Bu y\u0131l 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminin 20. y\u0131l\u0131 dolmu\u015f oluyor. Bu y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc vesilesi ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck can kayb\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerinin yeniden sorgulanmas\u0131, Marmara Denizi\u2019ne ilerleyen Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 ile ilgili yap\u0131lan yeni \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n halk\u0131m\u0131zla payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, Marmara\u2019da olas\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fck depreme haz\u0131r olunmas\u0131 ve gelecekteki olas\u0131 bu depremin \u0130stanbul ve \u00e7evredeki di\u011fer \u015fehirlerde olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131p risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 konular\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekir. Marmara\u2019da beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem ne zaman g\u00fcndeme gelse bilimsel bulgular yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u00e2hinlik s\u00f6ylemleri de duyar\u0131z. Bu yaz\u0131m\u0131n amac\u0131 hem \u201cMarmara\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak m\u0131 olmayacak m\u0131?\u201d sorusunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c\u015f\u00fcphenin\u201d giderilmesine y\u00f6nelik bilimsel bulgular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak, hem de deprem risklerini azaltma eylemlerinin do\u011fru stratejilerle h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gere\u011fine de\u011finmektir. Ancak, \u0130stanbul\u2019da deprem korkusu bahane edilerek yaln\u0131zca rant ama\u00e7l\u0131 y\u0131k-yap gibi plans\u0131z ve yo\u011funluk art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ve \u00e7evre, imar ve \u015fehir planc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilimine ayk\u0131r\u0131 imar ve s\u00f6zde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 onaylamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 da \u00f6zellikle belirtmek isterim.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ve Marmara\u2019n\u0131n deprem etkinli\u011finin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde durumu T\u00fcrkiye ve yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinde 1900 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2019 Nisan\u2019a kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 4,0 ve daha fazla olan deprem say\u0131s\u0131 toplam 14.262 adettir (\u015eekil 1). Bunlar\u0131n 36 tanesi 7,0 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck, 180 tanesi 6,0 ile 6,9 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aras\u0131ndad\u0131r (\u015eekil 2). Bu depremler sonucunda 86.802 kis\u0327i hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmis\u0327 ve 597.865 konut ag\u0306\u0131r hasar go\u0308rmu\u0308s\u0327t\u00fcr (4). 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminin ikincil etkiler dahil makro-ekonomik maliyetleri 20 milyar ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na yak\u0131n olmu\u015ftur. Afet ve Acil Durum Y\u00f6netimi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (AFAD) kaynaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re Tu\u0308rkiye\u2019de ortalama her bes\u0327 y\u0131lda bir genis\u0327 c\u0327apta can ve mal kayb\u0131na neden olan bu\u0308yu\u0308k bir deprem yas\u0327anmaktad\u0131r. Depremler nedeniyle y\u0131lda yaklas\u0327\u0131k 1000 kis\u0327inin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybettig\u0306i ve 2100 kis\u0327inin de yaraland\u0131g\u0306\u0131; yine ortalama 7000\u2019den fazla binan\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131g\u0306\u0131 veya ag\u0306\u0131r derecede hasar go\u0308rdu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308 resmi raporlara ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir (4).<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye ve \u00e7evresinde 1900 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra olmu\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 4,5 ve daha fazla olan depremler i\u00e7in hesaplanm\u0131\u015f sismik enerjinin zamana g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fimi incelendi\u011finde (\u015eekil 3), 1904-1956 d\u00f6neminde kuvvetli depremler nedeniyle sismik enerji \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksektir. Bu tarihten sonra 1990\u2019lara kadar sismik enerji \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f ve 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depremi ve sonras\u0131 sismik enerji \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 artmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1999 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sismik enerji art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan depremler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 17 A\u011fustos 1999, 12 Kas\u0131m 1999 (D\u00fczce), 23 Ekim 2011 (Van) ve 12 Kas\u0131m 2017 (\u0130ran) depremleridir. Ancak 1970 \u00f6ncesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ve yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinde sismik enerji \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda beklenenden az olmu\u015ftur. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye ve \u00e7evresinde b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde yorumlanabilir. \u00d6nemli bir deprem ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in bu sismik enerji bo\u015flu\u011fu d\u00f6nemi, \u00f6zellikle deprem tehlikesi y\u00fcksek b\u00f6lgelerdeki kent y\u00f6neticileri taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 Adapazar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ana kola ayr\u0131larak yan kollar\u0131yla birlikte n\u00fcfusu 20 milyona varan Marmara b\u00f6lgesini bir pen\u00e7e gibi sarmala\u0131r (\u015eekil 4a). Bu kollar\u0131n en aktif olan\u0131 Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131, \u0130stanbul\u2019un hemen g\u00fcneyine do\u011fu-bat\u0131 do\u011frultusunda yerle\u015fmi\u015f, yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ek-ay\u0131r hareketi ile deniz taban\u0131nda derinlikleri 1100 metreye varan \u00fc\u00e7 tane \u00e7ukur olu\u015fturur (\u015eekil 4). Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 y\u0131lda 2-3 santimetrelik bir kayma h\u0131z\u0131 ile yanal y\u00f6nde hareket eder, y\u00fczbinlerce y\u0131ld\u0131r her b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte deprem yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr. Son 2017 y\u0131lda Marmara b\u00f6lgesi dahilinde b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 6,8 ve daha fazla olan 44 deprem olmu\u015ftur (\u015eekil 4b).<\/p>\n Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 Yass\u0131ada ve Sivriada\u2019ya 3 km, di\u011fer adalar\u0131m\u0131za 8 km, Anadolu yakas\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ortalama 14 km, Avrupa yakas\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ise 10 km ile 24 km aras\u0131nda uzakl\u0131kta konumlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n Marmara Denizi ve \u00e7evresi yerbilimcilerin (jeoloji, jeofizik, jeomorfoloji) her zaman ilgiyle ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 bir yer olmu\u015ftur. 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depremi sonras\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ivme kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ba\u015fta Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 olmak \u00fczere Marmara Denizi taban\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131ran tehlike yaratacak faylar yeniden haritalanm\u0131\u015f, tehlike d\u00fczeyleri belirlenmi\u015f (\u015eekil 4) ve olas\u0131 depremler i\u00e7in kay\u0131p senaryolar\u0131 \u00fcretilmi\u015ftir (5, 6, 7). Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Marmara b\u00f6lgesinin deprem tehlikesine y\u00f6nelik \u00e7ok say\u0131da ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 bilimsel makale ve rapor yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve incelemeler halen s\u00fcrmekte ve tehlikenin boyutu hakk\u0131nda bilgiler ilgili kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan halka ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye deprem tehlike haritas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti \u00dclke, b\u00f6lge ve kent planlama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda maruz kal\u0131nabilecek risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik uygulamalara ve senaryolara altl\u0131k olu\u015fturmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan deprem tehlike haritalar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in her zaman \u00f6nemli bir konu olmu\u015ftur. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de deprem tehlike haritas\u0131 ilk kez 1945 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f, daha sonra 1947, 1963, 1972 ve 1996 y\u0131llar\u0131nda yenilenmi\u015ftir (6).<\/p>\n 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6nemli eksikliklerden hareketle 2007\u2019de yap\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesine y\u00f6nelik bir yenileme yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, daha kapsaml\u0131 bir deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi ve deprem tehlike haritas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedense biraz ge\u00e7 kal\u0131narak 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flat\u0131labilmi\u015ftir. Yeni T\u00fcrkiye Bina Deprem Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi ve Deprem Tehlike Haritas\u0131 1 Ocak 2019 tarihinde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmi\u015ftir (8). Tehlike haritas\u0131n\u0131n hesab\u0131na esas olarak 32-45 derece kuzey enlemleri ve 23-48 derece do\u011fu boylamlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda kalan tarihsel depremler (1900 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nem) ile 1900-2012 tarihleri aras\u0131nda olan aletsel d\u00f6nem depremleri yeniden derlenmi\u015f ve diri faylarla ili\u015fkileri de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015ftir. Bu ba\u011flamda T\u00fcrkiye ve \u00e7evresindeki 553 adet diri fay yeniden s\u0131n\u0131flanm\u0131\u015f, deprem kaynak ku\u015faklar\u0131 belirlenmi\u015f ve olas\u0131 depremlerin yaratabilece\u011fi en b\u00fcy\u00fck yer hareketleri belirlenmi\u015ftir (\u015eekil 5).<\/p>\n En b\u00fcy\u00fck yer ivmesi (PGA) ve 0,2 saniye ve 1,0 saniyelik periyotlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen ivme de\u011ferleri ve farkl\u0131 yineleme d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in (2475, 475, 72 ve 43 y\u0131l) e-devlet WEB sayfas\u0131 \u00fczerinden toplam 12 deprem tehlike haritas\u0131 hizmete sunulmu\u015ftur (\u015eekil 5). Haritadaki olas\u0131 sismik tehlike de\u011ferleri, kaya zemin durumu baz al\u0131narak zeminin sismik S dalgas\u0131 h\u0131z\u0131 Vs30<\/sub> = 760 m\/s de\u011feri i\u00e7in hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, en b\u00fcy\u00fck partik\u00fcl h\u0131z\u0131 ve periyoda ba\u011fl\u0131 partik\u00fcl h\u0131z\u0131 haritalar\u0131 da hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yeni deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ilk kez y\u00fcksek yap\u0131lar i\u00e7in de kurallar getirmi\u015ftir. Y\u00f6netmelikte 30 kat ve daha y\u00fcksek yap\u0131lar\u0131n deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda hareketlerinin kaydedilmesi i\u00e7in bina \u00fczerinde belirlenecek noktalara deprem ivme kay\u0131t\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 yerle\u015ftirilmesi ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 zorunlulu\u011fu getirilmektedir. Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin deprem tehlikesi ve \u0130stanbul Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019ndan hidrokarbon gazlar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve fay\u0131n kilitlenmesi Marmara\u2019da hidrokarbon gaz\u0131 (*)<\/sup> ve deprem ili\u015fkisi<\/strong>: 2008 ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda Geli ve ekibi Marmara Denizi\u2019nde yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda (14, 15), Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok noktas\u0131nda hidrokarbon gaz\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun oradaki diri faylarla ili\u015fkisi oldu\u011funu bilimsel bulgulara dayanarak g\u00f6stermi\u015flerdi. 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lan bilimsel yay\u0131n\u0131n (15) \u00f6zet b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u015f\u00f6yledir: \u201c\u2026 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda olan \u0130zmit ve D\u00fczce\u2019nin y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 depremlerinden sonra bug\u00fcne kadar olan s\u00fcrede Marmara Denizi\u2019nde uzanan Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 (\u0130stanbul sismik bo\u015flu\u011funu i\u00e7eren b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc dahil) boyunca depremsellik \u00f6zellikleri, fay\u0131n mekanik davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (s\u00fcnme ve kilitlenme) anlamak ad\u0131na kapsaml\u0131 olarak incelenmi\u015ftir. Fay\u0131n deprem etkinli\u011fi (depremsellik) \u015fimdiye kadar yaln\u0131zca tektonik kaynakl\u0131 olarak yorumlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (KMF) \u00e7ok say\u0131da hidrokarbon gaz\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kesip ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bilinmektedir. Bu makalede (b), Marmara Denizi\u2019nin bat\u0131s\u0131ndaki 25 Temmuz 2011 tarihli M 5,1 depremini izleyen \u00e7ok say\u0131da art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n, bas\u0131n\u00e7l\u0131 gaz\u0131n yerle\u015fti\u011fi 1,5-5 km derinlik aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve KMF boyunca y\u00fczeydeki tortul tabakalar\u0131na kadar g\u00f6\u00e7 eden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bas\u0131n\u00e7l\u0131 gaz haznesi b\u00f6lgesinde olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdik. Bu nedenle, \u0130stanbul\u2019un k\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6tesi deniz alan\u0131 i\u00e7erisindeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem etkinli\u011finin (b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc M=3\u2019den k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck) sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yorumu i\u00e7in deniz taban\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki do\u011fal gazla ili\u015fkisi dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n Bu bulguyla ilgili olarak ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n m\u00fcelliflerinden biri olan Marco Banhoff (GFZ-Potsdam-Almanya) bu bulgular\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve \u0130stanbul beklenen deprem tehlikesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini, var olan b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem tehlikesine ek olarak faylar\u0131n kesti\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck gaz yataklar\u0131n\u0131n deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck patlamalar yapabilece\u011fini ve bu tehlikenin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn kilitlenmesi bulgusu<\/strong>: Marmara Denizi\u2019ndeki Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar \u00e7e\u015fitli bilimsel y\u00f6ntem ve yakla\u015f\u0131mlarla s\u00fcrmektedir. Bunlardan biri de ge\u00e7enlerde Nature Communication<\/em> dergisinde yay\u0131nland\u0131 (16). Makalenin ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c\u0130stanbul a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda deniz taban\u0131ndaki Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019nda (Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131) intersismik (iki deprem aras\u0131) d\u00f6nemde gerinim (strain) birikimi\u201d. Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kumburgaz \u00e7ukuru ile \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k \u00e7ukuru aras\u0131ndaki par\u00e7as\u0131na odaklanan bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ait makalenin \u00f6zetinde \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klama var: \u201c\u2026 Deniz taban\u0131nda jeodezik g\u00f6zlemler, Marmara Denizi\u2019ndeki Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn (Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131) kilitli oldu\u011funu ve bu nedenle zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu fay par\u00e7as\u0131 boyunca gerilme birikimi daha \u00f6nce karasal g\u00f6zlemlerden tahmin edilmekteydi veya deprem etkinli\u011finin az olmas\u0131ndan biliniyordu, ancak her iki y\u00f6ntem de tamamen kilitli veya tamamen s\u00fcnen (krip) fay davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131m yapamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir akustik transponder a\u011f\u0131 (akustik uzakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7me ve konum belirleme ayg\u0131t\u0131), 2,5 y\u0131l boyunca deniz taban\u0131ndaki kabuk hareketlerini duyarl\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc ve \u00f6nemli bir fay yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi saptayamad\u0131. Okyanus dibi deprem kay\u0131t\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan izlenen seyrek deprem etkinli\u011fi ile birlikte fay hareketinin olmamas\u0131, en az 3 km derinli\u011fe ve olas\u0131l\u0131kla kristal temel kayalar i\u00e7erisinde tam bir kilitlenme oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. O b\u00f6lgedeki 1766 b\u00fcy\u00fck depreminde olu\u015fan faylanmadan bu yana en az 4 m olan kayma a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, Marmara Denizi\u2019nde \u0130stanbul a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda 7,1 ile 7,4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015febilecek depreme e\u015fde\u011fer olacakt\u0131r.\u201d Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n sonucu da Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n deprem enerjisi biriktirdi\u011fini ve gelecekte bir g\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131larak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin ba\u015fta \u0130stanbul ve Marmara Denizi \u00e7evresindeki yerle\u015fimleri etkileyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemektedir (\u015eekil 4).<\/p>\n Tarihsel depremlerin de hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplar\u0131na g\u00f6re Marmara Denizi i\u00e7erisinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n % 65\u2019e eri\u015fti\u011fi, her y\u0131l bu oran\u0131n % 2 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (13). Bu bulgu deprembilim \u00e7evresinde geni\u015f bir kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n \u0130stanbul k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in tsunami tehlikesi nedir? Depremin s\u0131\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na, deniz derinli\u011fine, kayna\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne, fay bloklar\u0131n\u0131n hareket t\u00fcr\u00fcne, dip topo\u011frafyas\u0131na (batimetri) ve k\u0131y\u0131 \u015fekline ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fen tsunami, de\u011fi\u015fen t\u0131rmanma y\u00fckseklikleriyle k\u0131y\u0131lara ula\u015f\u0131r (\u015eekil 7). B\u00fcy\u00fck depremler s\u0131ras\u0131nda tsunaminin k\u0131y\u0131larda t\u0131rmanma y\u00fcksekli\u011fi onlarca metre olabilir. Ege ve Akdeniz\u2019de tsunami uyar\u0131 d\u00fczene\u011finin kurulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131y\u0131da\u015f \u00fclkeler \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yapmaktad\u0131rlar. Karadeniz, Marmara Denizi, Ege Denizi ve Akdeniz\u2019i kapsayan gu\u0308ney Avrupa bo\u0308lgesinde M\u00d6 6150 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bugu\u0308ne kadar olan do\u0308nemde k\u0131y\u0131larda 290 adet tsunami olay\u0131 go\u0308zlenmis\u0327tir. Bilimsel yay\u0131nlara go\u0308re Karadeniz\u2019de kaydedilen tsunami say\u0131s\u0131, 3 tanesi Tu\u0308rkiye k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda olmak \u00fczere toplamda 23\u2019tu\u0308r. Marmara Denizi k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda 43 tsunami, Dog\u0306u Akdeniz\u2019de ise 96 adet tsunami kay\u0131tlara gec\u0327mis\u0327tir. Ege Denizi\u2019nde son 65 y\u0131lda c\u0327ok say\u0131da tsunami olay\u0131 belgelenmi\u015ftir (18, 19).<\/p>\n \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem tehlikesine y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Marmara Denizi\u2019nde deprem ve deniz heyelanlar\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek tsunami de\u011ferleri saptanm\u0131\u015f ve yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi Deprem ve Zemin \u0130nceleme M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Avrupa ve Anadolu Yakas\u0131 Mikro B\u00f6lgeleme Projesi (Y\u00fcklenici Firma: Japonya OYO Int. Co.) kapsam\u0131nda \u201c\u0130stanbul K\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 Etkileyebilecek Tsunamiler i\u00e7in Benzetim ve Hasar G\u00f6rebilirlik Analizi\u201d projesi yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (20).<\/p>\n Bu proje bulgular\u0131na g\u00f6re, Marmara Denizi taban\u0131nda olu\u015facak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin \u0130stanbul k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda olu\u015fturmas\u0131 olas\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck dalga t\u0131rmanma y\u00fcksekli\u011fi ortalama 5,6 m, tsunami dalgas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131lara eri\u015fme zaman\u0131 5-10 dakikad\u0131r (\u015eekil 7). S\u0131\u011f deniz alanlar\u0131, liman ve tekne bar\u0131naklar\u0131, \u0131rmak ve dere a\u011f\u0131zlar\u0131, denizden y\u00fcksekli\u011fe g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmek \u00fczere su k\u00fctlesi k\u0131y\u0131dan 100-150 metre kara i\u00e7erisine girecektir. Marmara Denizi\u2019nde etkili olma s\u00fcresi 90-120 dakika olacakt\u0131r. Depremin Adalar il\u00e7esine (Prens Adalar\u0131) yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse ilk ve en y\u00fcksek tsunami dalgalar\u0131 Yass\u0131ada, Sivriada\u2019ya ula\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n K\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131n dik e\u011fimli denizalt\u0131 yamac\u0131 \u00fczerinde birikmi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda al\u00fcvyon\/\u00e7amur k\u00fctleler heyelan i\u00e7in kritik duruma geldi\u011finde veya bir depremin tetiklenmesiyle heyelan harekete ge\u00e7erek k\u0131y\u0131larda tsunami yaratabilir. \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in mikro-b\u00f6lgeleme et\u00fctleri \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015ftir (7). Kuvvetli bir deprem olmasa bile var olan yerbilimsel ko\u015fullar ve orta kuvvetteki deprem etkinli\u011fi nedeniyle \u0130stanbul k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201cdepremsiz tsunami\u201d ya\u015fama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir.<\/p>\n Tsunamiye haz\u0131rl\u0131k ve sak\u0131nma i\u00e7in; yerle\u015fim b\u00f6lgelerinin nerelerinde, hangi ko\u015fullarda ve ne y\u00fcksekliklerde sular alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 bilgisi uygulama imar planlar\u0131na i\u015flenmelidir, tsunami tehlikeli alanlarda gece\/g\u00fcnd\u00fcz se\u00e7enekleri i\u00e7in risk ve kay\u0131p senaryolar\u0131 belirlenmeli ve sak\u0131n\u0131m planlar\u0131 yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r, riskleri azaltacak \u00f6nlem ve \u00f6neriler her \u00f6l\u00e7ekte imar plan notlar\u0131na i\u015flenmelidir ve Marmara ve di\u011fer denizlerimiz i\u00e7in ak\u0131ll\u0131 \u201ctsunami erken uyar\u0131 d\u00fczene\u011fi\u201d kurulmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Deprem g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00f6nceden haber verilemiyor Tahmin (olas\u0131l\u0131k) ve depremi \u00f6nceden haber verme s\u0131k\u00e7a kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan iki kavram olmaktad\u0131r. Olas\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6ntemlerinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda deprem ku\u015faklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 bir depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hesaplamak zor de\u011fil. Ancak bu bilgi depremlerin yerini, olu\u015f zaman\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok kesin olarak bilmemize, yani \u00f6nceden bilerek haber vermeye yetmiyor. Meteorolojik tahminler \u00f6nceden haber verme derecesinde \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir kesinlikle verilebiliyor. Tayfunlar, kas\u0131rgalar uzaydan ve yerden izlenebiliyor ve ne zaman nereye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok kesin s\u00f6ylenebiliyor. Ne yaz\u0131k ki yerbilimleri deprem i\u00e7in bu a\u015famaya hen\u00fcz varamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n E\u011fer depremin yerini, zaman\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceden haber verme a\u015famas\u0131na gelinmi\u015f ise, halka yap\u0131lacak duyuruyu ancak ilgili y\u00f6neticilerin olumlu ve olumsuz t\u00fcm sosyal ve ekonomik etkileri g\u00f6ze alarak yapmalar\u0131 ve ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak sosyo-ekonomik sorunlar\u0131 \u00fcstlenmeleri gerekecektir. Depremin \u00f6nceden haber verilmesiyle ilgili yay\u0131nlanan \u201cAvrupa Konseyi Depremi \u00d6nceden Haber Verme Etik Kurallar\u0131\u201d (22) bu konuda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenleri s\u0131ralam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong>Marmara\u2019da deprem erken uyar\u0131 sistemi var ancak uyar\u0131 s\u00fcresi \u00e7ok k\u0131sa Erken uyar\u0131 topluma \u201cdeprem olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceden haber verme\u201d eylemi de\u011fil, deprem olur olmaz bilgilendirme d\u00fczene\u011fidir. Erken uyar\u0131 d\u00fczeninin ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu d\u00f6rt unsur \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir: a) tehlikenin ve kay\u0131plar\u0131n (risk) en do\u011fru tahmini, b) tehlike izleme ve uyar\u0131 d\u00fczene\u011finin kurulmas\u0131 ve 7\/24 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, c) uyar\u0131n\u0131n iletilmesi ve ileti\u015fim yetenekleri ve d) halk\u0131n ve y\u00f6neticilerin en h\u0131zl\u0131 ve do\u011fru \u015fekilde bilgilendirilerek davranmas\u0131 ve korunmaya ge\u00e7mesinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131. S\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu unsurlar\u0131n herhangi biri aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131 durumunda erken uyar\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Deprem erken uyar\u0131 i\u015flevini yerine getirme amac\u0131yla kurulan sismik a\u011fa \u201cdeprem erken uyar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131\u201d ad\u0131 verilir (\u015eekil 8). Deprem alarm d\u00fczenekleri; n\u00fckleer santrallar, b\u00fcy\u00fck kimya tesisleri, hava alanlar\u0131 ve demiryollar\u0131 gibi yap\u0131lara y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 deprem dalgalar\u0131 (S ve Y\u00fczey dalgalar\u0131) ula\u015fmadan otomatik olarak g\u00fcvenli duruma getirme amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Japon Ulusal Demiryollar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan Acil Deprem Saptama ve Alarm D\u00fczene\u011fi (UrEDAS) ad\u0131yla 1990 sonras\u0131nda bir uygulanma ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. ABD Kaliforniya\u2019da, Meksika\u2019da ve Tayvan\u2019da, nerede ve ne \u015fiddette bir deprem oldu\u011funu topluma, ilgililere ve medyaya internet \u00fczerinden olabildi\u011fince erken sunma denemeleri yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. B\u00dc Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc erken uyar\u0131 ve acil m\u00fcdahale sistemini 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren geli\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in do\u011falgaz ve elektrik ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n deprem an\u0131nda devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir uygulama yapmaktad\u0131r (25).<\/p>\n Deprem i\u00e7in erken uyar\u0131 d\u00fczene\u011fi P ve S dalgalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki h\u0131z fark\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak tasarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Noktasal kaynak varsay\u0131m\u0131ndan hareketle olu\u015fan depremin her 8 km uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in erken uyar\u0131 s\u00fcresi ortalama 1 saniye kadard\u0131r. Erken uyar\u0131 s\u00fcresi depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne, derinli\u011fine, depremi yaratan faylanman\u0131n do\u011frultusuna ve uzunlu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fir (26).<\/p>\n Noktasal bir deprem kayna\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6rne\u011fin deprem 16 km uzaktaysa ortalama 2 saniye, 24 km uzaktaysa ortalama 3 saniye zaman\u0131m\u0131z vard\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck depremlerde deprem fay\u0131n\u0131n konum ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00f6re erken uyar\u0131 s\u00fcresi artabilir. Depreme yak\u0131n alanlarda ve yerle\u015fmelerde bu miktardaki s\u00fcreler pratik bir korunma davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak uzunlukta de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n Akdeniz \u00fclkeleri olas\u0131 bir tsunami i\u00e7in erken uyar\u0131 d\u00fczene\u011fi kurma karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Uyar\u0131 d\u00fczene\u011finin tsunami olu\u015ftuktan sonra yerelde 2-3 dakika i\u00e7erisinde, uzak alanlarda ise 15 dakika i\u00e7erisinde uyar\u0131 verecek yetenekte olmas\u0131 tasarlanmaktad\u0131r (27).<\/p>\n Afet risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130stanbul\u2019un hali Afet risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 projeleri, yoksullu\u011fun ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 stratejilerinin \u00f6nemli bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc geli\u015fmekte olan ve azgeli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin afet kay\u0131plar\u0131 giderek artmakta ve ekonomik kaynaklar\u0131na zarar vermektedir. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019in, 2030 S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir Kalk\u0131nma G\u00fcndemi\u2019nin afet kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel plan\u0131 olan Sendai Afet Riskini Azaltma \u00c7er\u00e7eve Program\u0131 2015-2030\u2019u kabul etmelerinden bu yana \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ldan biraz fazla bir s\u00fcre ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir (30). Bu program, ilgili t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00e7oklu tehlikeler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak, her seviyede afet riskinin y\u00f6netimine rehberlik etmeyi, T\u00fcrkiye dahil t\u00fcm \u00fclkelere \u00f6nermi\u015ftir. G\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f yerel y\u00f6netimler risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sak\u0131n\u0131m planlamas\u0131n\u0131 liyakatli ekiplerce \u00f6d\u00fcns\u00fcz uygulamal\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamal\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, deprem dahil di\u011fer t\u00fcm do\u011fal ve insan kaynakl\u0131 afetlerin risklerini azaltmak istiyorsa d\u00fcnyadaki afet risklerinin y\u00f6netimi konusunda Sendai Afet Risklerini Azaltma \u00c7er\u00e7eve Program\u0131 kararlar\u0131na uymal\u0131 ve kurumsal, yasal ve sosyal d\u00fczenlemeleri ivedi olarak g\u00fcncellemelidir.<\/p>\n H\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7, plans\u0131z \u015fehirle\u015fme ve sanayile\u015fme s\u00fcrecindeki \u00fclkemizde, \u00e7o\u011fu plans\u0131z ve denetimsiz in\u015fa edilen, gittik\u00e7e y\u00fckselen ve yo\u011funla\u015fan binalardan olu\u015fan \u015fehirlerimizin say\u0131s\u0131 ve n\u00fcfusu artarken depremlerden etkilenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015f, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u201c\u015fehir depremleri\u201d s\u00fcrecine girilmi\u015ftir. Bu kadim topraklarda \u015fehir depremleri s\u00fcrecinin ac\u0131 \u00f6rneklerini son 25 y\u0131ld\u0131r daha fazla ya\u015fad\u0131k. 1992 Erzincan, 1995 Dinar ve 1998 Adana-Ceyhan, 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck-\u0130zmit, 1999 D\u00fczce ve 2011 Van-Erci\u015f depremleri son y\u0131llardaki \u015fehir depremlerinin en \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fc ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6rnekleridir.<\/p>\n 1999 depremlerinden sonra, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de al\u0131nan baz\u0131 kararlar\u0131n, yap\u0131lan baz\u0131 olumlu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ve harcanan emeklerin arzu edilen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcretememesi ve genel bir memnuniyet yaratamamas\u0131, topluma risk azaltma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini somut ve inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olarak sunulamamas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Afet risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 afet sonras\u0131 \u201cyara sarma\u201d, \u201cyard\u0131m\u201d ve \u201cev edindirme\u201d olarak alg\u0131l\u0131yorsak, riskler azalt\u0131lamaz.<\/p>\n \u201cSak\u0131n\u0131m Plan\u0131\u201d kavram\u0131 ilk kez 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan Ulusal Deprem Konseyi\u2019nin (UDK) 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cUlusal Deprem Stratejisi\u201d raporunda \u00f6nerilmi\u015ftir (22). Sak\u0131n\u0131m plan\u0131, b\u00fct\u00fcnles\u0327ik afet y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6nemli bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olup (\u015eekil 9); \u00fclke, b\u00f6lge, b\u00fcy\u00fcks\u0327ehir ve kent b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc veya daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yerles\u0327im merkezi d\u00fczeylerinde, her tehlike ve risk t\u00fcr\u00fcne g\u00f6re haz\u0131rlanan mek\u00e2nsal, sosyal, ekonomik, yasal ve y\u00f6netsel \u00f6nlemlerin es\u0327 g\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc sag\u0306layan, farkl\u0131 risk sekt\u00f6rlerine ilis\u0327kin risk azaltma projelerini b\u00fct\u00fcnles\u0327tiren kapsaml\u0131 bir pland\u0131r (31).<\/p>\n Yerel y\u00f6netimler \u201cSak\u0131n\u0131m Plan\u0131\u201d ve bununla ilgili eylem plan\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in sorumlu ve yetkili k\u0131l\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130\u00e7erisinde risk y\u00f6netimi ve sak\u0131n\u0131m plan\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 olmayan bir afet politikas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamaz. Risk belirleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 farkl\u0131 d\u00fczeylerde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclebilir. Bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131nda en karma\u015f\u0131k risk belirleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kent d\u00fczeyinde olan\u0131d\u0131r. Kent ortam\u0131nda tehlike ve risk sekt\u00f6rlerinin belirlenebilmesi i\u00e7in kentin fiziki, ekonomik ve sosyal \u00f6zelliklerinin birlikteli\u011fi g\u00f6zetilmeli ve kent planlama bilimi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme gidilmelidir.<\/p>\n Yerelde do\u011fal ve insan kaynakl\u0131 tehlikelere ili\u015fkin \u00f6nlemler almada ve afet plan\u0131 haz\u0131rlamada mevcut eksiklikler tamamlanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Belediye mevzuat\u0131nda afet y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli eksiklikler vard\u0131r ve en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede mevzuat g\u00fcncellenmelidir. Tehlike ve riskler konusunda bilgiler ve \u00f6nlem yollar\u0131 toplumla payla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Afet risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ancak her d\u00fczeyde y\u00f6neticiler ve halk\u0131n konuyla ilgili fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 oran\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fabilir. E\u011fitim ve do\u011fru bilgilendirme, fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmak i\u00e7in iki \u00f6nemli unsurdur. Bu fark\u0131ndal\u0131k toplumda riskin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Yerelde Mahalle Afet G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcleri (MAG) \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesi geli\u015ftirilmeli ve yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bilimsel yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iyi koordine edilmi\u015f bir toplumsal kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k, risk azaltma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r. Depremle ilgili bilgi kirlenmesi, spek\u00fclatif ve \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 beyanlar toplumda kaosa ve bilime g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131ndan fark\u0131ndal\u0131k istenen d\u00fczeye gelemeyecektir. Kamu kurumu y\u00f6neticileri, \u00fcniversiteler, sivil toplum \u00f6rg\u00fctleri, siyasi parti y\u00f6neticileri halk\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve deste\u011fini ald\u0131klar\u0131 oranda risk azaltma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilirler. Tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir yerel y\u00f6neticinin, bir genel m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fcn veya bir bakan\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6rmesiyle, ki\u015fisel giri\u015fimleriyle sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemez. Toplumun her katman\u0131nda i\u015fbirli\u011finin ve kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n yararl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar verece\u011fi inanc\u0131 yerle\u015fmelidir. Bu inanc\u0131 sarsacak yozla\u015fmalar ve rant kavgalar\u0131, risk azaltma s\u00fcrecini bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck afete kadar baltalayacakt\u0131r. Her yerel y\u00f6netim alan\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafyas\u0131 ve yerle\u015fme \u00f6zellikleri farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re tehlike ve riskler s\u0131n\u0131flanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Mek\u00e2nsal planlarda farkl\u0131 tehlike ve riskler i\u00e7in ilke ve standartlar geli\u015ftirilmelidir. Kamu yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n mutlaka afet g\u00fcvenli ve afet sonras\u0131 hizmet verebilecek birimler olarak haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekir. Dezavantajl\u0131 topluluklar, tarihi yap\u0131lar, m\u00fczeler vb. gibi birimler \u00f6zel korumaya al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ulusal ve k\u00fcresel i\u015fbirlikleri geli\u015ftirilmelidir.<\/p>\n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan I\u0307stanbul Deprem Master Plan\u0131nda (\u0130DMP) il s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 ic\u0327erisindeki o\u0308zel tehlike alanlar\u0131nda c\u0327al\u0131s\u0327malar yap\u0131lm\u0131s\u0327 ve bu riskli alanlarda o\u0308ncelikli olarak do\u0308nu\u0308s\u0327u\u0308m ve iyiles\u0327tirme o\u0308nerilmis\u0327ti (6). 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki bina dag\u0306\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na go\u0308re heyelan alanlar\u0131nda 24.862 yap\u0131dan % 97\u2019si, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015fma alanlar\u0131nda 19.002 yap\u0131dan % 89\u2019u, tsunami tehlikeli alanlarda 20.791 yap\u0131dan % 85\u2019i, dere yatag\u0306\u0131\/vadi taban\u0131 alanlar\u0131ndaki 108.556 yap\u0131n\u0131n % 91\u2019i konuttur. Yine o zamanki yap\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131na go\u0308re \u0130stanbul yap\u0131 stokunun % 15\u2019i konum ac\u0327\u0131s\u0131ndan yanl\u0131s\u0327 yerdedir. Aradan gec\u0327en 16 y\u0131lda bu alanlarda yap\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011finin daha da artt\u0131g\u0306\u0131 ac\u0327\u0131kt\u0131r. K\u0131y\u0131larda yer alan 266 tarihi yap\u0131 i\u00e7in o\u0308zel koruma\/ kurtarma planlar\u0131 gereklidir. Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem nedeniyle I\u0307stanbul ic\u0327in gu\u0308ncelenen deprem senaryosunda kay\u0131p ve hasar yu\u0308zdeleri 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki verilere go\u0308re \u015eekil 10\u2019da (32) verilmis\u0327tir. Bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131na g\u00f6re revize edilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n \u0130stanbul dahil g\u00f6\u00e7 alan ve deprem tehlikesi bulunan bir\u00e7ok \u015fehrimizde kay\u0131p riskleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmektedir. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan manzara \u00e7o\u011funlukla planl\u0131 ve ya\u015fanabilir bir kentle\u015fme de\u011fil, bir y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmad\u0131r. \u015eehir y\u00f6netiminde yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131n ve plans\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n faturas\u0131 sellerle, depremlerle ve di\u011fer do\u011fal ve insan kaynakl\u0131 olaylarla kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Riskleri azaltma ad\u0131na 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren 6306 say\u0131l\u0131 Afet Riski Alt\u0131ndaki Alanlar\u0131n D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi Hakk\u0131ndaki Kanun\u2019a dayanarak yap\u0131lan uygulamalar\u0131n sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zecek do\u011fru sonu\u00e7lar vermedi\u011fi ortadad\u0131r. Murat Balamir diyor ki (33); \u201c\u0130stanbul, deprem ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin getirdi\u011fi \u00e7oklu tehlikeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yetersiz yap\u0131 stoku ve altyap\u0131s\u0131 yan\u0131 s\u0131ra adanmam\u0131\u015f y\u00f6netimleriyle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk ortamlar\u0131ndand\u0131r.\u00a0Toplum kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015f, a\u00e7\u0131k alanlar\u0131 yap\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak risklerin katlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u0130stanbul\u2019un g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, bor\u00e7lanma yoluyla bir ba\u015fka akla teslim edilmi\u015ftir. Do\u011fru zamanda do\u011fru deprem stratejisi kurulamamas\u0131 pi\u015fmanl\u0131klar yaratacak tarihi bir \u0130stanbul yazg\u0131s\u0131 olmamal\u0131yd\u0131\u201d.<\/p>\n Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yasas\u0131 ile bir yandan devletin g\u00f6zetimi alt\u0131nda deprem risklerini azaltma giri\u015fimlerinden s\u00f6z edilirken, di\u011fer yandan imar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 yasas\u0131yla risk durumu ne olursa olsun \u201cyap\u0131n\u0131n depreme dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hususu malikin sorumlulu\u011fundad\u0131r\u201d denilmektedir. Vatanda\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yasas\u0131 ile s\u00f6zde \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 i\u00e7in zorunlu uygulamalara sokulurken, imar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoluyla riskli yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde \u201cne haliniz varsa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u201d anlam\u0131nda tuhaf bir duruma terk edilmektedir. Yeni politika \u00f6nerileri alt\u0131nda afet risklerini azaltma strateji ve eylem planlar\u0131n\u0131 etkin bir bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcr\u00fctemeyen T\u00fcrkiye her t\u00fcrl\u00fc afete haz\u0131rl\u0131k hedefinde savrulmakta ve zaman kaybetmektedir.<\/p>\n \u0130stanbul\u2019daki kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm uygulamalar\u0131 tasar\u0131m planlar\u0131 olmayan, afet riskleri y\u00fcksek alanlar\u0131n\u00a0g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edildi\u011fi, en sorunlu sahil ve dere yataklar\u0131n\u0131n dahi rant i\u00e7in devasa yap\u0131 stoklar\u0131na imara a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7o\u011funlukla parsel baz\u0131nda yenileme ve gayrimenkul geli\u015ftirme projelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u0130stanbul\u2019da kentsel tasar\u0131m projelerinden yoksun bu in\u015faat faaliyeti yo\u011fun g\u00f6\u00e7e ra\u011fmen son 20 y\u0131lda konut stoku fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. Vah\u015fi yap\u0131la\u015fma sonucu donat\u0131 alanlar\u0131, afet tahliye alanlar\u0131 ve ye\u015fil alanlar azalm\u0131\u015f, \u015fehir kimli\u011fi bozulmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve ya\u015fanabilir mek\u00e2n sa\u011flama g\u00f6revi unutulmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n \u0130stanbul gibi mega-\u015fehirlerin her bir il\u00e7esinin bir \u015fehir n\u00fcfusu kadar oldu\u011fu illerimizde iyi yeti\u015fmi\u015f insan kaynaklar\u0131 ile il\u00e7e \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmeleri ve kademeleri olmadan, yerel y\u00f6netimlerde her d\u00fczeyde yerle\u015fim planlama, kentsel risklerin tespiti, risk y\u00f6netimi tesis edilemeden nas\u0131l afet y\u00f6netimi yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir durum yaratmaktad\u0131r. Kald\u0131 ki afet risklerinin tespiti ile ilgili \u0130BB\u2019nin 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\u00e7ok tehlike ve risk tespit \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 vard\u0131r ve t\u00fcm ar\u015fiv \u0130BB\u2019dedir.<\/p>\n \u0130stanbul Valili\u011fi \u0130l AFAD M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u015fu anda Hasdal Hizmet Binas\u0131, Ca\u011falo\u011flu Hizmet Binas\u0131, Ye\u015filk\u00f6y Arama ve Kurtarma Birlik M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Akf\u0131rat Hizmet Binas\u0131 ve in\u015faat halindeki Afet E\u011fitim Merkezi farkl\u0131 yerlerde bulunmaktad\u0131r. Emniyet (MOBESE dahil), AKOM (\u0130BB), ambulans, itfaiye, jandarma vb gibi farkl\u0131 bakanl\u0131klara ve kurumlara ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctler halen farkl\u0131 telefon numaralar\u0131 ile hizmet etmekte ve tesisleri farkl\u0131 yerlerdedir. \u0130stanbul\u2019da 112 \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 Merkezi M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn bir an \u00f6nce kurulmas\u0131, t\u00fcm ilgili unsurlar\u0131n y\u00f6netmelik gere\u011fi bir araya getirilmesi ve haberle\u015fmenin \u00e7ok parametreli say\u0131sal haberle\u015fme sistemine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n 1999 depremi sonras\u0131nda, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130stanbul Valili\u011fi b\u00fcnyesinde \u0130stanbul Sismik Riskin Azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Acil Durum Haz\u0131rl\u0131k Projesi (\u0130SMEP) ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu projeyle ilgili bug\u00fcne kadar D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Avrupa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131, Avrupa Konseyi Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131, \u0130slam Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131, Alman Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan toplam 2,028 milyar Avro kredi al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 kalemde proje uygulamalar\u0131 yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Proje 2021 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecektir. Bu proje kapsam\u0131nda bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130stanbul\u2019da 230 okul binas\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, 774 okul binas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f, 3 hastane binas\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, 42 hastane binas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015ftir. \u00c7ok say\u0131da kamu binas\u0131 ve hastane halen yeniden yap\u0131lmay\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi beklemektedir. Ancak bu projeler bir Sak\u0131n\u0131m Plan\u0131 k\u0131lavuzlu\u011funda yap\u0131lmamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Son 112 y\u0131lda, b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en az 6,0 olan 216 adet deprem nedeniyle a\u011f\u0131r can ve mal kay\u0131plar\u0131na u\u011frayan (9) ve son on y\u0131ld\u0131r 7,0\u2019den daha b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olmayan \u00fclkemizde hangi \u015fehirlerimizin ne zaman b\u00f6yle bir tehlike ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemeyiz. Ancak, vurgulamak isterim ki, etkin bir deprem ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki \u00fclkemizde bu on y\u0131ll\u0131k sessiz s\u00fcre \u015fansl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong>(*) En basit hidrokarbon metand\u0131r. Metan batakl\u0131k gaz\u0131 olarak bilinir. Metan bir karbon ve d\u00f6rt hidrojen atomunun birle\u015fmesinden olu\u015fan bir hidrokarbondur. Do\u011fal gaz\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc (% 70-90\u2019\u0131), metan gaz\u0131 (CH4) ad\u0131 verilen hidrokarbon bile\u015fi\u011finden olu\u015fur. \u00a0<\/strong>Kaynaklar<\/strong><\/p>\n 1) https:\/\/www.munichre.com\/topics-online\/en\/climate-change-and-natural-disasters.html<\/p>\n 2) Kadirio\u011flu, F.T. and Kartal, R. F., 2014. The new empirical magnitude conversion relations using an improved earthquake catalogue for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900\u20132012), Turkish J Earth Sci (2016) 25: 300-310.<\/p>\n 3) EMSC, https:\/\/www.emsc-csem.org\/#2<\/p>\n 4) https:\/\/www.afad.gov.tr\/<\/p>\n 5) JICA-IBB Raporu, 2002, The Study on a Disaster Prevention \/ Mitigation Basic Plan in I\u0307stanbul including Seismic Microzonation in the Republic of Turkey, Final Report, Main Report, December 2002, Pacific Consultants International, OYO Corporation, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), I\u0307stanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM), 729 pages.<\/p>\n 6) \u0130stanbul \u0130\u00e7in Deprem Master Plan\u0131 (\u0130DMP), 2003, \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi, Planlama ve \u0130mar Dairesi, Zemin ve Deprem \u0130nceleme M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130stanbul Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Orta Do\u011fu Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Y\u0131ld\u0131z Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, 7 Temmuz 2003, 1344 sayfa.<\/p>\n 7) \u0130BB-OYO, 2009. Deprem R\u0131\u0307sk Yo\u0308net\u0131\u0307m\u0131\u0307 ve Kentsel I\u0307y\u0131\u0307les\u0327t\u0131\u0307rme Da\u0131\u0307re Bas\u0327kanl\u0131g\u0306\u0131, Deprem ve Zem\u0131\u0307n I\u0307nceleme Mu\u0308du\u0308rlu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308, Anadolu Yakas\u0131 M\u0131\u0307krobo\u0308lgeleme Rapor ve Har\u0131\u0307talar\u0131n\u0131n Yap\u0131lmas\u0131, Ana Rapor, Kas\u0131m 2009, \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi-Oyo International Corporation, 864 Sayfa.<\/p>\n 8) http:\/\/www.resmigazete.gov.tr\/eskiler\/2018\/03\/20180318M1-2.htm<\/p>\n 9) https:\/\/tdth.afad.gov.tr\/<\/p>\n 10) Stein, R. S., Barka, A. and Dieterich, J. H., 1997, Progressive failure on the North Anatolian Fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophysical Journal International, 128, 594-604.<\/p>\n 11) Pondard, N., Armijo, R., King, G. C. P., Meyer, B. and Flerit, F., 2007, Fault interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences, Geophysical Journal International<\/em>, Volume 171, Issue 3, December 2007, Pages 1185\u20131197.<\/p>\n 12) Eyido\u011fan, H., G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, U., Utku, Z. ve De\u011firmenci, E., 1991, T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fck depremleri makro-sismik rehberi (1900-1988), \u0130stanbul Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130stanbul, 199 sayfa.<\/p>\n 13) Parsons, T., 2004, Recalculated probability of M>7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, J. Geophys. Res., 109.<\/p>\n 14) Ge\u0301li, L. et al., 2008, Earth and Planetary Science Letters September 2008, Volume 274, Issues 1-2, Pages 34-39. http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epsl.2008.06.047<\/p>\n 15) Ge\u0301li, L. et al., 2018, Gas and seismicity within the \u0130stanbul seismic gap. Nature Scientific Reports, https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-018-23536-7<\/p>\n 16) Lange, D., Kopp, H., Royer, J-Y., Henry, P., C\u0327ak\u0131r, Z., Petersen, F., Sakic, P., Ballu, V., Bialas, J., O\u0308zeren, M.S., Ergintav, S., Ge\u0301li, L., 2019, Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore, \u0130stanbul, Nature Communications, V<\/em>10, Article number: 3006, 9 pages.<\/p>\n 17) Eyido\u011fan, H., 2012, 50 Soruda Deprem, Bilim ve Gelecek Kitapl\u0131\u011f\u0131 50 soruda dizisi, 2. Bask\u0131, 254 sayfa.<\/p>\n 18) Alt\u0131nok, Y. and Ersoy, S\u0327., 2000, Tsunamis Observed on and Near the Turkish Coast, Nat. Hazards, 21, 185-205.<\/p>\n 19) Yalc\u0327\u0131ner, A., Pelinovsky, E., Talipova, T., Kurkin, A., Kozelkov, A. and Zaitsev, A., 2004, Tsunamis in the Black Sea: Comparison of the historical, instrumental, and numerical data, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C12023.<\/p>\n 20) http:\/\/ibb.gov.tr\/tr-TR\/SubSites\/DepremSite\/Pages\/TsunamiTehlikeAnaliziRaporu.aspx<\/p>\n 21) https:\/\/www.scec.org\/research\/focusareas\/EFP\/scec3.html<\/p>\n 22) UDK Raporu, 2002, Deprem zararlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma ulusal stratejisi, Nisan 2002. Ulusal Deprem Konseyi, Ankara, 100 sayfa.<\/p>\n 23) ISDR, 2004, Terminology: basic terms of disaster risk reduction. https:\/\/www.unisdr.org\/we\/inform\/terminology<\/p>\n 24) USGS, Fact Sheet 2014\u20133083, version 1.2, February 2017.<\/p>\n 25) http:\/\/www.koeri.boun.edu.tr\/ArastIrma\/Erken%20UyarI%20%20ve%20AcIl%20Mudahale%20SIstemI_3_66.depmuh<\/p>\n 26) https:\/\/advances.sciencemag.org\/content\/advances\/suppl\/2018\/03\/19\/4.3.eaaq0504.DC1\/aaq0504_SM.pdf<\/p>\n 27) \u00d6zel, N. M., Necmio\u011flu, \u00d6, Yal\u00e7\u0131ner, A. C., Kalafat, D. and Erdik, M., 2011, Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas: Toward a Tsunami warning center in Turkey, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 31, 598-610.<\/p>\n 28) Balamir, M., 2006, Afet Politikalar\u0131nda Y\u00fckselen Paradigma: Sak\u0131n\u0131m, Depremler \u00dclkesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Tutumlar ve \u0130stanbul Tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, ODT\u00dc, Ankara.<\/p>\n 29) Balamir, M., 2007, Afet politikas\u0131, risk ve planlama, TMMOB \u015eehir Planc\u0131lar\u0131 Odas\u0131, Afet ve Risk Komisyonu Raporu, http:\/\/www.spo.org.tr\/genel\/bizden_detay.php?kod=391&tipi=58&sube=0&kkod=6, 8 sayfa.<\/p>\n 30) https:\/\/www.unisdr.org\/we\/inform\/publications\/43291<\/p>\n 31) Balamir, M., 2018, Afetler, Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Sak\u0131n\u0131m Planlamas\u0131, A\u00e7\u0131klamal\u0131 Kavram ve Terimler, TMMOB \u015eehir Planc\u0131lar\u0131 Odas\u0131.<\/p>\n 32) T.C. I\u0307stanbul Bu\u0308yu\u0308k\u015feh\u0131\u0307r Beled\u0131\u0307yes\u0131\u0307, 2009, I\u0307stanbul Olas\u0131 Deprem Kay\u0131p Tahm\u0131\u0307nler\u0131\u0307, Deprem R\u0131\u0307sk Yo\u0308net\u0131\u0307m\u0131\u0307 ve Kentsel I\u0307y\u0131\u0307les\u0327t\u0131\u0307rme Da\u0131\u0307re Bas\u0327kanl\u0131g\u0306\u0131 Deprem ve Zem\u0131\u0307n I\u0307nceleme Mu\u0308du\u0308rlu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308, I\u0307stanbul, Ek\u0131\u0307m 2009, 266 sayfa.<\/p>\n 33) http:\/\/www.cumhuriyet.com.tr\/koseyazisi\/1175877\/Dunya_projeleri__istanbul_un_depremine_deva_olabilir_mi_.html<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130stanbul dahil g\u00f6\u00e7 alan ve deprem tehlikesi bulunan bir\u00e7ok \u015fehrimizde kay\u0131p riskleri b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan manzara \u00e7o\u011funlukla planl\u0131 ve ya\u015fanabilir bir kentle\u015fme de\u011fil, bir y\u0131\u011f\u0131lma. \u015eehir y\u00f6netiminde yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131n ve plans\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n faturas\u0131 sellerle, depremlerle ve di\u011fer do\u011fal ve insan kaynakl\u0131 olaylarla kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kar. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar Marmara Denizi i\u00e7erisinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde olma […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1575,"featured_media":36447,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5223,19,217,38],"tags":[691,5250,5251],"class_list":["post-36446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-187-sayi","category-bilim-gundemi","category-cevre-bilimleri","category-dergi-sayilari","tag-deprem","tag-marmara-depremi","tag-onlem"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t
\n<\/em><\/strong>\u00dclkemizdeki do\u011fal afet kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay depreme aittir. \u0130kinci s\u0131rada heyelan, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada ise sel ve ta\u015fk\u0131n bulunur. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fimi ile ilgili son y\u0131llardaki istatistikler sel, ta\u015fk\u0131n, heyelan ve hatta tayfun gibi afet t\u00fcrlerinin artaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir (1). T\u00fcrkiye do\u011fal ve insan kaynakl\u0131 tehlikeler ve maruz kalma oran\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede 10 \u00fczerinden 7,1 puanla 19. s\u0131rada, korunmas\u0131zl\u0131kta 5,1 puanla 47. s\u0131radad\u0131r.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-1-300x211.jpg\")
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-2-300x214.jpg\")
\n<\/em><\/strong>Bina deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi ve ona e\u015flik eden deprem tehlike haritalar\u0131 in\u015faat m\u00fchendisleri, planc\u0131lar, sigortac\u0131lar, yerbilimciler ve di\u011fer ilgili sekt\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda veya b\u00f6lgesel deprem tehlike haritalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla olas\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6ntemlerine g\u00f6re hesaplan\u0131r. Kriz ve acil durum y\u00f6netimi, deprem ana (master) planlar\u0131, \u00f6zel projeler ve benzer baz\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar i\u00e7in tan\u0131msal tehlike haritalar\u0131 da \u00fcretilir.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-3-300x185.jpg\")
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-4a-300x170.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-4b-300x144.jpg\")
\n<\/em><\/strong>1500 km uzunluktaki Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 7,9 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki 1939 Erzincan depreminden sonra bat\u0131ya do\u011fru b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 6,7\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 tane hasar yap\u0131c\u0131 depremi tetikleyerek ilerlemi\u015f (10, 11) ve en son 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck depremini yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (\u015eekil 6). G\u00f6lc\u00fck depremi, Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Sakarya-\u0130zmit K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kadar olan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla olu\u015fmu\u015ftur. Fay\u0131n \u0130zmit K\u00f6rfezinden Tekirda\u011f a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131na do\u011fru giden b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn (Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131) gelecekte ba\u015fka bir b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin ana hatt\u0131 oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm \u00fczerinde jeoloji-jeofizik-deniz bilimciler taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok say\u0131da inceleme yap\u0131ld\u0131. M\u00fcrefte-\u015eark\u00f6y hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinde 9 A\u011fustos 1912\u2019de 7,4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deprem (12) Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n o b\u00f6l\u00fcmdeki deprem enerjisinin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 1912 depremi ile 1999 depremi aras\u0131nda kalan sismik bo\u015flu\u011fun biriken deprem enerjisinin ne zaman b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremle a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n odak noktas\u0131 olmu\u015ftur (\u015eekil 6). Yerbilimciler T\u00fcrk, Frans\u0131z, \u0130talyan, Japon ve Amerikan ara\u015ft\u0131rma gemileriyle Marmara Denizi\u2019ni sismik ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve batiskaf aletleri ile tarad\u0131lar ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da jeolojik ve jeofizik veri toplay\u0131p de\u011ferlendirdiler. Benzer projeler bug\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcrmektedir. Yerbilimciler tarihsel ve aletsel d\u00f6nemde olan t\u00fcm deprem verileri kullan\u0131larak 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminin Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 \u00fczerinde gelecekte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 % 15 oran\u0131nda art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplad\u0131lar (13).<\/p>\n
\n<\/em><\/strong>Marmara Denizi i\u00e7erisindeki fay ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yerbilim \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, biliminsanlar\u0131 yeni bilgiler \u00fcretmekte ve bunlar\u0131 bilimsel dergilerde yay\u0131nlamaktad\u0131rlar. Bu yay\u0131nlar bazen yaz\u0131l\u0131 ve g\u00f6rsel medyaya yans\u0131makta ve toplum bu konuda bilgilendirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ancak bu t\u00fcr haberlerden sonra bazen konu nedense depremin olaca\u011f\u0131 kesin tarihin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmekte, hatta \u201c\u015fu kadar y\u0131l Marmara\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olmayacak\u201d beyanlar\u0131na kadar varmaktad\u0131r. Art\u0131k bilinmelidir ki \u201c\u015fu tarihe kadar deprem olmaz\u201d demek olanaks\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-5-300x161.jpg\")
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-6-300x169.jpg\")
\n<\/em><\/strong>Deprem, denizalt\u0131nda yanarda\u011f p\u00fcsk\u00fcrmesi, k\u0131y\u0131larda veya deniz alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck heyelan, meteorun denize d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya denizde n\u00fckleer patlama tsunamiyi tetikleyen olaylar olarak s\u0131ralanabilir (17). Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc istatistiklere g\u00f6re tsunami olaylar\u0131n\u0131n % 75\u2019i depremlerden, % 10\u2019u kayna\u011f\u0131 bilinmeyen nedenlerden, % 8\u2019i deniz heyelanlar\u0131ndan, % 5\u2019i volkanik patlamalardan, % 2\u2019si meteorolojik olaylardan kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1901-2000 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda tsunami olaylar\u0131n\u0131n % 76\u2019s\u0131 Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nda, % 10\u2019u Akdeniz\u2019de, % 9\u2019u Atlantik Okyanusu\u2019nda ve % 5\u2019i Hint Okyanusu\u2019nda olmu\u015ftur. En b\u00fcy\u00fck tsunamiler Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nda olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-7-300x193.jpg\")
\n<\/strong>Depremlerle ilgili olarak bug\u00fcne kadar edinilen istatistik verileri ve yerbilimine ait bilgi birikimini kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, uzun d\u00f6nemde depremlerin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n hangi b\u00f6lgelerinde ve hangi deprem ku\u015faklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilebiliyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin y\u0131lda 20\u2019ye yak\u0131n 7 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin % 80\u2019nin Pasifik Okyanusu \u00e7evresindeki Ate\u015f \u00c7emberi b\u00f6lgesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 istatistiksel olarak s\u00f6ylemek olanakl\u0131d\u0131r. Eldeki bilgi birikimine g\u00f6re deprem tehlikesi y\u00fcksek yerler \u00e7ok kesin olmamakla birlikte belirlenebilmektedir. Bu bilgi bize tehlikenin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunmam\u0131z\u0131, \u00f6nlemler konusunda uygulamalar yapmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor ancak depremin olaca\u011f\u0131 tarihi ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kesin olarak \u00f6nceden haber vermek (prediction) bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in olanaks\u0131zd\u0131r. \u00d6nceden haber verme konusu \u00fczerinde ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir (21).<\/p>\n
\n<\/em><\/strong>BM Afet Risklerinin Azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Stratejisi\u2019ne (UNISDR) g\u00f6re afetler i\u00e7in erken uyar\u0131 (early warning), bireylerin, topluluklar\u0131n, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin, i\u015fletmelerin ve di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin afet risklerini \u00f6nlemek, azaltmak ve \u00f6nlem almak i\u00e7in tehlikeyi izleme, tahmin ve \u00f6ng\u00f6rme, risk de\u011ferlendirmesi, ileti\u015fim ve \u00f6nceden harekete ge\u00e7meyi sa\u011flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7leri i\u00e7eren b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fik bir sistemdir (23).<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-8-300x134.jpg\")
\n<\/em><\/strong>Afetler politikas\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde tarihi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe u\u011fram\u0131\u015f bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin ba\u015fl\u0131ca hedefi, politikan\u0131n art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca afet sonras\u0131 yard\u0131mlarla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131lmay\u0131p, afet \u00f6ncesinde risklerin ve olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n belirlenmesi, risklerin bertaraf edilmesi, azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6n plana ge\u00e7irmektir (28, 29).<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/\u015eekil-9-239x300.jpg\")
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