{"id":36164,"date":"2019-08-17T03:21:13","date_gmt":"2019-08-17T00:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=36164"},"modified":"2019-08-17T01:10:10","modified_gmt":"2019-08-16T22:10:10","slug":"20-yil-sonra-afet-yonetiminde-deprem-olacak-mi-olmayacak-mi-sorusuna-cevap-aramanin-otesine-gectik-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2019\/08\/17\/20-yil-sonra-afet-yonetiminde-deprem-olacak-mi-olmayacak-mi-sorusuna-cevap-aramanin-otesine-gectik-mi","title":{"rendered":"20 y\u0131l sonra afet y\u00f6netiminde “Deprem olacak m\u0131, olmayacak m\u0131?” sorusuna cevap araman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7tik mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130T\u00dc Jeofizik B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc E. \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ve \u00f6zellikle Marmara\u2019da beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem ne zaman g\u00fcndeme gelse bilimsel bulgular\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 yan\u0131 s\u0131ra kahinlik s\u00f6ylemleri de duyuyoruz. Hala \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak m\u0131, olmayacak m\u0131?\u201d sorusunun cevab\u0131na kilitlenen bir medya ortam\u0131 olu\u015fabiliyor ve hatta bilimsel temeli olmayan \u201c\u015eu kadar y\u0131l deprem olmayacak\u201d veya \u201c\u015eu y\u0131l deprem olacak\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fcnden haberler b\u00fcy\u00fck puntolarla \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor. 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminden 20 y\u0131l sonra san\u0131r\u0131m bir muhasebe yapmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

17 A\u011fustos 1999 depremi \u00fclkemizde afetler i\u00e7in risk y\u00f6netiminde, deprem diren\u00e7li kent planlamas\u0131 ve tasar\u0131m\u0131nda, imar\/\u015fehircilik mevzuat\u0131nda, yap\u0131 denetiminde, yerel y\u00f6netimlerin yetkilerinde, kalk\u0131nma politikalar\u0131nda, afet e\u011fitiminde, yerel toplum \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmelerinde, profesyonel m\u00fchendislikte, m\u00fcteahhitlikte ve sigorta d\u00fczeninde, planlamada s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir planlama anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131nda eksik, yanl\u0131\u015f ve yetersizliklerin ve ders al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken ger\u00e7eklerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminden hemen sonra h\u00fck\u00fcmetler baz\u0131 yeni yasalar ve y\u00f6netmelikler y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe koydular. Yap\u0131 denetim, afet sigortas\u0131, afet ve acil durum y\u00f6netimi, kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve imar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ilgili yeni yasalarla tan\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Bu yasalara dayanarak baz\u0131 uygulamalar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Marmara B\u00f6lgesinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ili olan \u0130stanbul ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Marmara Denizi\u2019nde ve \u00e7evresindeki illerde olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem ile ilgili \u00e7ok say\u0131da bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve halen de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ulusal \u00e7apta toplant\u0131lar yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve raporlar haz\u0131rland\u0131. Peki 20 y\u0131l sonra deprem risklerimizi azaltma yolunda ne kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olduk?<\/p>\n

21\u2019nci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n be\u015fte birini bitirdik ancak bug\u00fcn vard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z noktada uluslararas\u0131 afet politikalar\u0131nda \u00f6nerilen risk y\u00f6netimi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yasal ve kurumsal yap\u0131lanmay\u0131 ve toplumsal kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir afet y\u00f6netim d\u00fczenini hen\u00fcz tam anlam\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiremedik.<\/p>\n

\"\"
“17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminden 20 y\u0131l sonra bir muhasebe yapmak gerekiyor”<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

N\u00fcfusu 17 milyona do\u011fru artan ve artmaya da devam edece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lan \u0130stanbul mega-\u015fehrinin \u00e7evresindeki iller dahil \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 65 olas\u0131l\u0131kla 7,0 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depreme maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131 bilim camias\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan genel kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Her y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2 oran\u0131nda artan bu tehlike hem Marmara\u2019y\u0131 \u015fiddetle sarsacak ve hem de t\u0131rmanma y\u00fcksekli\u011fi 5 metreye varacak y\u00fckseklikte tsunamiye neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu tehlikeye ra\u011fmen \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi\u2019nin yetkin yerli\/yabanc\u0131 kurulu\u015flara yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki mikrob\u00f6lgeleme ve deprem senaryosundaki (*), 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki \u0130stanbul Deprem Master Plan\u0131\u2019ndaki (**), 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki \u0130stanbul \u00c7evre D\u00fczeni Plan\u0131\u2019ndaki ve 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa ve Anadolu yakas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan deprem ve tsunami i\u00e7in mikrob\u00f6lgeleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndaki (***) risk azaltma konusundaki tespit, \u00f6neri ve kararlar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle kadim \u015fehir \u0130stanbul\u2019un n\u00fcfusunun ve risklerinin daha da artmas\u0131na neden olunmu\u015ftur. Daha \u00f6nce tespit edilen ve haritalanan s\u0131v\u0131la\u015fma ve heyelan gibi en riskli alanlardaki yap\u0131lar\u0131n ve yerle\u015fmelerin riskleri azaltacak bi\u00e7imde d\u00fczenlenmesi gerekirken tam tersine riskli alanlarda yeni yap\u0131la\u015fma ve yo\u011funla\u015fmalar ile riskler daha da artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. I\u0307stanbul\u2019da yap\u0131lan kentsel do\u0308nu\u0308s\u0327u\u0308m ve yenileme uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n deprem risklerini azaltma konusu tart\u0131s\u0327mal\u0131 bir duruma gelmis\u0327, yog\u0306un go\u0308c\u0327 su\u0308rmesine rag\u0306men I\u0307stanbul\u2019da konut stoku fazlas\u0131 olus\u0327mus\u0327, birc\u0327ok ilc\u0327ede yog\u0306unluklar daha da artm\u0131s\u0327, donat\u0131 alanlar\u0131, afet tahliye alanlar\u0131, yes\u0327il alanlar azalm\u0131s\u0327, siluet tart\u0131s\u0327malar\u0131 c\u0327\u0131km\u0131s\u0327, s\u0327ehir kimlig\u0306i bozulmaya bas\u0327lam\u0131s\u0327, yas\u0327anabilir meka\u0302n sag\u0306lama go\u0308revi unutulmus\u0327, y\u0131llar \u201cyatay yap\u0131las\u0327ma\u201d ve \u201cdikey yap\u0131las\u0327ma\u201d gibi anlams\u0131z so\u0308ylemlerle gec\u0327mis\u0327tir.<\/p>\n

Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yasas\u0131 ile bir yandan deprem risklerinin azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 izlenimi verilirken, di\u011fer yandan imar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 yasas\u0131yla risk durumu ne olursa olsun \u201cYap\u0131n\u0131n depreme dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hususu malikin sorumlulu\u011fundad\u0131r\u201d <\/em>denilmektedir. Vatanda\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yasas\u0131 ile s\u00f6zde deprem g\u00fcvenli ya\u015fam i\u00e7in zorunlu uygulamalara sokulurken, imar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoluyla riskli yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde \u201cNe haliniz varsa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u201d<\/em> anlam\u0131nda tuhaf bir duruma terk edilmektedir. \u0130stanbul Deprem Master Plan\u0131 (**) raftan indirilip derhal revize edilmeli ve uygulamaya konmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Afet risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde yerel y\u00f6netimlerin yetki ve sorumluluk alanlar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi gerekir. Belediye mevzuat\u0131nda afet y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli eksiklikler vard\u0131r ve en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede mevzuat g\u00fcncellenmelidir. Tehlike ve riskler konusunda bilgiler ve \u00f6nlem yollar\u0131 toplumla payla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Afet risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ancak her d\u00fczeyde y\u00f6neticiler ve halk\u0131n konuyla ilgili fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 oran\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fabilir. E\u011fitim ve do\u011fru bilgilendirme fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmak i\u00e7in iki \u00f6nemli unsurdur. \u0130yi koordine edilmi\u015f bir toplumsal kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k, risk azaltma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r. Depremle ilgili bilgi kirlenmesi, spek\u00fclatif ve \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 beyanlar toplumda bilime g\u00fcven azalmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131ndan fark\u0131ndal\u0131k zay\u0131flar. Kamu kurumu y\u00f6neticileri, \u00fcniversiteler, sivil toplum \u00f6rg\u00fctleri, siyasi parti y\u00f6neticileri halk\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve deste\u011fini ald\u0131klar\u0131 oranda risk azaltma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilirler. B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehirlerdeki il\u00e7elerde afet ve acil durum y\u00f6netimi \u015fubeleri kurulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Mahalle Afet G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcleri d\u00fczeni geli\u015ftirilmelidir. Toplumun her katman\u0131nda i\u015f birli\u011finin ve kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n yararl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar verece\u011fi inanc\u0131 yerle\u015fmelidir.<\/p>\n

Bu inanc\u0131 sarsacak yozla\u015fmalar ve rant kavgalar\u0131, risk azaltma s\u00fcrecini bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck afete kadar baltalayacakt\u0131r. Her yerel y\u00f6netim alan\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafyas\u0131 ve yerle\u015fme \u00f6zellikleri farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re tehlike ve riskler s\u0131n\u0131flanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Mek\u00e2nsal planlarda farkl\u0131 tehlike ve riskler i\u00e7in ilke ve standartlar geli\u015ftirilmelidir. Kamu yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n mutlaka afet g\u00fcvenli ve afet sonras\u0131 hizmet verebilecek birimler olarak haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekir. Dezavantajl\u0131 topluluklar, tarihi yap\u0131lar, m\u00fczeler vb. gibi birimler \u00f6zel korumaya al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehirlerde emniyet, ambulans, itfaiye, jandarma, belediye afet koordinasyon birimi vb gibi farkl\u0131 bakanl\u0131klara ve kurumlara bag\u0306l\u0131 o\u0308rgu\u0308tler halen farkl\u0131 telefon numaralar\u0131 ile hizmet etmekte ve tesisleri farkl\u0131 yerlerdedir. B\u00fcy\u00fck illerde tek numara \u00fczerinden 112 C\u0327ag\u0306r\u0131 Merkezi Mu\u0308du\u0308rlu\u0308kleri kuruldug\u0306unda tu\u0308m bu unsurlar\u0131n ilgili yo\u0308netmelik gereg\u0306i bir \u00e7at\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Son 119 y\u0131lda, bu\u0308yu\u0308klu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308 en az 6,0 olan 216 adet deprem nedeniyle a\u011f\u0131r can ve mal kay\u0131plar\u0131na u\u011frayan ve son on y\u0131ld\u0131r 7,0\u2019den daha b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olmayan \u00fclkemizde hangi kentimizin ne zaman b\u00f6yle bir tehlike ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemeyiz. Ancak, vurgulamak isterim ki, etkin bir deprem ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki \u00fclkemizde bu on y\u0131ll\u0131k sessiz s\u00fcre \u015fansl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n

\n

*\u0130BB-JICA Raporu, 2002. Pacific Consultants International, OYO Corporation, \u201cThe Study on a Disaster Prevention \/ Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul Including Seismic Microzonation in the Republic of Turkey\u201d, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) taraf\u0131ndan \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi (\u0130BB)\u2019ye sunulan rapor.<\/p>\n

** \u0130stanbul \u0130\u00e7in Deprem Master Plan\u0131 (\u0130DMP), 2003. \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi, Planlama ve \u0130mar Dairesi, Zemin Ve Deprem \u0130nceleme M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130stanbul Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Orta Do\u011fu Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Y\u0131ld\u0131z Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, 7 Temmuz 2003, 1344 sayfa.<\/p>\n

*** \u0130BB-OYO, 2009. Deprem R\u0131\u0307sk Yo\u0308net\u0131\u0307m\u0131\u0307 ve Kentsel I\u0307y\u0131\u0307les\u0327t\u0131\u0307rme Da\u0131\u0307re Bas\u0327kanl\u0131g\u0306\u0131, Deprem ve Zem\u0131\u0307n I\u0307nceleme Mu\u0308du\u0308rlu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308, Anadolu Yakas\u0131 M\u0131\u0307krobo\u0308lgeleme Rapor ve Har\u0131\u0307talar\u0131n\u0131n Yap\u0131lmas\u0131, Ana Rapor, Kas\u0131m 2009, \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi – Oyo International Corporation, 864 Sayfa. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130T\u00dc Jeofizik B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc E. \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ve \u00f6zellikle Marmara\u2019da beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem ne zaman g\u00fcndeme gelse bilimsel bulgular\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 yan\u0131 s\u0131ra kahinlik s\u00f6ylemleri de duyuyoruz. Hala \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak m\u0131, olmayacak m\u0131?\u201d sorusunun cevab\u0131na kilitlenen bir medya ortam\u0131 olu\u015fabiliyor ve hatta bilimsel temeli olmayan \u201c\u015eu kadar y\u0131l deprem olmayacak\u201d veya \u201c\u015eu y\u0131l deprem olacak\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":233,"featured_media":36165,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[691,5207,5205,5206,4061],"class_list":["post-36164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilim-gundemi","tag-deprem","tag-harita","tag-istanbul","tag-plan","tag-risk"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/233"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36164"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36164\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}