u0131 emek-g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki iktidarlardan daha fazla israf etmektedir. Burada, ge\u00e7erken eklenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir nokta var. Aralar\u0131nda muhalif iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n da oldu\u011fu kimi akademisyenler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kalk\u0131nma i\u00e7in yapmas\u0131 gerekenin eme\u011fi daha vas\u0131fl\u0131 hale getirmek, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na de\u011fil, e\u011fitim harcamalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelinmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. E\u011fitime yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak bu arg\u00fcmanlarda bir nedensellik ve bir tercih var. Bu konu \u00fczerine detayl\u0131 bir analiz yapmayaca\u011f\u0131z; sadece, iktisatta \u00f6nemli olan yaln\u0131zca arz de\u011fil, talep de \u00f6nemlidir, hat\u0131rlatmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmakla yetinece\u011fiz. \u00dcniversite mezunu say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fcniversitelileri art\u0131rmak anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6zellikle uzun vadeli i\u015fsizli\u011fin \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, artan e\u011fitim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6pe gitmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n

Verilerin bize sundu\u011fu, istihdam\u0131n her e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir durumda olan insanlar\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne d\u00e2hil olmada her zamankinden daha da teredd\u00fctl\u00fc oldu\u011fu ve vas\u0131fl\u0131 say\u0131labilecek eme\u011fin israf\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu noktada bizim sunduklar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u015f\u00f6yle bir kar\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcmana dayan\u0131ks\u0131z oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir: \u201c\u0130stihdam her kesim i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olabilir, ancak toplumun e\u011fitim seviyesi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in genel istihdam artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u201d Verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. AKP iktidar\u0131 boyunca istihdam oran\u0131 ya d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr ya da en iyi ihtimalle AKP \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyindedir. Yine de yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fumuz se\u00e7imin temel sebebini a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yukar\u0131da da belirttik, biz yedek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ordusunun \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar \u00fczerindeki etkileri ile ilgileniyoruz. \u0130lk\u00f6\u011fretim mezunlar\u0131n\u0131n istihdam oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, \u00fcniversite mezunlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sermayedarlar\u0131n kullanaca\u011f\u0131 bir koz olamaz. \u00dcniversite mezunu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131 \u201cdisipline\u201d etmek i\u00e7in, yedek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ordusunun \u00fcniversite mezunu kesimini g\u00f6stermek gerekir. Se\u00e7imimiz temel sebebi budur, kapitalist ile farkl\u0131 t\u00fcrden emek sahibi kesimlerin kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 incelemektir. Rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6yleyebiliriz ki, AKP\u2019li y\u0131llar, eme\u011fin g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fc ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Emek\u00e7iler i\u015fsizlikle \u201cterbiye\u201d edilmi\u015f, sermaye de rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Dipnot<\/strong><\/p>\n

1) Cem Oyvat, \u201cAskeri Rejim, Liberalle\u015fme ve S\u00fcrecin Ard\u0131llar\u0131\u201d Birikim, 2011. http:\/\/www.birikimdergisi.com\/birikim\/makale.aspx?mid=776<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ezgi Ak\u015far \/ \u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi Doruk Cengiz \/ University of Massachusetts – Amherst T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de eme\u011fin durumunu makro \u00f6l\u00e7ekte incelemek, bir\u00e7ok zorlu\u011fun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, verileri TU\u0130K sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ayr\u0131ca zor. Bu yaz\u0131, T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in verilerini ele\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yaz\u0131lm\u0131yor; ancak, belirtmek gerekir, T\u00dc\u0130K verilerinin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi ve T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in metodolojisi bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi ve kurum taraf\u0131ndan defalarca sorgulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (bkz. Mustafa S\u00f6nmez, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":852,"featured_media":25204,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[164,535],"tags":[548,278,1005,1640],"class_list":["post-12128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-127-sayi","category-forum","tag-akp","tag-ekonomi","tag-emek","tag-issizlik"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/852"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12128\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}