K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin nedenleri ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bug\u00fcne kadar y\u00fczlerce kitap, binlerce makale yay\u0131mland\u0131. Konuyla ilgili bilimsel yay\u0131n faaliyetinin h\u0131zlanarak artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek zor de\u011fil. Bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131 da siyaset d\u00fcnyas\u0131 gibi par\u00e7al\u0131. Bu konuda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan biliminsanlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin end\u00fcstrile\u015fme ve \u015fehirle\u015fmeyle alakal\u0131 insan etkinliklerinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ederek, karbon sal\u0131m\u0131na neden olan end\u00fcstri faaliyetlerinin planlanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 talep ederken, di\u011fer bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ise iklim de\u011fi\u015fiminin gezegenimizin tarihi i\u00e7inde do\u011fal bir evre oldu\u011funu, istisnai iklim olaylar\u0131n\u0131n abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek, bu kayg\u0131larla yery\u00fcz\u00fcndeki insan etkinliklerine m\u00fcdahale edilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemler konusunda tamamen z\u0131t konumlarda bulunuyor olsalar da, her iki tarafta ve bu taraflar aras\u0131ndaki yelpazede farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleriyle, tav\u0131rlar\u0131yla \u00e7e\u015fitli bi\u00e7imde konumlanan biliminsanlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin hakikili\u011fini kabul etmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kitab\u0131n yazarlar\u0131 birinci grup i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan, belki de iklimbilimci olmay\u0131p bilim ve teknoloji tarihi alan\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor olmalar\u0131n\u0131n kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla konuya farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131yorlar. K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fiminin toplumlar\u0131n iktisadi, sosyal, siyasal ya\u015famlar\u0131n\u0131 yerel ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015fmak istiyorlar. Bu tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze tablolar, grafikler y\u0131\u011farak baz\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klardan bahsetmek ve bunlar \u00fczerine tahminler y\u00fcr\u00fctmek yerine, 400 y\u0131l sonraki gelecekten uygarl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bug\u00fcnlerini de kapsayan ge\u00e7mi\u015fimize \u00c7inli bir tarih\u00e7inin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bakmay\u0131 deneyerek yapmay\u0131 tercih ediyorlar. Bu kitap, bir iklimbilim kitab\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, ne bir tarih kitab\u0131, ne de ger\u00e7eklikten kopuk, tamamen hayal \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc bir bilimkurgu roman\u0131. Mevcut veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bilimsel a\u00e7\u0131dan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere dayand\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan bir kurgu tarih denemesi denebilir belki.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnya egemenli\u011finde 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l: \u201cYar\u0131 G\u00f6lge \u00c7a\u011f\u0131\u201d ve \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d <\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7inli anlat\u0131c\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re, 24. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n tarih\u00e7ileri \u201cYar\u0131 G\u00f6lge \u00c7a\u011f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 d\u00fcnyay\u0131, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 koruyacak k\u00fcresel s\u00fcre\u00e7leri geli\u015ftirmek ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle ilgili bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve devletlerin i\u015fbirli\u011fiyle olu\u015fturulan Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019in (IPCC) [H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli] kuruldu\u011fu 1988 y\u0131l\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131yor. Bir y\u0131l sonra \u201cOzon Tabakas\u0131n\u0131 \u0130nceltici Gazlara Dair Montreal Protokol\u00fc\u201dn\u00fcn y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi, 1992\u2019de Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00c7er\u00e7eve S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi\u2019nin imzalanmas\u0131yla devam eden s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden kar\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 da harekete ge\u00e7iriyor. Ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7okuluslu \u015firketlerle onlara ba\u011fl\u0131 bilim ve b\u00fcrokrasi \u00e7evrelerinin \u00e7ekti\u011fi \u201cmuhalefet\u201d, \u00f6nce ABD, sonra zaman i\u00e7inde Kanada, Avustralya ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da devlet politikalar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek d\u00fczeyde etkili olabiliyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, s\u00fcrecin durdurulmas\u0131 ad\u0131na konu hakk\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan biliminsanlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131, \u015fantaj ve tehditle nas\u0131l engellendikleri, tan\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fumuz baz\u0131 tarihsel \u00f6rneklerle okura an\u0131msat\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarih\u00e7imiz, isimleriyle adeta Orwell\u2019\u0131n 1984<\/em>\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn kavramlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran \u201cDeniz Seviyelerindeki Y\u00fckselmenin \u0130nk\u00e2r\u0131 Tasar\u0131s\u0131\u201d, ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n konferanslara kat\u0131lma ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015fma \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklerini k\u0131s\u0131tlayan \u201cKamu Harcamalar\u0131 Mesuliyet Yasas\u0131\u201d gibi ABD\u2019de 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00fcndeme gelen tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar olarak i\u015faret ettikten sonra, 2025\u2019te \u201cABD Milli \u0130stikrar\u0131 Koruma Kanunu\u201d sayesinde y\u00fczlerce biliminsan\u0131n\u0131n \u201ctoplumun g\u00fcvenli\u011fini ve refah\u0131n\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131 tehditlerle tehlikeye atmak\u201d su\u00e7uyla yarg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve mahk\u00fbm edildi\u011fini anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n S\u00f6z\u00fc edilen bask\u0131lar bir yana, bilim pratiklerinin dayand\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kat\u0131 pozitivist anlay\u0131\u015f gere\u011fi, \u201cistatistiksel anlaml\u0131l\u0131k\u201d, \u201c%95 kesinlik\u201d gibi a\u011f\u0131r kan\u0131tlama kriterleriyle bo\u011fu\u015fan bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcyle kavramakta ve bu konuda harekete ge\u00e7mekte zaten \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 kal\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya siyasetine y\u00f6n veren neoliberal \u201cpiyasa k\u00f6ktencileri\u201d ise, i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olduklar\u0131 \u201ckarbon yakma te\u015fkilat\u0131\u201d ile birlikte 2000\u2019li y\u0131llardan ba\u015flayarak 2050\u2019lere kadar her y\u0131l kendi rekorunu k\u0131ran s\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011ferleriyle, \u201ck\u0131\u015fs\u0131z\u201d y\u0131llarla, bu y\u0131llar\u0131n kurak yazlar\u0131yla, k\u0131tl\u0131klar, kitlesel g\u00f6\u00e7ler ve salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klarla dolu bir d\u00fcnya kuruyorlar. 2050\u2019lerde b\u00fcy\u00fck felaketler ya\u015fatt\u0131klar\u0131 toplumlar\u0131n da kendilerini zorlamas\u0131yla bir \u015feyler yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan d\u00fcnya devletleri ge\u00e7ici \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerle bir s\u00fcre yava\u015flatabilmi\u015f olsalar da, \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6remedikleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 nedeniyle 2073\u2019ten 2093\u2019e kadar, Bat\u0131 uygarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da, serbest piyasa ekonomisinin de, demokrasinin de sonunu getirecek olan B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u2019\u00fc ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f oluyorlar.<\/p>\n \u00c7in ise Yar\u0131 G\u00f6lge \u00c7a\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle de B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcresince planl\u0131 ekonomisi ve devlet m\u00fcdahalecili\u011fi sayesinde ya\u015fanan felaketlere kar\u015f\u0131 yurtta\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan \u00fclkelerine g\u00f6re daha iyi koruyabiliyor. D\u00fcnya toplumlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde itibar kazanan \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti modeli h\u0131zla d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131l\u0131yor ve otoriter rejimler b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkelerde bir daha ne zaman d\u00fc\u015fecekleri belli olmamak \u00fczere iktidara geliyor.<\/p>\n \u00d6zetle, tarih\u00e7imiz Bat\u0131l\u0131 egemenlere \u015funu soruyor: \u201cSonu otoriter devlet m\u00fcdahalecili\u011fine vard\u0131ysa, ne k\u0131ymeti kald\u0131 neoliberalizminizin?\u201d Demek ki, 2393\u2019te bile insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n onca deneyimine ra\u011fmen bu dar kafal\u0131 tarih\u00e7iye \u201cBat\u0131l\u0131 emperyalistler iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden \u00e7ok daha evvel kendi toplumlar\u0131n\u0131 kom\u00fcnizm \u00f6c\u00fcs\u00fcyle bu kadar budalala\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131\u015f, d\u00fcnya halklar\u0131na ve kendi emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00f6yle kirli sava\u015flar a\u00e7mam\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131; belki ne Bat\u0131 ne de \u00c7in bu hallere d\u00fc\u015ferdi\u201d diyen olmam\u0131\u015f. \u0130\u015fte ger\u00e7ek bir kara \u00fctopya.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin nedenleri ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bug\u00fcne kadar y\u00fczlerce kitap, binlerce makale yay\u0131mland\u0131. Konuyla ilgili bilimsel yay\u0131n faaliyetinin h\u0131zlanarak artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek zor de\u011fil. Bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131 da siyaset d\u00fcnyas\u0131 gibi par\u00e7al\u0131. Bu konuda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan biliminsanlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin end\u00fcstrile\u015fme ve \u015fehirle\u015fmeyle alakal\u0131 insan etkinliklerinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":74,"featured_media":16985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[178,217,513],"tags":[198,308,2025],"class_list":["post-16984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-141-sayi","category-cevre-bilimleri","category-kitapcil","tag-cevre","tag-iklim","tag-kuresel-isinma"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t