{"id":16374,"date":"2016-02-01T12:22:11","date_gmt":"2016-02-01T10:22:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/109.232.216.219\/~bilimvegelecek\/?p=16374"},"modified":"2018-01-10T12:37:25","modified_gmt":"2018-01-10T09:37:25","slug":"iklim-degisikligi-ve-bir-step-hayvani-olan-anadolu-yer-sincabi-2-iklim-degisikligi-anadolu-yer-sincabini-nasil-etkiliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2016\/02\/01\/iklim-degisikligi-ve-bir-step-hayvani-olan-anadolu-yer-sincabi-2-iklim-degisikligi-anadolu-yer-sincabini-nasil-etkiliyor","title":{"rendered":"\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve bir step hayvan\u0131 olan Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 – 2:\u00a0\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiliyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki daralmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f durdurulamazsa, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar \u00f6zellikle \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesiminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rak\u0131mlardaki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n kaybolmas\u0131 ile h\u0131zla devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. <\/em><\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 1. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 (foto\u011fraflar: Utku Perkta\u015f).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi ve molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin step ve alpin \u00e7ay\u0131rlarda ya\u015fayan Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131 (Spermophilus<\/em> xanthoprymnus<\/em>; \u015eekil 1) nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi\/etkileyece\u011fi incelenmi\u015ftir. Yani, ge\u00e7mi\u015fi anlamak ve gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in, bu iki farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n nas\u0131l kullan\u0131labilece\u011finin bir \u00f6rne\u011fi \u00fczerinde durulmu\u015ftur (ge\u00e7mi\u015fi anlamakla ilgili bilgiler temel olarak G\u00fcr [2013]\u2019e, gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekle ilgili bilgiler ise yay\u0131nlanmam\u0131\u015f sonu\u00e7lara dayan\u0131r).<\/p>\n

Anadolu yer sincab\u0131, \u0130\u00e7 ve Do\u011fu Anadolu, kom\u015fu Ermenistan ve kuzeybat\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n step ve alpin \u00e7ay\u0131rlar\u0131nda ya\u015fayan (toprak alt\u0131nda uyuyan ve k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7iren, toprak \u00fcst\u00fcnde ise beslenen) g\u00fcnd\u00fczc\u00fcl ve k\u0131\u015f uykusuna giren bir sincap t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr. (\u015eekil 1, 2) Hem Bat\u0131 Toros Da\u011flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131nda hem de Orta Toros Da\u011flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusunda ve \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7ukurova\u2019da yer sincab\u0131 populasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frulanmal\u0131 ve e\u011fer do\u011frulan\u0131rsa, sistematik\/biyoco\u011frafi olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanmal\u0131d\u0131r. (\u015eekil 2) Anadolu yer sincab\u0131, \u00e7o\u011funlukla mart ay\u0131ndan eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar aktiftir ve di\u011fer aylar\u0131 k\u0131\u015f uykusunda ge\u00e7irir. Kurak ko\u015fullara hayli ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fc olman\u0131n yan\u0131nda, ayn\u0131 zamanda so\u011fuk mevsimsel ko\u015fullara da ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcd\u00fcr. (G\u00fcr and Kart G\u00fcr 2005; Kart G\u00fcr et al. 2009; Kart G\u00fcr and G\u00fcr 2010, 2015)<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 2. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (G\u00fcr 2013\u2019den).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ge\u00e7 Kuvaterner buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri boyunca ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen iklim de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri, t\u00fcrlerin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve genetik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 etkiler. (Hewitt 1996, 1999, 2000, 2004) T\u00fcrler, bu iklim de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine g\u00f6re, co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel bir \u015fekilde geni\u015fletir veya daraltt\u0131r. Bir t\u00fcr\u00fcn bir buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc boyunca da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi co\u011frafi b\u00f6lge veya b\u00f6lgeler (ki bu b\u00f6lgeler, t\u00fcr\u00fcn co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki maksimum daralmay\u0131 temsil eder), Kuvaterner s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. Genel olarak \u00fc\u00e7 tip s\u0131\u011f\u0131naktan s\u00f6z edilebilir: buzul s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131, buzullararas\u0131 s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar ve okyanussal-k\u0131tasal gradiyent. Asl\u0131nda bu s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak tipleri, t\u00fcrlerin buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclere genel olarak nas\u0131l yan\u0131t verece\u011fini (co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ne zaman ve hangi co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgeye daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131) tan\u0131mlar. (Stewart et al. 2010)<\/p>\n

Buzul s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar, \u0131l\u0131man ku\u015fak t\u00fcrlerinin (\u00f6rne\u011fin, sar\u0131 boyunlu orman faresi, Apodemus sylvaticus<\/em>; su s\u0131\u00e7anlar\u0131, Arvicola<\/em> spp.; \u00e7ay\u0131r \u00e7ekirgesi, Chorthippus parallelus<\/em>; k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck beyaz di\u015fli b\u00f6cek\u00e7il, Crocidura suaveolens<\/em>; kirpiler, Erinaceus<\/em> sp.; me\u015feler, Quercus<\/em> spp.; semenderler, Triturus<\/em> spp.; bozay\u0131, Ursus arctos<\/em>) co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n buzul d\u00f6nemlerde genel olarak g\u00fcneydeki co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgelere (g\u00fcney s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131) daralmas\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder. Bu buzul s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar, genel olarak G\u00fcney Avrupa\u2019da konumlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (Stewart et al. 2010). Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, Anadolu\u2019nun \u0131l\u0131man ku\u015fak t\u00fcrleri i\u00e7in buzul s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak rol\u00fc daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r (Anadolu ile ilgili genel bir de\u011ferlendirme i\u00e7in, bkz. Bilgin 2011 ve \u00f6rnek bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7in, bkz. Perkta\u015f et al. 2015a). Ayr\u0131ca, buzul s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131n baz\u0131 \u0131l\u0131man ku\u015fak t\u00fcrleri (\u00f6rne\u011fin, alt\u0131n otu, Asplenium ceterach<\/em>; parmaksaz, Carex digitata<\/em>; k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 s\u0131rtl\u0131 fare, Clethrionomys glareolus<\/em>; orman b\u00f6cek\u00e7ili, Sorex araneus<\/em>) i\u00e7in beklenenden daha kuzeyde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. (kriptik kuzey s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131, Stewart et al. 2010)<\/p>\n

Buzullararas\u0131 s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar, so\u011fu\u011fa uyum sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrlerin (\u00f6rne\u011fin, kutup tilkisi, Alopex lagopus<\/em>; lemmingler, Dicrostonyx<\/em> spp. ve Lemmus<\/em> spp.; misk s\u0131\u011f\u0131r\u0131, Ovibus moschatus<\/em>; Ren geyi\u011fi, Rangifer tarandus<\/em>) co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde genel olarak kuzeydeki co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgelere (polar-kuzey s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131) daralmas\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder. Ayr\u0131ca, buzullararas\u0131 s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131n so\u011fu\u011fa uyum sa\u011flayan baz\u0131 t\u00fcrler (\u00f6rne\u011fin, bodur hu\u015f, Betula nana<\/em>; bir m\u00fcbarekotu t\u00fcr\u00fc, Dryas octopetala<\/em>; bir k\u0131nkanatl\u0131 b\u00f6cek t\u00fcr\u00fc, Helophorus lapponicus<\/em>; kaya kar tavu\u011fu, Lagopus mutus<\/em>; kutup tav\u015fan\u0131, Lepus timidus<\/em>) i\u00e7in beklenenden daha g\u00fcneyde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. (kriptik g\u00fcney s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131, Stewart et al. 2010)<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrlerin buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclere yan\u0131t\u0131nda bug\u00fcne kadar s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen bir di\u011fer biyoco\u011frafi boyut, okyanussal-k\u0131tasal gradiyenttir. Okyanussal daha nemli ve daha az mevsimsel iklime, k\u0131tasal ise daha kurak ve mevsimsel iklime uyumu belirtir. Bu gradiyent, kuzey ve g\u00fcney s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131n enlemsel konumlanmas\u0131n\u0131n tersine, s\u0131kl\u0131kla boylamsal konumlan\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece, k\u0131tasal uyum sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrlerin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde genel olarak k\u0131tan\u0131n i\u00e7 kesimlerine do\u011fru do\u011fudaki co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgelere (k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar), okyanussal uyum sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrlerin ise co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n buzul d\u00f6nemlerde genel olarak k\u0131tan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131na do\u011fru bat\u0131daki co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgelere (okyanussal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar) daralmas\u0131 beklenir. Il\u0131man ku\u015fak t\u00fcrleri i\u00e7in kriptik kuzey s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131 ve so\u011fu\u011fa uyum sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrler i\u00e7in kriptik g\u00fcney s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131na benzer bir olgu, boylamsal bir eksende ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir (\u00f6rne\u011fin, k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131n k\u0131tasal uyum sa\u011flayan baz\u0131 t\u00fcrler i\u00e7in [\u00f6rne\u011fin, yalanc\u0131 i\u011fde, Hippophae rhamnoides<\/em>; g\u00fcney hu\u015f faresi, Sicista subtilis<\/em>] beklenenden daha bat\u0131da olmas\u0131 gibi, Stewart et al. 2010). Stewart et al. (2010), fosil kay\u0131tlar\u0131 ve modern co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na dayanarak, yer sincaplar\u0131 (Spermophilus<\/em> spp.), bozk\u0131r antilopu (Saiga tatarica<\/em>), \u0131sl\u0131kl\u0131 veya c\u00fcce tav\u015fanlar (Ochotona<\/em> spp.) gibi baz\u0131 Avrasya memeli t\u00fcrlerinin bug\u00fcn Palaeartik\u2019te daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir k\u0131tasal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma sahipken, son buzul d\u00f6nemde Britanya Adalar\u0131\u2019na kadar uzanan daha geni\u015f bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma sahip oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015f; ancak bu k\u0131tasal \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc ile ilgili herhangi bir filoco\u011frafi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da eklemi\u015ftir (G\u00fcr [2013], bu a\u00e7\u0131dan ilk \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r; bkz. a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya). Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, okyanussal \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc ile ilgili de iyi bir \u00f6rnek bilmediklerini belirtmi\u015flerdir.<\/p>\n

Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n Ge\u00e7 Kuvaterner buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri boyunca ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen iklim de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine nas\u0131l yan\u0131t verdi\u011fini, yani yukar\u0131daki s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak tiplerinden hangisini sergiledi\u011fini (ge\u00e7mi\u015fi) anlamak, gelecekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine nas\u0131l yan\u0131t verece\u011fini (gelece\u011fi) \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daraltan t\u00fcrlerin 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkilerine daha a\u00e7\u0131k olmalar\u0131 beklenir (Ashcroft 2010); di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131, zaten g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde (di\u011fer buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde oldu\u011fu gibi) co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daraltm\u0131\u015f olan t\u00fcrleri daha fazla tehdit edecektir. Daha kurak ve mevsimsel iklime k\u0131tasal uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, okyanussal-k\u0131tasal gradiyente dayanarak, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde genel olarak Anadolu\u2019nun i\u00e7 ve\/veya do\u011fu kesimlerine (k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklara) do\u011fru darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 ile birlikte daralmaya devam edece\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrer.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 3. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz (1950-2000) (A), son buzul maksimum (21 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) (B) ve son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki (130-116 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) (C) co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (G\u00fcr 2013\u2019den). Haritada g\u00f6r\u00fclen alan, 25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey\u2019dir. Koyu gri d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki alanlar, biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlard\u0131r (yani, potansiyel co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m alan\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ger\u00e7ekten de, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fekilde, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (asl\u0131nda biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar), son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemde (130-116 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) genel olarak hem \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu hem de Do\u011fu Anadolu\u2019da iki ana grup halindeki k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklara s\u0131\u011f\u0131nacak \u015fekilde olduk\u00e7a daralm\u0131\u015f; daha sonra son buzul d\u00f6nemde (115-12 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) buzullar\u0131n maksimum y\u00fcz\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcne ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 son buzul maksimuma (21 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) kadar bu buzullararas\u0131 s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklardan ba\u015flayarak olduk\u00e7a geni\u015flemi\u015f ve bundan sonra g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar (yani, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemde) tekrar bir miktar daralm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (\u015eekil 3) Bu geni\u015fleme-daralma \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc, okyanussal-k\u0131tasal gradiyentin k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar aya\u011f\u0131 ile uyumludur.<\/p>\n

Yeri gelmi\u015fken, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in bilinen co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m alan\u0131 ile hemen hemen e\u015fle\u015fmesi, t\u00fcr-iklim e\u015fitli\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. Ayr\u0131ca, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi ve molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmesi (bkz. a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya), dolayl\u0131 olarak Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in zaman boyunca ekolojik ni\u015fin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrer. \u00d6zellikle t\u00fcr\u00fcn ge\u00e7mi\u015f veya gelecekteki co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 tahminlenmek isteniyorsa, bu varsay\u0131mlar olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n evrimsel ekolojisi ve Anadolu\u2019nun biyoco\u011frafyas\u0131 birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, dispersal yetene\u011fi ve biyotik etkile\u015fimlerin modelleme s\u00fcrecine dahil edilmemesinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7ok etkilemeyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n

Peki, Anadolu\u2019yu da i\u00e7ine alan co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgede (25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey) son 130 bin y\u0131lda iklim de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri nas\u0131l olmu\u015ftur? 1) Son buzul maksimum, son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczden daha so\u011fuktu. Son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem ile g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz aras\u0131ndaki belirgin farkl\u0131l\u0131klardan biri, yaz s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndad\u0131r: son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem, yaz\u0131n daha s\u0131cakt\u0131. 2) S\u0131cakl\u0131k mevsimselli\u011fi, son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemde en y\u00fcksekti. 3) Son buzul maksimum, son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczden daha kurakt\u0131. Son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczden \u00f6zellikle yaz\u0131n daha ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131yd\u0131. 4) Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f mevsimselli\u011fi, d\u00f6nemler aras\u0131nda belirgin bir \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 de\u011fildi. (Tablo 1)<\/p>\n

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Tablo 1. Anadolu\u2019yu da i\u00e7ine alan co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgenin (25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey) son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem (130-116 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce), son buzul maksimum (21 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz (1950-2000) iklimi. Anadolu\u2019yu da i\u00e7ine alan co\u011frafi b\u00f6lge (25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey) i\u00e7in bkz. \u015eekil 3. Biyoiklimsel veri, WorldClim-Global Climate Data (www.worldclim.org) \u00fczerinden elde edilmi\u015ftir. Son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem iklimi tek bir k\u00fcresel iklim modeline (Community Climate System Model, CCSM, Otto-Bliesner et al. 2006), son buzul maksimum iklimi ise iki k\u00fcresel iklim modeline (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC, K-1 Model Developers 2004 ve CCSM, Collins et al. 2006) dayanmaktad\u0131r. S\u0131cakl\u0131k mevsimselli\u011fi standart sapma, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f mevsimselli\u011fi ise varyasyon katsay\u0131s\u0131 \u015feklinde ifade edilmi\u015ftir.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Y\u0131ll\u0131k ve yaz s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle y\u0131ll\u0131k ya\u011f\u0131\u015f), Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok etkileyen biyoiklimsel de\u011fi\u015fkenlerdir. \u00d6yle anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ki, son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemin s\u0131cak (en az\u0131ndan yaz\u0131n) ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 biyoiklimsel ko\u015fullar\u0131 Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131na, son buzul maksimumun so\u011fuk ve kurak biyoiklimsel ko\u015fullar\u0131 ise geni\u015flemesine neden olmu\u015ftur. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn son buzul maksimumdan daha s\u0131cak ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 biyoiklimsel ko\u015fullar\u0131, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n tekrar bir miktar daralmas\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerinden biridir. \u015e\u00fcphesiz \u00f6zellikle tar\u0131m gibi antropojenik arazi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu habitat kayb\u0131 ve par\u00e7alanmas\u0131, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkisini art\u0131racak \u015fekilde Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 tehdit eder. (Kry\u0161tufek et al. 2008) Bu nedenle, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve arazi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n sinerjistik etkisi (\u00f6rne\u011fin, metapopulasyon dinamikleri gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar ile) iyi incelenmelidir.<\/p>\n

Peki, Anadolu\u2019da \u00f6zellikle son buzul maksimum civar\u0131nda vejetasyon de\u011fi\u015fimleri nas\u0131l olmu\u015ftur? 23-19 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nceleri (son buzul maksimum) Anadolu\u2019nun kuzeyinde, \u00f6zellikle de k\u0131y\u0131 ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda so\u011fuk veya serin ve nemli iklim ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda yo\u011fun bir orman \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fc vard\u0131. Benzer \u015fekilde, Anadolu\u2019nun Akdeniz k\u0131y\u0131 ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda so\u011fuk ve nemli iklim ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn vejetasyonun y\u00fczde 50-60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 orman olu\u015fturuyordu. (\u015eenkul ve Do\u011fan 2013) Anla\u015f\u0131lan son buzul maksimumda bile Anadolu\u2019nun k\u0131y\u0131 ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 orman \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcne sahipti. (bkz. ayr\u0131ca Tarkhnishvili et al. 2012) Bu orman \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle \u0131l\u0131man ku\u015fak t\u00fcrleri ve okyanussal uyum sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrler i\u00e7in buzul s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak rol\u00fc daha iyi de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. (\u00f6rnek bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7in, bkz. Perkta\u015f et al. 2015a,b) Son buzul maksimumda (Anadolu\u2019nun \u00f6zellikle i\u00e7 kesimlerini i\u00e7erecek \u015fekilde) Yak\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019da ise so\u011fuk ve kurak iklim ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda step \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fc yayg\u0131nla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (Atalay 1998) \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Daha \u00f6nce de de\u011finildi\u011fi gibi, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131, genel olarak steplerde ya\u015far. Bir t\u00fcr\u00fcn ancak uygun habitata sahip biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlarda ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in son buzul maksimumda biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n geni\u015flemesine step \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn e\u015flik edip etmedi\u011fi \u00f6nemli bir sorudur. \u00d6yle anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ki, son buzul maksimumda Anadolu\u2019nun \u00f6zellikle i\u00e7 kesimlerinde so\u011fuk ve kurak iklim ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda (yani, biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n geni\u015flemesine e\u015flik edecek \u015fekilde) step \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesine neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, son 130 bin y\u0131l i\u00e7inde g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar genel olarak enlemsel veya rak\u0131msal bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ziyade, okyanussal-k\u0131tasal gradiyent ile uyumlu olarak boylamsal bir de\u011fi\u015fim sergilemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. (\u015eekil 3, Tablo 2)<\/p>\n

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Tablo 2. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem (130-116 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce), son buzul maksimum (21 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce), g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz (1950-2000) ve gelecekteki (2080) biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n rak\u0131msal (m) da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131.
Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem, son buzul maksimum ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar i\u00e7in bkz. \u015eekil 3 ve gelecekteki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar i\u00e7in bkz. \u015eekil 5.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Peki, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in yukar\u0131da anlat\u0131lan ve t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m ve biyoiklimsel verileri kullanan ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na dayanan hikaye, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir veriyi (mitokondriyal [mt]DNA sitokrom [sit] b sekanslar\u0131) kullanan molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na dayanan hikaye ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor mu? E\u011fer \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa, co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m alan\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ve geni\u015flemesine, s\u0131ras\u0131yla etkin populasyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 ve artmas\u0131 e\u015flik etmeli ve k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak olarak tan\u0131mlanan co\u011frafi alanlar, \u00e7evrelerindeki co\u011frafi alanlardan daha y\u00fcksek genetik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fe sahip olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 4. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f mtDNA sit b soy hatt\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (G\u00fcr 2013\u2019den). Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki (130-116 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (koyu gri alan), ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Van G\u00f6l\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn do\u011fusundaki mtDNA sit b haplotipi, herhangi bir soy hatt\u0131nda yer almamaktad\u0131r (G\u00fcnd\u00fcz et al. 2007).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ger\u00e7ekten de, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n etkin populasyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, son buzul d\u00f6nemde son buzul maksimumdan \u00f6nce artmaya ve son buzul maksimumdan sonra \u00f6zellikle i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemde azalmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131, filoco\u011frafi olarak be\u015f (muhtemelen tan\u0131mlanmayan bir soy hatt\u0131 ile birlikte alt\u0131) soy hatt\u0131na (bu soy hatlar\u0131, 1\u2019den 5\u2019e kadar numaraland\u0131r\u0131larak isimlendirilmi\u015ftir) ayr\u0131lacak \u015fekilde yap\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (G\u00fcnd\u00fcz et al. 2007) mtDNA sit b haplotiplerinin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, bu be\u015f soy hatt\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcn (soy hatt\u0131 2-5) \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019da, birinin (soy hatt\u0131 1) ise tan\u0131mlanmayan soy hatt\u0131 ile birlikte Do\u011fu Anadolu\u2019da ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu, son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemde soy hatt\u0131 2-5\u2019in \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019daki, soy hatt\u0131 1 ve tan\u0131mlanmayan soy hatt\u0131n\u0131n ise Do\u011fu Anadolu\u2019daki ana k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklardan ba\u015flayarak co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrer. Bu durumda, \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019daki ana k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131n mutlaka soy hatt\u0131 2-5\u2019in her birinden mtDNA sit b haplotiplerine ev sahipli\u011fi yapmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece genetik \u00e7e\u015fitli\u011finin \u00e7evredeki co\u011frafi alanlardan y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 gerekir, ki g\u00f6zlenen de tam budur. Ancak Do\u011fu Anadolu\u2019daki ana k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan tart\u0131\u015facak yeterli veri yoktur. (\u015eekil 4) Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019daki soy hatt\u0131 2-3\u2019\u00fcn ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgedeki soy hatt\u0131 4-5\u2019den ziyade Do\u011fu Anadolu\u2019daki soy hatt\u0131 1\u2019le daha yak\u0131n filogenetik ili\u015fki sergilemesi (G\u00fcnd\u00fcz et al. 2007; G\u00fcr 2010), son 130 bin y\u0131ldaki hik\u00e2yenin (\u00f6rne\u011fin, k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131n co\u011frafi konumlanmas\u0131) daha \u00f6ncesinde farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrer.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 5. Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n gelecek (2080) co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (yay\u0131nlanmam\u0131\u015f sonu\u00e7lar). Haritada g\u00f6r\u00fclen alan, 25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey\u2019dir. Koyu gri d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki alanlar, biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlard\u0131r (yani, potansiyel co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m alan\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir). Gelecek i\u00e7in biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar, bir k\u00fcresel iklim modeli (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Mark Global Climate Model, CSIRO\u2013Mk2) ve sera gaz\u0131 emisyon senaryosu (A2a) kullan\u0131larak ve G\u00fcr (2013)\u2019teki t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m verisi ve metodolojik s\u00fcre\u00e7 izlenerek tahminlenmi\u015ftir.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ger\u00e7ekten de, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ge\u00e7mi\u015ften de anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 gibi, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki daralmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f durdurulamazsa, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar \u00f6zellikle \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesiminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rak\u0131mlardaki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n kaybolmas\u0131 ile h\u0131zla devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle, Anadolu\u2019yu da i\u00e7ine alan co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgenin (25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey) daha so\u011fuk ve kurak alanlar\u0131nda (= g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar) ya\u015fayan Anadolu yer sincab\u0131, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l sonunda bu alanlardaki biyoiklimsel ko\u015fullar\u0131n (\u00f6zellikle de yazlar\u0131n) daha s\u0131cak ve kurak olmas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden (Tablo 3), topo\u011frafik olarak kompleks alanlarda (Anadolu Diyagonali boyunca ve Do\u011fu Anadolu\u2019da daha y\u00fcksek rak\u0131mlarda) ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. (\u015eekil 5, Tablo 2) Bu daralma \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc, okyanussal-k\u0131tasal gradiyentin k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar aya\u011f\u0131 ile uyumludur. Ancak Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, iklimsel ko\u015fullardaki farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir sonucu olarak son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem ile 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonu aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131k sergiler. (\u015eekil 3, 5)<\/p>\n

\"\"
Tablo 3. Anadolu\u2019yu da i\u00e7ine alan co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgenin (25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey) g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz (1950-2000) (A) ve Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz (B) ve gelecek (2080) (C) iklimi.
Anadolu\u2019yu da i\u00e7ine alan co\u011frafi b\u00f6lge (25\u00b0-46\u00b0 Do\u011fu ve 35\u00b0-43\u00b0 Kuzey) ve Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar i\u00e7in bkz. \u015eekil 3. Biyoiklimsel veri, WorldClim-Global Climate Data (www.worldclim.org) \u00fczerinden elde edilmi\u015ftir. Gelecek iklimi, tek bir k\u00fcresel iklim modeline (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Mark Global Climate Model, CSIRO\u2013Mk2) ve sera gaz\u0131 emisyon senaryosuna (A2a) dayanmaktad\u0131r.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

B\u00f6ylece, Anadolu yer sincab\u0131, k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar\u0131n filoco\u011frafi olarak desteklendi\u011fi ilk t\u00fcr olmu\u015ftur. (bkz. G\u00fcr 2013) K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra, k\u0131tasal s\u0131\u011f\u0131naklar, Avrupa yer sincab\u0131 (Spermophilus citellus<\/em>) i\u00e7in de filoco\u011frafi olarak desteklenmi\u015ftir. (\u0158\u00ed\u010danov\u00e1 et al. 2013)<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de burada \u00f6zetlenen tarzdaki gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n desteklenmesi\/yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, uzak ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini (uzak ge\u00e7mi\u015fi) anlamak ve yak\u0131n gelecekteki iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini (yak\u0131n gelece\u011fi) \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n

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Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki daralmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f durdurulamazsa, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar \u00f6zellikle \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019nun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesiminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rak\u0131mlardaki biyoiklimsel olarak uygun alanlar\u0131n kaybolmas\u0131 ile h\u0131zla devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi ve molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin step ve alpin \u00e7ay\u0131rlarda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":671,"featured_media":16378,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[181,217,232],"tags":[198,1931,199,308,1930],"class_list":["post-16374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-144-sayi","category-cevre-bilimleri","category-yerbilimleri","tag-cevre","tag-doga-kosullari","tag-ekoloji","tag-iklim","tag-sincap"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/671"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}