![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/haluk-eyido\u011fan-\u015fekil-1.jpg\")
<\/p>\nTarihsel d\u00f6nemlerde (1900 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ncesi) Marmara Denizi\u2019nde olan b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler sonucunda \u0130stanbul\u2019un g\u00fcney k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da tsunami olaylar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu ve kadim \u015fehrin \u00f6nemli kay\u0131plarla ve hasarlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131 belgelerde kay\u0131tl\u0131d\u0131r. Tu\u0308rkiye k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda 3000 y\u0131l\u0131 as\u0327k\u0131n bir su\u0308rede saptanan 90 kadar tsunami dalgas\u0131n\u0131n u\u0308c\u0327te biri Marmara Denizi\u2019nde yer alm\u0131s\u0327t\u0131r. Marmara Denizi\u2019nde son 3000 y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihsel tsunamilerle ilgili bulgulara g\u00f6re tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmanma yu\u0308kseklig\u0306inin 6 metre seviyelerine ula\u015fabilece\u011fi, limanlarda bulunan gemileri harap ettig\u0306i, s\u0327ehrin ic\u0327 kesimlerine kadar tsunami bask\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi ve birc\u0327ok yap\u0131n\u0131n hasar go\u0308rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131y\u0131larda tsunami yaratan do\u011fal kaynaklar kaynag\u0306\u0131 olarak genelde iki t\u00fcr olarak o\u0308ngo\u0308ru\u0308l\u00fcr; 1) Deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda fay hareketinin deniz taban\u0131nda neden oldug\u0306u yer deg\u0306is\u0327tirme ve deformasyon, 2) Fay hareketinin \u00e7evresinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 deformasyon ile denizdeki heyelanlar. Baz\u0131 durumlarda deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda olu\u015fan fay\u0131n hareketi yan\u0131s\u0131ra, aktif hale gelen heyelanla birlikte e\u015fzamanl\u0131 bir tsunami olu\u015fturma mekanizmas\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6yle durumlarda beklenen tsunami daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilmekte ve hasar olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artmaktad\u0131r. Marmara\u2019daki tarihsel d\u00f6nemde olmu\u015f baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlerin (\u00f6rn. 1509 ve 1766 depremleri) b\u00f6ylesine e\u015fzamanl\u0131 tsunami yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Marmara i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan tsunami analizlerinde her iki durum da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bilimsel hesaplara g\u00f6re Marmara Denizi\u2019nin \u0130stanbul k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda olu\u015facak tsunami y\u00fcksekli\u011fi 3.0 m\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya ta\u015fk\u0131n derinli\u011fi 0.5 m\u2019yi ge\u00e7ti\u011fi alanlar tsunamiden olumsuz etkilenebilir durumdad\u0131r. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130BB-OYO i\u015f birli\u011fi ile yap\u0131lan analiz raporunda \u0130stanbul\u2019un k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda tsunami y\u00fcksekli\u011finin 3.0 m\u2019yi a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda k\u0131y\u0131daki yerle\u015fimlerin \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir afetle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130BB, \u201cI\u0307stanbul I\u0307l\u0131\u0307 Marmara K\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 Tsunam\u0131\u0307 Modelleme, Hasar\u00a0 Go\u0308reb\u0131\u0307l\u0131\u0307rl\u0131\u0307k ve Tehl\u0131\u0307ke Anal\u0131\u0307z\u0131\u0307 Gu\u0308ncelleme Projes\u0131\u0307\u201d yapt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu analizde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7erisinde 11 adet deprem fay modeli yan\u0131s\u0131ra 3 adet deniz heyelan\u0131 modeli kullan\u0131larak Marmara k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda maruz kal\u0131nabilecek tsunami y\u00fcksekli\u011fi ve tsunami bask\u0131n de\u011ferleri elde edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Tsunami analizlerinde tsunami say\u0131sal modeli NAMI DANCE GPU kullan\u0131larak benzetimler (senaryo) yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada Avc\u0131lar- Ku\u0308c\u0327u\u0308kc\u0327ekmece bo\u0308lgesi ic\u0327in en kritik oldug\u0306u bulunan sismik tsunami kaynag\u0306\u0131 olarak bulunan Orta Marmara Fay\u0131 (CMN) fay modeli ve deniz alt\u0131 heyelan\u0131na bag\u0306l\u0131 tsunami i\u00e7in ise LSBC ve LSY heyelan modelleri ic\u0327 ic\u0327e benzetim yo\u0308ntemi kullan\u0131larak tsunami su bask\u0131n derinli\u011fi ve su bask\u0131n uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferleri hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Deprem Kaynakl\u0131 Tsunami Hesaplar\u0131 (Depremli Tsunami) Deniz Heyelan\u0131 Kaynakl\u0131 Tsunami Hesaplar\u0131 (Depremsiz Tsunami) \u0130BB\u2019nin yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz heyelan\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunami benzetimi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda Avc\u0131lar ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece i\u00e7in LSBC ve LSY adl\u0131 heyelan modelleri kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n LSBC kaynakl\u0131 tsunami benzetim sonuc\u0327lar\u0131na go\u0308re, Avc\u0131lar ilc\u0327esinde karadaki maksimum su basma derinlig\u0306i noktasal olarak 18 m\u2019ye, K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece\u2019de 12.5 m\u2019ye ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Avc\u0131lar\u2019da baz\u0131 bo\u0308lgelerde deniz k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131na uzakl\u0131g\u0306\u0131 860 metreye ulas\u0327an yatay su basma mesafeleri go\u0308zlenmis\u0327tir. Ku\u0308c\u0327u\u0308kc\u0327ekmece ilc\u0327esinde karada deniz k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131na uzakl\u0131g\u0306\u0131 970 m\u2019ye ulas\u0327an yatay su basma mesafeleri hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0 Ayr\u0131ca bu benzetim modeline g\u00f6re Ku\u0308c\u0327u\u0308kc\u0327ekmece Go\u0308lu\u0308\u2019ne giren dalga go\u0308l c\u0327evresinde tas\u0327malara neden olabilecek ve yatay su basma mesafesinin go\u0308l k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131na uzakl\u0131g\u0306\u0131 baz\u0131 yerlerde 2.000 m\u2019yi bulabilecektir.<\/p>\n \u00c7ED raporunda Tsunami (2019) Kanal \u0130stanbul \u00c7ED raporundaki olas\u0131 tsunami de\u011ferleri hesaplar\u0131 i\u00e7in tercih edilen olas\u0131 iki tsunami benzetim modeline g\u00f6re (YAN ve LSY) Kanal \u0130stanbul\u2019un giri\u015findeki dalgak\u0131ran\u2019da ve rom\u00f6rk\u00f6r liman\u0131nda \u00f6nemli su d\u00fczeyi de\u011fi\u015fimleri, \u00e7alkant\u0131lar ve \u015fiddetli ak\u0131nt\u0131lar olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Deniz taban\u0131 heyelan\u0131 durumunda olu\u015facak tsunami nedeniyle kanal\u0131n giri\u015findeki k\u0131y\u0131larda tsunami y\u00fcksekli\u011fi 6.8 m ile 9.6 m aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen de\u011ferlere ula\u015facakt\u0131r. Kanal boyunca ak\u0131nt\u0131 h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n da baz\u0131 yerlerde lokal olarak 8,6 m\/sn mertebeye varacag\u0306\u0131 hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00c7ED raporunun tsunami hesaplar\u0131ndan elde edilen sonu\u00e7lara ba\u011fl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re Marmara\u2019dan veya Karadeniz\u2019den gelecek deprem veya deniz heyelan\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n Kanal \u0130stanbul\u2019un k\u0131vr\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde tsunami bask\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimi ve \u00e7alkant\u0131lar daha fazla olacak, tekneleri ve gemileri s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek ve gemilerin hem birbirine \u00e7arpmalar\u0131 hem de k\u0131y\u0131lara \u00e7arpmalar\u0131na neden olacak d\u00fczeyde \u015fiddetli ak\u0131nt\u0131 h\u0131zlar\u0131 ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcler olu\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Kaynaklar Tarihsel d\u00f6nemlerde (1900 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ncesi) Marmara Denizi\u2019nde olan b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler sonucunda \u0130stanbul\u2019un g\u00fcney k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da tsunami olaylar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu ve kadim \u015fehrin \u00f6nemli kay\u0131plarla ve hasarlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131 belgelerde kay\u0131tl\u0131d\u0131r. Tu\u0308rkiye k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda 3000 y\u0131l\u0131 as\u0327k\u0131n bir su\u0308rede saptanan 90 kadar tsunami dalgas\u0131n\u0131n u\u0308c\u0327te biri Marmara Denizi\u2019nde yer alm\u0131s\u0327t\u0131r. Marmara Denizi\u2019nde son 3000 y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihsel tsunamilerle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":233,"featured_media":39177,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[5683,691,736,2130,692],"class_list":["post-39176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilim-gundemi","tag-afet","tag-deprem","tag-kanal-istanbul","tag-marmara-denizi","tag-tsunami"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/233"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39176\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/haluk-eyido\u011fan-\u015fekil-2.jpg\")
\n<\/strong>Orta Marmara Fay\u0131 (CMN) kaynakl\u0131 tsunami benzetim y\u00f6ntemine go\u0308re hesaplamalar tsunaminin maksimum bask\u0131n derinlig\u0306inin noktasal olarak Avc\u0131lar ilc\u0327esi k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda 5.2 m\u2019ye, K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece il\u00e7esinde 5.4 m\u2019ye ulas\u0327maktad\u0131r. Karada yatay y\u00f6nde tsunami bask\u0131n mesafesi Avc\u0131lar\u2019da yaklas\u0327\u0131k 780 m\u2019ye, K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece\u2019de 1.230 m\u2019dir.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Deniz taban\u0131nda yama\u00e7larda biriken b\u00fcy\u00fck tortul\/\u00e7amur k\u00fctleleri zamanla harekete ge\u00e7erek deniz heyelanlar\u0131 olu\u015ftururlar. Uzun y\u0131llar biriken bu tortul\/\u00e7amur k\u00fctleler biriken malzemenin belirli bir kritik d\u00fczeye gelince kendili\u011finden hareket etmesi yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bir deprem sonucu olu\u015fan sars\u0131nt\u0131larla harekete ge\u00e7ti\u011fi olur. Deniz heyelanlar\u0131 her durumda da birikintinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve heyelan h\u0131z\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00e7e\u015fitli b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerde tsunami olu\u015ftururlar. Depremle birlikte olduklar\u0131nda depremin tsunami etkilerini artt\u0131rabilirler.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/haluk-eyido\u011fan-\u015fekil-3.jpg\")
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/haluk-eyido\u011fan-\u015fekil-4.jpg\")
\n<\/strong>Kanal \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanan Ekim 2019 tarihli \u00c7ED raporunun eki olan tsunami model \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nihai raporunda Kanal \u0130stanbul\u2019un K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece giri\u015finin maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131 tsunami etkileri i\u00e7in kanal boyunca k\u0131y\u0131larda ve Karadeniz giri\u015finde hem deprem kaynakl\u0131 hem de deniz heyelan\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunami benzetim hesaplar\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Deprem kaynakl\u0131 tsunami benzetim modeli i\u00e7in Yalova Fay\u0131 (YAN) depremi, deniz heyelan\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunami benzetim modeli i\u00e7in ise LSY heyelan\u0131 modeli kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kanal \u0130stanbul\u2019un \u00e7evresindeki Avc\u0131lar ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece yerle\u015fimlerinin maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131 tsunami hesaplar\u0131 ayn\u0131 ekip taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen 2018\u2019de \u0130BB\u2019nin yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda Avc\u0131lar ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan tsunami hesaplar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan Orta Marmara Fay\u0131 modeli tercih edilmemi\u015ftir. Bu tercihin nedeni bilinmemektedir.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/haluk-eyido\u011fan-\u015fekil-5-280x300.jpg\")
\n<\/strong>-Alt\u0131nok, Y., 2000, Marmara\u2019da deprem dalgalar\u0131, tsunami, Marmara\u2019da Deprem ve Jeofizik Toplant\u0131s\u0131 Kitab\u0131, 28 Haziran 2000, I\u0307stanbul, 39-45.
\n-I\u0307BB-OYO, 2007, \u0130stanbul Mikro bo\u0308lgeleme Projesi, Avrupa Yakas\u0131. I\u0307stanbul Bu\u0308yu\u0308ks\u0327ehir Belediyesi (I\u0307BB) ve \u00a0Oyo Int. Co, Japan.
\n-\u0130BB-ODT\u00dc, 2018. I\u0307stanbul I\u0307l\u0131\u0307 Marmara K\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 Tsunam\u0131\u0307 Modelleme, Hasar Go\u0308reb\u0131\u0307l\u0131\u0307rl\u0131\u0307k ve Tehl\u0131\u0307ke Anal\u0131\u0307z\u0131\u0307 Gu\u0308ncelleme Projes\u0131\u0307 Sonuc\u0327 Raporu, May 2018, 507 sayfa.
\n-Kanal \u0130stanbul \u00c7ED raporu, 2019. TC. Ulas\u0327t\u0131rma Ve Altyap\u0131 Bakanl\u0131g\u0306\u0131 Altyap\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 Genel Mu\u0308du\u0308rlu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308 Kanal I\u0307stanbul Projes\u0131\u0307(K\u0131y\u0131 Yap\u0131lar\u0131 [Yat L\u0131\u0307manlar\u0131, Konteyner L\u0131\u0307manlar\u0131 Ve Loj\u0131\u0307st\u0131\u0307k Merkezler], Den\u0131\u0307zden Alan Kazan\u0131m\u0131, D\u0131\u0307p Taramas\u0131, Beton Santraller\u0131\u0307 Da\u0302h\u0131\u0307l) C\u0327evresel Etk\u0131\u0307 Deg\u0306erlend\u0131\u0307rmes\u0131\u0307 Raporu, 2019, http:\/\/eced.csb.gov.tr\/ced\/jsp\/ek1\/21257#<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"