{"id":16555,"date":"2016-01-01T13:07:34","date_gmt":"2016-01-01T11:07:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/109.232.216.219\/~bilimvegelecek\/?p=16555"},"modified":"2018-01-12T13:16:07","modified_gmt":"2018-01-12T10:16:07","slug":"iklim-degisikligi-ve-bir-step-hayvani-olan-anadolu-yer-sincabi-1-iklim-degisikligi-nedir-biyolojik-sistemleri-nasil-etkiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2016\/01\/01\/iklim-degisikligi-ve-bir-step-hayvani-olan-anadolu-yer-sincabi-1-iklim-degisikligi-nedir-biyolojik-sistemleri-nasil-etkiler","title":{"rendered":"\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve bir step hayvan\u0131 olan Anadolu yer sincab\u0131 – 1:\u00a0\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi nedir, biyolojik sistemleri nas\u0131l etkiler?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130klim, hem D\u00fcnya\u2019da hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fti (\u00f6rne\u011fin, s\u0131cakl\u0131klar artt\u0131 ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri de\u011fi\u015fti) ve de\u011fi\u015fmeye devam edecek. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, insan faaliyetleri, \u00f6zellikle de fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131 sonucu antropojenik sera gazlar\u0131n\u0131n atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyledir.\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bu yaz\u0131da, genel olarak iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemler \u00fczerindeki etkisini \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken yayg\u0131n olarak kullan\u0131lan modelleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya ile birlikte ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi) ve bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n nas\u0131l kullan\u0131labilece\u011finin bir \u00f6rne\u011fi olarak iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin step ve alpin \u00e7ay\u0131rlarda ya\u015fayan Anadolu yer sincab\u0131n\u0131 (Spermophilus<\/em> xanthoprymnus<\/em>) nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi\/etkileyece\u011fi \u00fczerinde durulmu\u015ftur. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n genel kurgusu, \u00f6zellikle gelecekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemleri (\u00f6rne\u011fin, step alanlar\u0131 ve canl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131) nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini (gelece\u011fi) ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemleri nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini (ge\u00e7mi\u015fi) iyi anlamak gerekti\u011fi \u00fczerinedir.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, do\u011fal de\u011fi\u015fkenlik ve\/veya insan faaliyetlerinin bir sonucu olarak iklimin zaman boyunca de\u011fi\u015fmesidir (aksi belirtilmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmdeki iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile ilgili bilgiler, \u015fu kayna\u011fa dayan\u0131r: H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli, 4. De\u011ferlendirme Raporu, \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Grubu I, Solomon et al. 2007 – bkz. ayr\u0131ca H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli, 5. De\u011ferlendirme Raporu, www.ipcc.ch\/index.htm). Peki, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin alt\u0131nda yatan nedenler (iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin y\u00f6nlendiricileri) nelerdir? Solar radyasyon, sera gazlar\u0131 ve aerosollerin atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fu ve yery\u00fcz\u00fc \u00f6zelliklerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler, iklim sisteminin enerji dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftirir. \u0130klim sisteminin enerji dengesinin de\u011fi\u015fmesi demek, asl\u0131nda iklimin de\u011fi\u015fmesi demektir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6rne\u011fin, iklim sisteminin enerji dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftiren etkenlerden sera gazlar\u0131n\u0131n atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki de\u011fi\u015fimleri inceleyelim. Karbondioksit (CO2<\/sub>), metan (CH4<\/sub>) ve diazotmonoksitin (N2<\/sub>O) atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fu, 1750 y\u0131l\u0131ndan, bir di\u011fer deyi\u015fle, sanayi devriminin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana belirgin bir \u015fekilde artm\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde binlerce y\u0131la yay\u0131lan buz \u00e7ekirdeklerinden belirlenen sanayi devrimi \u00f6ncesi de\u011ferleri fazlas\u0131yla ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, en \u00f6nemli antropojenik sera gaz\u0131 olan karbondioksitin atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fu, sanayi devrimi \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k 280 ppm (milyonda par\u00e7ac\u0131k) de\u011ferinden 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki 379 ppm de\u011ferine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Karbondioksitin 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fu, buz \u00e7ekirdeklerinden belirlenen son 650 bin y\u0131ldaki do\u011fal de\u011fi\u015fkenlik aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (180-300 ppm) \u00e7ok \u00f6tesindedir; yani, son 650 bin y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek de\u011ferindedir. Karbondioksitin atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f, temel olarak fosil yak\u0131t ve arazi kullan\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerden dolay\u0131d\u0131r. Metan ve diazotmonoksitin atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f ise, temel olarak tar\u0131m\u0131n sonucudur. \u00d6rne\u011fin, karbondioksitin atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f, 2005 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 1750 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki sanayi devrimi \u00f6ncesi ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re, iklim sisteminde 1,66 (1,49-1,83) W\/m2<\/sup> enerji birikmesi ve buna e\u015fde\u011fer bir \u0131s\u0131nma ile sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"
K\u00fcresel ortalama y\u00fczey s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (a), gelgit \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi (koyu gri alan) ve uydu (gri \u00e7izgi) verilerine dayal\u0131 k\u00fcresel ortalama deniz seviyesi (b) ve mart-nisan Kuzey Yar\u0131mk\u00fcre kar \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen de\u011fi\u015fiklikler (Solomon et al. 2007\u2019den). T\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, 1961-1990 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in ilgili ortalamalara g\u00f6relidir. Yumu\u015fat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f e\u011fri on y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama de\u011ferleri, daireler ise y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011ferleri g\u00f6stermektedir. Taral\u0131 alanlar, bilinen belirsizliklerin kapsaml\u0131 bir analizinden (a ve b) ve zaman serilerinden (c) tahminlenen belirsizlik aral\u0131klar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yak\u0131n tarihli iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan g\u00f6zlemler neler s\u00f6ylemektedir? \u0130klim sisteminin \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve deniz seviyesinin artmas\u0131 ve kuzey yar\u0131mk\u00fcre mart-nisan kar \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlerinden a\u015fik\u00e2r oldu\u011fu gibi, su g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez bir ger\u00e7ektir (\u015eekil 1). K\u00fcresel ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k, son y\u00fczy\u0131lda (1906-2005) 0,74 (0,56-0,92) o<\/sup>C\u2019lik do\u011frusal bir \u0131s\u0131nma e\u011filimi sergilemi\u015ftir. Is\u0131nma, D\u00fcnya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in istatistiksel olarak \u00f6nemlidir ve baz\u0131 yerlerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin, \u0130\u00e7 Asya) daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Do\u011frusal \u0131s\u0131nma e\u011filimi, son 50 y\u0131lda (1956-2005) son y\u00fcz y\u0131lda oldu\u011fundan hemen hemen iki kat daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olmu\u015ftur (her on y\u0131l i\u00e7in 0,13 [0,10-0,16] \u00b0C). S\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi, iklimdeki daha belirgin ve kolayl\u0131kla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fi\u015fimlerden biridir. Ancak iklimin di\u011fer bile\u015fenlerinin de de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, k\u00fcresel ortalama karasal ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, son y\u00fczy\u0131lda (1900-2005) do\u011frusal bir e\u011filim sergilememesine ra\u011fmen, 1950\u2019li y\u0131llara kadar artm\u0131\u015f, 1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na kadar azalm\u0131\u015f ve sonra yeniden artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, karasal ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, son y\u00fczy\u0131lda (1900-2005) baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin, Kuzey Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu b\u00f6lgesi) do\u011frusal bir artma e\u011filimi, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin, Bat\u0131 Afrika, Sahel) ise do\u011frusal bir azalma e\u011filimi sergilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, su g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez bir ger\u00e7ek oldu\u011fu gibi, insan faaliyetlerin de bir sonucudur. Peki, bunu nas\u0131l biliyoruz? \u00d6rne\u011fin, 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen k\u00fcresel ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla antropojenik sera gazlar\u0131n\u0131n atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyledir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6zlenen k\u00fcresel ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi (k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma), ancak do\u011fal fakt\u00f6rler (solar aktivite ve volkanlar) ile birlikte antropojenik fakt\u00f6rleri (insan faaliyetleri) dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z iklim modelleri ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabiliyor. Yani, do\u011fal fakt\u00f6rleri dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, ancak insan faaliyetlerini dikkate almad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z iklim modelleri, g\u00f6zlenen k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim modelleri, gelecekte nas\u0131l bir iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir? Sera gazlar\u0131 ve aerosollerin atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fu, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlerinde sabit tutulsa bile, 2090-2099 d\u00f6neminde 1980-1999 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte 0,6 (0,3-0,9) o<\/sup>C \u0131s\u0131nma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (sadece Atmosfer-Okyanus K\u00fcresel Sirk\u00fclasyon Modelleri [AOKSM]\u2019ne dayanan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc). \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen \u0131s\u0131nma, en iyimser tahminin dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 B1 sera gaz\u0131 emisyon senaryosuna g\u00f6re, 1,8 (1,1-2,9) o<\/sup>C, en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser tahminin dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 A1FI sera gaz\u0131 emisyon senaryosuna g\u00f6re ise, 4,0 (2,4-6,4) o<\/sup>C\u2019dir (AOKSM dahil bir dizi iklim modeline dayanan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler). Is\u0131nman\u0131n kara ve y\u00fcksek kuzey enlemlerde en fazla, G\u00fcney Okyanusu ve Kuzey Atlantik Okyanusu\u2019nun baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde ise en az olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n ise, y\u00fcksek enlemlerde y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla artmas\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu subtropikal b\u00f6lgede ise olas\u0131l\u0131kla azalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Peki, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek? \u00c7o\u011fu b\u00f6lgede 1950-2010 d\u00f6neminde \u0131s\u0131nma e\u011filimi g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir; di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma etkili olmu\u015ftur. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde genel olarak g\u00fcney ve bat\u0131da azalma, kuzey ve do\u011fuda ise artma e\u011filimi sergilemi\u015ftir (T.C. \u00c7evre ve \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2013). Is\u0131nma, 2071-2099 d\u00f6neminde 1961-1990 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re, bat\u0131 ve do\u011fuda t\u00fcm mevsimler i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, yaz mevsiminde bat\u0131da 3,3-6,9 o<\/sup>C, do\u011fuda ise 3,4-7,3 o<\/sup>C aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen bir \u0131s\u0131nma bekleniyor. Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n ise, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemler aras\u0131nda kuzey ve g\u00fcneyde t\u00fcm mevsimler i\u00e7in \u00e7o\u011funlukla azalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (A2 sera gaz\u0131 emisyon senaryosu i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 AOKSM [ECHAM5, HadCM3 ve CCSM3] ve bir AOKSM [CCSM3] i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 sera gaz\u0131 emisyon senaryosuna [A2, A1FI ve B1] dayanan ve b\u00f6lgesel bir iklim modeli [RegCM3] ile dinamik \u00f6l\u00e7ek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme uygulanan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler, Bozkurt et al. 2012; T.C. \u00c7evre ve \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2013).<\/p>\n

Durum \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k: iklim, hem D\u00fcnya\u2019da hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fti (\u00f6rne\u011fin, s\u0131cakl\u0131klar artt\u0131 ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri de\u011fi\u015fti) ve de\u011fi\u015fmeye devam edecek (\u00f6rne\u011fin, s\u0131cakl\u0131klar artmaya ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri de\u011fi\u015fmeye devam edecek). Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, insan faaliyetleri, \u00f6zellikle de fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131 sonucu antropojenik sera gazlar\u0131n\u0131n atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyledir.<\/p>\n

\"\"Buraya kadar, daha \u00e7ok ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ve i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u00fczy\u0131llarda s\u0131ras\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00fczerinde duruldu. Ancak bir \u015fey unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, yeni bir \u015fey de\u011fildir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Kuvaterner\u2019in son 430 bin y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemi, her biri 100 bin y\u0131l s\u00fcren buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclere sahne olmu\u015ftur. Her buzul buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc (ortalama % 20), normal olarak 10-30 bin y\u0131l s\u00fcren buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Milankovi\u00e7 d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri (d\u00f6nemsellik sergileyen orbital parametreler d\u0131\u015f merkezlilik, e\u011fiklik ve yalpalama), atmosferin \u00fcst k\u0131sm\u0131na gelen solar radyasyonun mevsimsel ve enlemsel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir. B\u00f6ylece, Milankovi\u00e7 teorisine g\u00f6re, 65. kuzey enlem civar\u0131na yaz mevsiminde gelen solar radyasyonun minimuma ula\u015fmas\u0131, k\u0131\u015f boyu ya\u011fan kar\u0131n y\u0131l boyu kalmas\u0131na ve b\u00f6ylece kuzey yar\u0131mk\u00fcrede buzullar\u0131 olu\u015fturacak \u015fekilde birikmesine neden olarak buzul d\u00f6nemleri tetikler. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 65. kuzey enleme haziran ay\u0131nda gelen solar radyasyon, son buzul d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda (116 \u00b1 1 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce) bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden 40 W\/m2<\/sup> daha azd\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini bilmek, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemleri (\u00f6rne\u011fin, step alanlar\u0131 ve canl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131) nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini (ge\u00e7mi\u015fi) anlamak ve gelecekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemleri nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini (gelece\u011fi) \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in ilk ad\u0131md\u0131r. Bu kapsamda, iklim modellerine dayanan yeniden olu\u015fturulan uzak ge\u00e7mi\u015f, meteorolojik kay\u0131tlara dayanan yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve iklim modellerine dayanan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen gelecek iklim verileri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011finin bilinmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Bu iklim verilerinin detayland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik her ad\u0131m (\u00f6rne\u011fin, b\u00f6lgesel iklim modellerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131 [\u00f6rne\u011fin, Bozkurt et al. 2012], meteorolojik istasyon a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesi), T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ge\u00e7mi\u015fi anlamak ve gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcphesiz \u00e7ok de\u011ferli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi neden \u00f6nemlidir? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc biyolojik bilimlerin penceresinden bakacak olursak, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi (s\u0131cakl\u0131k, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 olaylar, karbondioksit yo\u011funlu\u011fu ve okyanus dinamikleri gibi bile\u015fenleri), organizmadan biyoma kadar biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fin t\u00fcm bile\u015fenlerini etkiler ve biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlilik i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tehdittir (Bellard et al. 2012). Bu kapsamda, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u00fczy\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini daha da \u00f6nemli k\u0131lan, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin omurgal\u0131lar aras\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen iklimsel ni\u015f evrim h\u0131z\u0131ndan en az 10 bin kat daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Yani, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u00fczy\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine uyum (iklimsel ni\u015fin takip edilmesi hari\u00e7), omurgal\u0131lar\u0131n iklimsel ni\u015flerini daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir h\u0131zda de\u011fi\u015ftirmesini gerektirecektir (Quintero and Wiens 2013).<\/p>\n

Peki, biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine cevab\u0131 nas\u0131l olacakt\u0131r? \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine plastisite ve\/veya mikroevrim yoluyla verilen cevaplar \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fekilde olabilir: uzamsal, zamansal ve uzamsal ve zamansal olmayan. Uzamsal cevap, \u00f6rne\u011fin, t\u00fcrlerin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin, enlemsel ve\/veya rak\u0131msal olarak) de\u011fi\u015ftirmesini i\u00e7erir. Zamansal cevap, t\u00fcrlerin biyolojik olaylar\u0131n (\u00f6rne\u011fin, k\u0131\u015f uykusundan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 (fenoloji) de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinden olu\u015fur. Bir di\u011fer cevap, ne uzamsal ne de zamansald\u0131r; yani, t\u00fcrler, mevcut uygun iklimsel ko\u015fullar\u0131 ne uzamsal ne de zamansal olarak takip etmeksizin, bulunduklar\u0131 yerdeki yeni iklimsel ko\u015fullara uyum sa\u011flar (\u00f6rne\u011fin, fizyolojik cevaplar; Bellard et al. 2012).<\/p>\n

\"\"Yak\u0131n tarihli iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemleri nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6zlemler neler s\u00f6ylemektedir? Bir\u00e7ok biyolojik sistemdeki de\u011fi\u015fimler, antropojenik \u0131s\u0131nma ile ili\u015fkilidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 1990 veya daha sonras\u0131nda sonlanan, en az 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir periyodu kapsayan ve \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim sergileyen biyolojik sistemler ile ilgili 28.671 veri serisinden % 90\u2019\u0131, antropojenik \u0131s\u0131nmaya bir cevap olarak beklenen de\u011fi\u015fimin y\u00f6n\u00fcyle uyumlu bir de\u011fi\u015fim sergilemi\u015ftir (H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli, 4. De\u011ferlendirme Raporu, \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Grubu II, Parry et al. 2007). Ancak bu uzun d\u00f6nemli veri serileri aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den herhangi bir veri serisi yoktur. En az\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10-20 y\u0131lda (\u00f6rne\u011fin, step bitkilerinin ilk \u00e7i\u00e7eklenme veya memelilerin k\u0131\u015f uykusundan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f zaman\u0131n\u0131n veya ilgili biyolojik bir de\u011fi\u015fkenin [\u00f6rne\u011fin, k\u0131\u015f uykusuna giri\u015fte veya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta v\u00fccut a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131] uzun y\u0131llar izlenmesine dayal\u0131) bu t\u00fcr uzun d\u00f6nemli veri serileri olu\u015fturularak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de o zaman i\u00e7in\u00a0yak\u0131n tarihte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemleri nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi (yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f) anla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu kapsamda, \u00f6zellikle fenolojik g\u00f6zlemlere y\u00f6nelik veri tabanlar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve\/veya iyile\u015ftirilmesi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r (\u00f6rne\u011fin, USA National Phenology Network, www.usanpn.org; T\u00fcrkiye Fenoloji A\u011f\u0131, trfeno.org).<\/p>\n

Peki, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemler \u00fczerindeki etkisi nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir? Genel olarak d\u00f6rt farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mdan s\u00f6z edilebilir: korelasyon, modelleme, deney ve meta-analiz (Lepetz et al. 2009). Bu yaz\u0131da, sadece modelleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya ile birlikte ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi \u00fczerinden ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (\u00f6rne\u011fin, G\u00fcr 2013).<\/p>\n

Ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi, koruma biyolojisi, ekoloji ve evrimsel biyoloji gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma alanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011ferli biyoco\u011frafi bilgiler sunar ve \u2018t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u2019, \u2018\u00e7evresel ni\u015f\u2019, \u2018habitat uygunluk\u2019 veya \u2018biyoiklimsel \u00e7er\u00e7eve\u2019 modellemesi gibi isimler al\u0131r. Ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi, bir t\u00fcr\u00fcn co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek i\u00e7in, ilk olarak t\u00fcr i\u00e7in uygun \u00e7evresel ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve daha sonra bu \u00e7evresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n alansal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 belirler. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir step bitkisinin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 modellenmek isteniyor. \u0130lk olarak, t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m verisi (co\u011frafi koordinat cinsinden bitkinin g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi yerler) bu yerlerin \u00e7evresel ve\/veya alansal \u00f6zellikleri ile ili\u015fkilendirilerek, bitkinin nemli killi topraklar \u00fczerinde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirlenir; yani, bitki i\u00e7in uygun \u00e7evresel ko\u015fullar tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. Daha sonra, killi topra\u011fa sahip ve y\u00fcksek ya\u011f\u0131\u015f alan co\u011frafi yerler belirlenerek, bitkinin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 tahminlenir; yani, bitki i\u00e7in uygun \u00e7evresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n alansal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 belirlenir. Ancak bir t\u00fcr\u00fcn uygun \u00e7evresel ko\u015fullara sahip t\u00fcm co\u011frafi yerlerde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen bir\u00e7ok neden (\u00f6rne\u011fin, dispersali s\u0131n\u0131rlayan co\u011frafi bariyerler, di\u011fer t\u00fcrler ile rekabet) vard\u0131r. Yine de, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, de\u011ferli biyoco\u011frafi bilgiler sunar. B\u00f6ylece, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi, t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m verisini (co\u011frafi koordinat cinsinden t\u00fcrlerin g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi yerler) bu yerlerin \u00e7evresel ve\/veya alansal \u00f6zellikleri (co\u011frafi bilgi sistemine dayal\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m kullan\u0131larak elde edilen \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00e7evresel [\u00f6rne\u011fin, iklimsel] ve\/veya alansal [\u00f6rne\u011fin, rak\u0131m] de\u011fi\u015fken) ile ili\u015fkilendirerek, t\u00fcrlerin co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tahminleyen -co\u011frafi uzamdaki t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m ve \u00e7evresel verilerden olu\u015fturulan ve \u00e7evresel uzamda n boyutlu hiperhacim olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ni\u015fi (Hutchinson 1957) co\u011frafi uzama ta\u015f\u0131yan- bir model olu\u015fturur (Pearson 2010; Elith and Leathwick 2009; Mart\u00ednez-Meyer 2012). Bu model, t\u00fcr-iklim e\u015fitli\u011fi (t\u00fcr\u00fcn uygun iklimsel ko\u015fullara sahip t\u00fcm alanlarda da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131) ve zaman boyunca ekolojik ni\u015fin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 kabul edilerek (Nogu\u00e9s-Bravo 2009), t\u00fcrlerin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte veya gelecekteki co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek i\u00e7in, iklim modellerine dayanan yeniden olu\u015fturulan ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve\/veya \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen gelecek iklim verilerine uygulan\u0131r (\u00f6rne\u011fin, G\u00fcr 2013). Bu nedenle, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fi anlamak ve gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en pop\u00fcler yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"Ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi i\u00e7in gereken veri, t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m verisi (co\u011frafi koordinat cinsinden t\u00fcrlerin sadece g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi veya hem g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi hem de g\u00f6zlenmedi\u011fi yerler) ve \u00e7evresel (\u00f6rne\u011fin, biyoiklimsel) veridir. T\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m verisi, \u0130nternet \u00fczerinde mevcut olan t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m veri tabanlar\u0131ndan elde edilebilir (bkz. Richards et al.). \u00d6rne\u011fin, Global Biodiversity Information Facility (www.gbif.org), 1.611.321 t\u00fcre ait (~ % 69\u2019u hayvan ve ~ % 27\u2019si bitki) yakla\u015f\u0131k 640 milyon (~ % 88\u2019i co\u011frafi koordinat cinsinden) da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m kayd\u0131n\u0131n serbest kullan\u0131m\u0131na izin veren bir veri taban\u0131d\u0131r (siteye eri\u015fim tarihi, 14 Aral\u0131k 2015). \u00d6zellikle ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, ge\u00e7mi\u015fi anlamak ve gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu t\u00fcr veri tabanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini daha belirgin hale getirmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m veri tabanlar\u0131na verilebilecek en g\u00fczel \u00f6rneklerden biri, 443 ku\u015f t\u00fcr\u00fcne ait yakla\u015f\u0131k 529 bin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m kayd\u0131n\u0131n serbest kullan\u0131m\u0131na izin veren Ku\u015fBank (www.worldbirds.org\/v3\/turkey.php) veya eKu\u015fbank (ebird.org\/content\/turkey)\u2019t\u0131r (siteye eri\u015fim tarihi, 14 Aral\u0131k 2015; bu veri taban\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131na \u00f6rnek olarak Perkta\u015f et al. 2015a,b; Abolafya et al. 2013 – bkz. ayr\u0131ca Nuhun Gemisi Ulusal Biyolojik \u00c7e\u015fitlilik Veritaban\u0131, www.nuhungemisi.gov.tr). T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ge\u00e7mi\u015fi anlamak ve gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu t\u00fcr veri tabanlar\u0131na daha fazla \u00f6nem verilmelidir. \u00d6zellikle her t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m kayd\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131n g\u00f6zlenen t\u00fcrler i\u00e7in bile \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, farkl\u0131 ama\u00e7lar (\u00f6rne\u011fin, do\u011fa foto\u011fraf\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, amat\u00f6r do\u011fa g\u00f6zlemleri, akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar) ile yap\u0131lan bu t\u00fcr kay\u0131tlar\u0131n t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m veri tabanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n

\u00c7evresel veri, \u0130nternet \u00fczerinde mevcut olan iklim veri tabanlar\u0131ndan elde edilebilir (bkz. Richards et al.). \u00d6rne\u011fin, WorldClim-Global Climate Data (www.worldclim.org), en s\u0131k kullan\u0131lan ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in 19 de\u011fi\u015fkenden olu\u015fan biyoiklimsel verinin serbest kullan\u0131m\u0131na izin veren bir veri taban\u0131d\u0131r (bkz. ayr\u0131ca CliMond: global climatologies for bioclimatic modelling, www.climond.org). Bu veri, ge\u00e7mi\u015f (son buzullararas\u0131 d\u00f6nem, 130-116 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce ve son buzul maksimum, 21 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce), g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz (1950-2000) ve gelecek (\u00f6rne\u011fin, 2050, 2070) i\u00e7in mevcuttur. Yukar\u0131daki \u00f6rneklerde oldu\u011fu gibi, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgesel iklim modellerine dayanan iklim verilerinin serbest kullan\u0131ma a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcphesiz \u00e7ok de\u011ferli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"Ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi, t\u00fcr da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m ve \u00e7evresel verilere ek olarak ayn\u0131 zamanda modelleme tekniklerine (algoritmalara) ihtiya\u00e7 duyar. Bu algoritmalar\u0131n (bkz. Richards et al.) en etkinlerinden biri, MAXENT yaz\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki (www.cs.princeton.edu\/~schapire\/maxent, Phillips et al. 2004, 2006; Elith et al. 2011) maksimum entropi makine \u00f6\u011frenme algoritmas\u0131d\u0131r (Elith et al. 2006).<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi ile ilgili baz\u0131 \u00f6nerilerde bulunmak gerekirse, 1) t\u00fcr-iklim e\u015fitli\u011fi ve zaman boyunca ekolojik ni\u015fin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 iyi de\u011ferlendirilmelidir, 2) m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse t\u00fcre \u00f6zg\u00fc dispersal yetene\u011fi ve biyotik etkile\u015fimler, modelleme s\u00fcrecine dahil edilmelidir, 3) farkl\u0131 algoritmalar ve (\u00f6zellikle b\u00f6lgesel) iklim modelleri (gelecek i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 temsili konsantrasyon rotalar\u0131 ile birlikte) kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r, 4) m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi ve molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 birlikte ele al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"Molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya, yak\u0131n ili\u015fkili t\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda veya t\u00fcr i\u00e7inde genetik varyasyonun da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen s\u00fcre\u00e7leri anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r (Knowles 2009; Nielsen and Beaumont 2009; Hickerson et al. 2010). Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, n\u00f6tral genetik varyasyon \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn t\u00fcr\u00fcn demografik tarihi ile ilgili bilgi vermesi temeline dayan\u0131r (Avise et al. 1987; Avise 2000). Demografik tarih, populasyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki dalgalanmalar, populasyon ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131 (vikaryant olaylar ve\/veya migrasyon ile farkl\u0131la\u015fma) gibi genetik varyasyon \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcreten demografik olaylardan olu\u015fur. Tan\u0131msal molek\u00fcler filoco\u011frafya s\u00fcreci, ilk olarak filogenetik metotlar kullan\u0131larak filogenetik a\u011fac\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve daha sonra filogenetik a\u011fac\u0131n topolojisi, soy hatlar\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve dallanma olaylar\u0131n\u0131n tahmini tarihleri kullan\u0131larak demografik tarihin \u00e7\u0131karsanmas\u0131 \u015feklinde \u00f6zetlenebilir; yani, filogenetik a\u011fac\u0131n co\u011frafi ba\u011flamda demografik olaylar ile ili\u015fkilendirilmesidir. Ancak, filogenetik a\u011fa\u00e7lar, sadece demografik olaylar hakk\u0131nda de\u011fil, stokastik (rastgele) s\u00fcre\u00e7ler (yani, baz\u0131 bireyler \u00e7ok say\u0131da, baz\u0131 bireyler ise az say\u0131da yavru verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, genetik s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme yoluyla gen soy hatlar\u0131n\u0131n rasgele kaybolmas\u0131) hakk\u0131nda da bilgi i\u00e7erir; bir di\u011fer deyi\u015fle, ayn\u0131 filogenetik a\u011fa\u00e7, farkl\u0131 demografik olaylar (alternatif biyoco\u011frafi senaryolar) ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Bu nedenle, demografik \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar, genetik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin stokastisitesini dikkate alan istatistiksel filoco\u011frafya ile yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130statistiksel filoco\u011frafya, alternatif biyoco\u011frafi senaryolar\u0131n \u00fcretilmesi ve test edilmesine dayan\u0131r (Knowles 2009; Nielsen and Beaumont 2009; Hickerson et al. 2010). Alternatif biyoco\u011frafi senaryolar, ekolojik ni\u015f modellemesi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretilebilir (Richards et al. 2007). DIYABC yaz\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (www.montpellier.inra.fr\/CBGP\/diyabc), molek\u00fcler belirte\u00e7ler kullan\u0131larak demografik \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar yapmak, yani alternatif biyoco\u011frafi senaryolar\u0131 test etmek i\u00e7in, Yakla\u015f\u0131k Bayes Hesaplama metoduna kullan\u0131m\u0131 kolay bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunar (Cornuet et al. 2008). \u0130statistiksel filoco\u011frafya yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n Anadolu i\u00e7in ilk \u00f6rneklerinden biri, Anadolu s\u0131vac\u0131 ku\u015fu ile ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r (Perkta\u015f et al. 2015a).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kaynaklar<\/strong><\/p>\n

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– Elith J., Phillips S.J., Hastie T., Dudik M., Chee Y.E. and Yates C.J. 2011. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions 17: 43-57.<\/p>\n

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– Hutchinson G.E. 1957. Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbor Symposium on Quantitative Biology 22: 415-457.<\/p>\n

– Knowles L.L. 2009. Statistical phylogeography. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 40: 593-612.<\/p>\n

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– Nogu\u00e9s-Bravo D. 2009. Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches. Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 521-531.<\/p>\n

– Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. and Hanson C.E. 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.<\/p>\n

– Pearson R.G. 2010. Species\u2019 distribution modeling for conservation educators and practitioners. Lessons in Conservation 3: 54-89.<\/p>\n

– Perkta\u015f U., G\u00fcr H., Sa\u011flam \u0130.K. and Quintero E. 2015a. Climate-driven range shifts and demographic events over the history of Kr\u00fcper\u2019s Nuthatch. Bird Study 62: 14-28.<\/p>\n

– Perkta\u015f U., G\u00fcr H. and Ada E. 2015b. Historical demography of European green woodpecker: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions. Folia Zoologica 64: 284-295.<\/p>\n

– Phillips S.J., Dud\u00edk M. and Schapire R.E. 2004. A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. In: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Machine Learning, Banff, Alberta, Canada, 4\u20138 July 2004. ACM Press, New York. 655-662.<\/p>\n

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– Richards C.L., Carstens B.C. and Knowles L.L. 2007. Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses. Journal of Biogeography 34: 1833-1845.<\/p>\n

– Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M. and Miller H.L. 2007. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.<\/p>\n

– T.C. \u00c7evre ve \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131. 2013. T\u00fcrkiye \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi 5. Bildirimi. Ankara. <\/u><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130klim, hem D\u00fcnya\u2019da hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fti (\u00f6rne\u011fin, s\u0131cakl\u0131klar artt\u0131 ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri de\u011fi\u015fti) ve de\u011fi\u015fmeye devam edecek. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, insan faaliyetleri, \u00f6zellikle de fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131 sonucu antropojenik sera gazlar\u0131n\u0131n atmosferik yo\u011funlu\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyledir.\u00a0   Bu yaz\u0131da, genel olarak iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin biyolojik sistemler \u00fczerindeki etkisini \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken yayg\u0131n olarak kullan\u0131lan modelleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (molek\u00fcler […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":671,"featured_media":16556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[180,217,232],"tags":[198,266,308,309],"class_list":["post-16555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-143-sayi","category-cevre-bilimleri","category-yerbilimleri","tag-cevre","tag-cografya","tag-iklim","tag-iklim-degisikligi"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/671"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}