{"id":39689,"date":"2020-01-11T17:56:32","date_gmt":"2020-01-11T14:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=39689"},"modified":"2020-01-11T17:56:32","modified_gmt":"2020-01-11T14:56:32","slug":"gelecek-marmara-depremini-buyuk-kiyamete-donusturmemek-mumkun-mu-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2020\/01\/11\/gelecek-marmara-depremini-buyuk-kiyamete-donusturmemek-mumkun-mu-2","title":{"rendered":"Gelecek Marmara depremini b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131yamete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?"},"content":{"rendered":"

24-26 Eyl\u00fcl tarihlerinde meydana gelen depremler \u0130stanbul\u2019u sarst\u0131 ve depremi hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Peki, 17 A\u011fustos ve 12 Kas\u0131m 1999 depremlerinin \u00fczerinden 20 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra, Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde meydana gelebilecek depremlerle ilgili bilimsel, y\u00f6netimsel, hukuki vb. haz\u0131rl\u0131klar konusunda neler yap\u0131ld\u0131? B\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130stanbul depremine haz\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z? <\/em><\/p>\n

29 Ekim 2016 tarihinde \u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi M\u00fchendislik Fak\u00fcltesi Jeofizik M\u00fchendisli\u011fi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Sismoloji Anabilim dal\u0131ndaki g\u00f6revinden ihra\u00e7 edilen Dr. Sava\u015f Karabulut, TMMOB Jeofizik M\u00fchendisleri Odas\u0131 \u0130stanbul \u015eube \u00fcyesi ve KESK – E\u011fitim-sen \u0130stanbul 6. no\u2019lu \u015fube \u00fcyesidir.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

24-26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 tarihlerinde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda ba\u015flay\u0131p g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar devam eden art\u00e7\u0131 deprem aktivitesi, 20 y\u0131l sonra yeniden \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130stanbul depremine haz\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z?\u201d sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getirdi ve bizleri \u201cy\u00f6netenleri\u201d sorgulamaya y\u00f6neltti. Peki, 17 A\u011fustos ve 12 Kas\u0131m 1999 depremlerinin \u00fczerinden 20 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra, Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde meydana gelecek deprem(ler)le ilgili bilimsel, y\u00f6netimsel, hukuki vb. haz\u0131rl\u0131klar konusunda neler yap\u0131ld\u0131? Yerel y\u00f6netimler, bakanl\u0131klar ve ilgili b\u00fcrokratlar ge\u00e7en zaman\u0131 nas\u0131l kulland\u0131? Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda meydana gelen depremlerle birlikte sismologlar taraf\u0131ndan beklenen as\u0131l Marmara Denizi depremi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti mi? E\u011fer ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmediyse ne zaman olacak? Silivri depremleri \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem karakteri ta\u015f\u0131yor mu veya \u00f6ncesinde bir mikrodeprem aktivitesi g\u00f6zlendi mi? Depremle birlikte Marmara Denizi k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda veya kara k\u0131sm\u0131na tsunami dalgalar\u0131 ilerleyecek mi? Deprem deniz i\u00e7indeki heyelanlar\u0131 aktif hale getirirse, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fma ihtimali var m\u0131? Deprem ve yarataca\u011f\u0131 tsunaminin etkisini yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda nas\u0131l hissedece\u011fiz? Yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerinde oturdu\u011fu zemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 deprem dalgalar\u0131ndan nas\u0131l etkilenecek? \u0130stanbul\u2019un \u00fczerine oturdu\u011fu zemin durumu nas\u0131l? \u0130stanbul\u2019un hangi yakas\u0131 ve il\u00e7eleri deprem dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n zemin ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonucunda, depremi daha \u00e7ok hissedecek? Zemin s\u0131v\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve heyelanlar hangi b\u00f6lgelerde olas\u0131 bir deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda aktif hale gelecek? \u0130stanbul\u2019daki yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n durumunu biliyor muyuz? 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra yap\u0131lan ve g\u00f6rece olarak yeni say\u0131labilecek yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za g\u00fcvenmeli miyiz? Yaz\u0131da yukar\u0131da ifade edilen sorular yan\u0131tlanacak ve bu sorulara yan\u0131tlar verilirken de, sayg\u0131n bilimsel dergilerde yay\u0131nlanan bilgiler kullan\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminden sonra Marmara Denizi ve \u00e7evresinde bilimsel olarak neler yap\u0131ld\u0131?
\n<\/strong>17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminde 20.000\u2019e yak\u0131n yurtta\u015f\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczlerce yurtta\u015f\u0131n kay\u0131p olmas\u0131 t\u00fcm ac\u0131 ger\u00e7ekli\u011fiyle belleklerimize kaz\u0131nd\u0131. Bu depremde binlerce ev y\u0131k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, on binlerce yap\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r, orta ve hafif hasar alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan depremle sava\u015f\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u00f6ncesinde haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 durumunda do\u011fa ile bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011freten bir milat olarak tarihteki yerini alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Biliminsanlar\u0131n\u0131n bu depremden sonra ortakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu ise s\u0131ran\u0131n Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7en uzant\u0131s\u0131na geldi\u011fidir. Ayr\u0131ca 17 A\u011fustos depremi sonras\u0131nda, Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu deprem sonras\u0131 5 bar\u2019l\u0131k bir y\u00fck\u00fcn Marmara i\u00e7indeki faylara aktar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n Hersek deltas\u0131ndan 10 km bat\u0131ya kadar devam etti\u011fini ve 30 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde % 62 (\u00b115) olas\u0131l\u0131kla 7 ve \u00fczerinde bir depremin meydana gelece\u011fini yapt\u0131klar\u0131 yay\u0131nlarda g\u00f6stermi\u015flerdir (Barka, 1999;Parson 2000; Hubert ve di\u011f., 2000; Armijo ve di\u011f. 2002;\u015eekil 1). \u015eekil 1\u2019de 17 A\u011fustos ve 12 Kas\u0131m depremleri sonras\u0131nda t\u00fcm gerilmenin Marmara Denizi i\u00e7ine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmektedir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 1: 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depremi sonras\u0131 Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7en Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kuzey kolu \u00fczerinde gerilmenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve g\u00fcney kolu \u00fczerinde ise gerilmenin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren Coloumb gerilme haritas\u0131 (Hubert ve arkada\u015flar\u0131, 2000).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tarihsel depremler
\n<\/em><\/strong>Sismolojik veriler genel olarak iki d\u00f6neme ayr\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Birincisi 1900 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ncesine ait depremleri i\u00e7eren tarihsel d\u00f6nem, ikincisi 1900 sonras\u0131 deprem kay\u0131t cihazlar\u0131n\u0131n depremleri kay\u0131t etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aletsel d\u00f6nemdir. Her iki veri katalo\u011fu incelendi\u011finde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde 329 adet b\u00fcy\u00fck ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 depremin meydana geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu depremlerin 284 tanesi Marmara Denizi i\u00e7indeki kuzey kolun (\u0130stanbul\u2019un g\u00fcneyinden ge\u00e7en fay zonu) \u00fczerinde meydana gelmi\u015ftir (\u015eahin ve ark. 2018). Gelecekte Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde olacak M: >7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deprem(ler)i anlaman\u0131n en do\u011fru yolu ge\u00e7mi\u015fte (tarihsel kay\u0131tlarda) b\u00f6lgede meydana gelmi\u015f depremleri incelemekten ge\u00e7mektedir. Bu konuda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir\u00e7ok yay\u0131n ve deprem katalo\u011fu da bulunmaktad\u0131r (Ambraseys ve ark. 2000; Alt\u0131nok ve ark. 2003; Bulut ve ark. 2019). Yay\u0131nlarda tarihsel depremlerin izleri hem ar\u015fiv bilgileri hem de fay \u00fczerine a\u00e7\u0131lan \u00e7ukurlarla yap\u0131lan paleosismoloji \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ile incelenmi\u015ftir. Her iki durumda da Marmara Denizi \u00e7evresi ve i\u00e7inde tarihsel d\u00f6nemde meydana gelmi\u015f depremlere ait hasar bilgileri ve tsunami izleri oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir (Alt\u0131nok ve Ersoy, 2000).<\/p>\n

Tarihsel depremler incelendi\u011finde son 1500 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde ortalama her 250 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ortalama yedi (7) adet kuvvetli ve b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin (> Mw:7) meydana geldi\u011fi yerle\u015fim alanlar\u0131na verdi\u011fi hasar ve y\u0131k\u0131mla g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir (Bulut ve ark. 2019; \u015eekil 2). \u015eekil 2a\u2019da Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde 1509, 1766 May\u0131s ve 1766 Kas\u0131m y\u0131llar\u0131nda meydana gelen ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u0131yamet olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan depremler, \u015eekil 2 b\u2019de Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde son 1500 y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki depremlerin tekrar etme periyotlar\u0131 ve ortalama yerde\u011fi\u015ftirme miktarlar\u0131 verilmi\u015ftir. Son d\u00f6ng\u00fc 1894 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, 1912 \u015eark\u00f6y M\u00fcrefte depremi ile devam etmi\u015f ve son olarak 17 A\u011fustos 1999\u2019da meydana gelen \u0130zmit depremi ile devam etmi\u015ftir. Gerilme birikiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve faylar\u0131n enerji biriktirip k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 bekledi\u011fi t\u00fcm alan Marmara Denizi\u2019nin i\u00e7indedir. Bu b\u00f6lgede yap\u0131lan son \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda Do\u011fu Marmara ve Kumburgaz faylar\u0131n\u0131n kilitli oldu\u011fu, Tekirda\u011f orta Marmara \u00e7ukurlu\u011funda ise enerjinin birikmeyip s\u00fcrekli yer de\u011fi\u015ftirme ile (creep: akma) bo\u015fald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir (Lange ve ark. 2019, \u015eekil 3).<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 2 a) Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde meydana gelen son b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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Son 1500 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde meydana gelmi\u015f depremlerin tekrar etme ve yerde\u011fi\u015ftirme oranlar\u0131.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

24-26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 Silivri depremleri sonras\u0131 Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde uyanan fay
\n<\/strong>24 Eyl\u00fcl (Mw: 4.6) ve 26 Eyl\u00fcl (Mw: 5.8) tarihlerinde iki deprem Kumburgaz baseninin (\u015eekil 2a, KB olarak ifade edilmi\u015ftir) kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131nda iki g\u00fcn arayla meydana gelmi\u015ftir. \u015eekil 3a ve 3b\u2019deki haritada Lange ve ark. (2019) taraf\u0131ndan deniz dibine (y\u00fczeyden 800 m derinli\u011fe) yerle\u015ftirilen GPS (k\u00fcresel konum belirleme sistemi) a\u011f\u0131 ile birbirlerine e\u015f zamanl\u0131 sinyal g\u00f6nderen sistemlerle Kumburgaz ve \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k \u00e7ukurlu\u011fundaki faylar\u0131n kilitli oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Bu iki fay zonunda \u015eekil 3b\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere deprem aktivitesi bulunmamaktad\u0131r. \u015eekil 3c\u2019de ise 1939 Erzincan depremi ile g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde meydana gelen deprem etkinli\u011finin bat\u0131ya g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 3: Lange ve arkada\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (2019) Kumburgaz fay\u0131 \u00fczerindeki deprem etkinli\u011fini takip ettikleri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\u015eekil 4a\u2019da 11 Eyl\u00fcl-11 Ekim tarihleri aras\u0131ndaki Marmara Denizi ve \u00e7evresindeki deprem etkinli\u011fi g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndaki deprem etkinli\u011fi ilk g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpan deprem k\u00fcmesini g\u00f6stermektedir (\u015eekil 4b). Ayr\u0131ca Yalova a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en g\u00fcney ucundaki mikrodeprem aktivitesi ve genel olarak Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kuzey kolu \u00fczerinde sanki iple dizilmi\u015f gibi bir deprem aktivitesinin e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 4: Son 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in Marmara Denizi i\u00e7indeki Deprem aktivitesi (B.\u00dc. KOER\u0130. B\u00f6lgesel Deprem-Tsunami \u0130zleme Merkezi, 2019).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

24 ve 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 depremleri sonras\u0131 Marmara Denizi ve \u00e7evresindeki deprem etkinli\u011finin 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimi \u015eekil 4\u2019de ve son bir haftal\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi (10-16 Ekim 2019) ise \u015eekil 5\u2019de verilmi\u015ftir. \u015eekil 4a incelendi\u011finde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde uzanan Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019na ait kuzey kol \u00fczerinde sadece Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda de\u011fil, do\u011fu segmentinin en g\u00fcneyi olan Yalova a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda da bir dizi deprem etkinli\u011finin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u015eekil 4b\u2019de ise Silivri depreminden sonra art\u00e7\u0131 depremlerin k\u0131r\u0131lan fay\u0131n KB\u2019s\u0131ndan GD\u2019suna do\u011fru dizildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu durum ise Lange ve ark. (2019) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda belirtilen kilitli fay\u0131n \u00fczerine ek gerilme y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn geldi\u011fini yani kilitli fay\u0131 uyand\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. \u015eekil 5a\u2019da Silivri depremi sonras\u0131 art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131nda azalmalar meydana gelse de devam etti\u011fi, \u015eekil 5b\u2019de ise yakla\u015f\u0131k D-B do\u011frultusunda uzanan 31 km uzunlu\u011fundaki Kumburgaz fay\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k KB istikametinde meydana gelen deprem etkinli\u011finin, k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen fay\u0131 ortadan zorluyor oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 5: Son 7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in Marmara Denizi i\u00e7indeki Deprem aktivitesi (B.\u00dc. KOER\u0130. B\u00f6lgesel Deprem-Tsunami \u0130zleme Merkezi, 2019).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Silivri depremleri b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc m\u00fc ve\/veya b\u00fcy\u00fck depremi tetikler mi?
\n<\/strong>Bir depremin di\u011fer bir depremi tetikleyip tetiklemeyece\u011fi veya bir depremin \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fartlar\u0131nda \u00f6ncesinden bilimsel olarak bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemek, sadece \u00f6ncesinde ba\u015flayan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem aktivitelerinin g\u00f6zlenmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Ancak bir fay\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 nedeniyle yak\u0131n\u0131nda bulunan faya belirli miktar gerilme (enerji) transferi oldu\u011fu ve art\u00e7\u0131 depremlerin zamansal olarak bu enerji birikiminin artmas\u0131nda rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda belirtilmektedir (Toda ve Stein, 2019; Eyido\u011fan 2019). Toda ve Stein (2019) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 tarihinde meydana gelen deprem sonras\u0131 kilitli oldu\u011fu (Lange ve ark. 2019) belirtilen faya 1\u2019barl\u0131k ek bir gerilme transferi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi belirtilmi\u015ftir (\u015eekil 6). Benzer bir durum olarak, 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminde (Hubert ve ark. 2000) D\u00fczce segmentine 15 bar\u2019l\u0131k bir gerilmenin transfer edilmesi ve 3 ay sonra olu\u015fan D\u00fczce depremini \u00f6ne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilmektedir. Yani ortalama 210 y\u0131lda 4,1 metrelik bir yerde\u011fi\u015ftirmeye neden olabilecek bir faya ek y\u00fck\u00fcn binmesi, fay\u0131n uyanmas\u0131na ve daha erken k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olabilir. 24-26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 depremleri ve sonras\u0131nda meydana gelen art\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n zamana ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri Eyido\u011fan (2019) taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve \u015eekil 7\u2019de verilmi\u015ftir. \u015eekil incelendi\u011finde art\u00e7\u0131 depremlerin belirli bir sistematik i\u00e7inde devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki bir deprem sonras\u0131 bu art\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n iki ay s\u00fcresince devam etmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 6: 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 depremi sonras\u0131 Kumburgaz fay\u0131ndaki gerilmenin artmas\u0131 (Stein ve Toda, 2019).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u015eekil 7: 24- 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 ile 01 Ekim 2019 tarihleri aras\u0131ndaki deprem etkinli\u011fi (Eyido\u011fan, 2019).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tsunami meydana gelecek mi?
\n<\/em><\/strong>Tarihsel depremlerde Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde tsunamilerin meydana geldi\u011fi hem ar\u015fiv kay\u0131tlar\u0131nda hem de k\u0131yaya yak\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lan tren\u00e7lerde (\u00e7ukurlar) yap\u0131lan paleosismoloji \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir (Alt\u0131nok ve Ersoy, 2000; Alt\u0131nok ve ark. 2003). 1509 y\u0131l\u0131nda meydana gelen ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u0131yamet olarak isimlendirilen depremde meydana gelen tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n tarihi yar\u0131madada bulunan surlar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belgelenmi\u015ftir. Bu durum dalga boylar\u0131n\u0131n 5-8 metreye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde yap\u0131lan tsunami modelleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda da sadece deprem nedeniyle meydana gelebilecek tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n 2-3 metre dolaylar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu modellenmi\u015ftir. Oysa tarihsel depremler bu verileri do\u011frulamamaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle depremler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ikinci etmenlerin de tarihsel depremlerde tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n dalga boylar\u0131n\u0131 belirlemede etken oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

Latcharote ve arkada\u015flar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada (2016) deprem ve depremin etkisiyle Marmara Denizi kuzey sahillerinde meydana gelecek farkl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7eklerdeki deniz dibi heyelanlar\u0131 nedeniyle olu\u015facak tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015f s\u00fcreleri ve y\u00fckseklikleri modellenmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 \u015eekil 8a\u2019da do\u011fu Marmara fay\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (Mw:7.3) nedeniyle 5 dakika, 8b\u2019de 10 dak., 8c\u2019de 20 dakika ve 8d\u2019de 30 dakika i\u00e7inde tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 alanlar modellenmi\u015ftir. Kuzey k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ortalama 5 dakika, \u0130mral\u0131 Adas\u0131\u2019na 10 dakika, Marmara Adas\u0131\u2019na da 20 dakika i\u00e7inde tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u015eekil 8: \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k \u00c7ukurlu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en fay\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda meydana gelecek tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 ula\u015fma s\u00fcreleri.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u015eekil 9\u2019da soldaki \u015fekilde tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok etkileyece\u011fi alanlar\u0131n tarihi yar\u0131mada, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i, Kad\u0131k\u00f6y, Armutlu (Esenk\u00f6y), Band\u0131rma ve Mudanya sahilleri oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Burada \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 senaryo modellenmi\u015ftir. Sadece b\u00fcy\u00fck bir heyelan k\u00fctlesinin (1,5 km3<\/sup>) yarataca\u011f\u0131 tsunami (L), Do\u011fu Marmara fay segmentinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 deprem (Mw: 7.3)\u00a0 sonucu (E) ve Do\u011fu ve Bat\u0131 Fay segmentlerinin birlikte k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (Mw: 7.7) sonucu meydana gelecek tsunami dalga boylar\u0131 (EW) sa\u011fdaki \u015fekilde verilmi\u015ftir. Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i\u2019nde 4-8 metre, Armutlu\u2019da 13 metre, Mudanya\u2019da 9 metre ve Band\u0131rma\u2019da 4,5 metrelik tsunami dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi modellenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u015eekil 9: Heyelan, Do\u011fu Marmara fay segmentinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 deprem (Mw: 7.3) ve Do\u011fu ve Bat\u0131 Fay segmentlerinin birlikte k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (Mw: 7.7) sonucu meydana gelecek tsunami dalga boylar\u0131.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u0130stanbul\u2019un zemin problemleri
\n<\/em><\/strong>\u0130stanbul\u2019un Avrupa yakas\u0131 3B sa\u011flam kayan\u0131n derinli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim haritas\u0131 \u015eekil 10\u2019da verilmi\u015ftir. Depremler s\u0131ras\u0131nda hasar\u0131n belirlenmesinde en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6rlerden biri yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerine oturdu\u011fu zemin ko\u015fullar\u0131d\u0131r. Unutmamak gerekir ki; deprem tek ba\u015f\u0131na sadece bir do\u011fal tehlikedir. Deprem-Zemin-Yap\u0131 etkile\u015fimi \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fcnden, zemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve yap\u0131 \u00f6zellikleri hasar\u0131n veya kayb\u0131n esas belirleyicisidir. Bu nedenle yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n in\u015fa edildi\u011fi zeminlerin \u00f6zelliklerinin jeofizik m\u00fchendislerince \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131p olas\u0131 zemin problemleri belirlenmelidir. Avrupa yakas\u0131n\u0131n zemin \u00f6zellikleri Anadolu yakas\u0131na g\u00f6re daha karma\u015f\u0131k ve k\u00f6t\u00fcd\u00fcr. Yani Anadolu yakas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc zemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eekil 10\u2019da Karabulut ve \u00d6zel (2018) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ve \u0130stanbul Avrupa yakas\u0131n\u0131n 3 boyutlu anakaya topo\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fiminin verildi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, sa\u011flam kayan\u0131n ne kadar derinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Sa\u011flam kayan\u0131n derin oldu\u011fu alanlar, olas\u0131 bir deprem s\u0131ras\u0131nda belirli frekanslarda deprem dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok hissedecek alanlar olarak tariflenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca dere yataklar\u0131nda ve k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feritlerinde s\u0131v\u0131la\u015fma tehlikesinin oldu\u011fu alanlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Heyelanlar\u0131n ise aktif olarak B\u00fcy\u00fck\u00e7ekmece K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde, Beylikd\u00fcz\u00fc\u2019nde dere yata\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dik kesen yama\u00e7larda, Ambarl\u0131 Liman\u0131-Had\u0131mk\u00f6y aks\u0131nda, Avc\u0131lar sahili ve Fir\u00fczk\u00f6y\u2019de, Menek\u015fe, Kartal, Tuzla sahillerinde ve Sar\u0131yer-Maden ve K\u0131s\u0131rkaya civar\u0131nda olu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 10: \u0130stanbul Avrupa yakas\u0131 3B anakaya de\u011fi\u015fim haritas\u0131 (Karabulut, 2018).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u0130stanbul\u2019un 2000 \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131 yap\u0131 stoku g\u00fcvenilir mi?
\n<\/strong>Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcme kadar olan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda, Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde beklenen depremin boyutlar\u0131, tsunami ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130stanbul\u2019un zemin durumu bilgileri verildi. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ise deprem-zemin-yap\u0131 etkile\u015fiminin son oyuncusu olan yap\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n g\u00fcvenilir olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan son \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya de\u011finece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Hanc\u0131lar ve ark. (2019) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada \u0130stanbul ilinde 2000 y\u0131l\u0131 sonras\u0131 in\u015fa edilen yap\u0131lar\u0131n hasar ve maliyet analizleri yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130stanbul\u2019da bulunan 1 milyon 250 bin yap\u0131n\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k % 18\u2019inin (180.000) 2000 sonras\u0131 in\u015fa edildi\u011fi ve yap\u0131lan analizler sonucunda bu yap\u0131lar\u0131n ortalama % 17\u2019sinin orta ve a\u011f\u0131r hasar alaca\u011f\u0131 tespit edilmi\u015ftir. Yani 2000 sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan yakla\u015f\u0131k 43.000 yap\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4000\u2019i a\u011f\u0131r ve \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r hasar alabilecektir. 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depremi sonras\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan onlarca y\u00f6netmelik, yap\u0131 denetim yasas\u0131 ve son s\u00fcre\u00e7te imar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 dururken, teknoloji ve m\u00fchendislik bu kadar ileri seviyelere gelmi\u015fken, 2000 sonras\u0131 yap\u0131larda bile 4000 yap\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r hasar alaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015fken, 2000 \u00f6ncesi yap\u0131lar\u0131n durumu hakk\u0131nda fazla s\u00f6z s\u00f6ylemek do\u011fru olmayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu konuda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015f bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yoktur. Bu nedenle ivedilikle t\u00fcm yap\u0131lar kamu kaynaklar\u0131 ve kamu eliyle \u00fccretsiz olarak incelenmelidir. 2000 sonras\u0131 m\u00fchendislik hizmetlerinin denetim ve kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6zelle\u015ftirildi\u011fi ortadayken, kontrol\u00fcn devlet organlar\u0131na (bakanl\u0131k ve belediyeler) b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 zorunlu hale gelmelidir. T\u00fcm yap\u0131lar\u0131n anayasal bir hak olan g\u00fcvenli bar\u0131nma hakk\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda, \u00fccretsiz bir \u015fekilde kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Binalar\u0131m\u0131zda 18 Mart 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ve 1 Ocak 2019\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren T\u00fcrkiye Yeni Bina Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi ilkelerine g\u00f6re gerekli performans testleri yap\u0131lmas\u0131, yak\u0131n bir gelecekte meydana gelmesi muhtemel Marmara depreminin, \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131yamete\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in gereklidir. Biliminsan\u0131 sorumlulu\u011fuyla, kamu kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kamu i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck mega (rant) projelerini merkeze alan anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n terk edilmesi gerekti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatmak istiyorum.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>KAYNAKLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

1) Alt\u0131nok, Y., and S. Ersoy 2000, Tsunamis observed on and near the Turkish coast. Nat. Hazards, 21, 185-205.<\/p>\n

2) Alt\u0131nok, Y., Alpar, B., Yalt\u0131rak, C., 2003, \u015earkoy-Murefte 1912 Earthquake’s Tsunami,<\/p>\n

Extension of the Associated Faulting in the Marmara Sea, Turkey. J. Seismol. 7, 329\u2013346.<\/p>\n

3) Ambraseys, N., Jackson, J., 2000, Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500.<\/p>\n

Geophys. J. Int. 141, F1\u2013F6. Ambraseys, N., 2009. Earthquakes.<\/p>\n

4) Armijo R., Meyer B., Barka A.A., Chabalier J.B., Hubert Ferrari A., \u00c7ak\u0131r Z., 2000,\u00a0 The fault breaks of the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey and the tectonic evolution of the Sea of Marmara: a summary, in: Barka A.A., Kozact 0., Akyiiz S.H., Altune1 E. (Eds.), 1999 \u0130zmit and D\u00fczce earthquakes: preliminary Results, \u0130stanbul Technical University Pub., Istanbul, 2000, pp. 55-62.<\/p>\n

5) Barka, A. A. 1999, 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. Science 258, 1858\u20131859.<\/p>\n

6) Barka A. A., Kozac\u0131, O., Aky\u00fcz S.H., Altunel E. (Eds.), 1999, \u0130zmit and D\u00fczce earthquakes: preliminary results, \u0130stanbul Technical University Pub., Istanbul, pp. 311-316.<\/p>\n

7) Bulut, F., Aktu\u011f, B., Yalt\u0131rak, C., Do\u011fru. A., \u00d6zener. H., 2019, Magnitudes of future large earthquakes near Istanbul quantified from 1500 years of historical earthquakes, present-day microseismicity and GPS slip rates, Tectonophysics 764, 77-87.<\/p>\n

8) Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi, Kandilli Rasathanesi BDTD\u0130M, 2019.\u00a0 [http:\/\/www.koeri.boun.edu.tr\/sismo\/2\/deprem-bilgileri\/buyuk-depremler\/ Eri\u015fim Tarihi: 18\/10\/2019]<\/p>\n

9) Eyidogan, H., Sevilgen, V., 2019, Strong earthquake strikes near the Marmara Fault, damaging 77 buildings and frightening Istanbul residents, Temblor, http:\/\/<\/a>doi.org\/10.32858\/temblor.047<\/p>\n

10) Hanc\u0131lar U. \u015ee\u015fetyan, K. \u00c7akt\u0131, E.,\u00a0 2019, \u0130stanbul\u2019daki 2000 Y\u0131l\u0131 Sonras\u0131 Binalar \u0130\u00e7in Tasar\u0131ma Esas Deprem Seviyesi Alt\u0131nda Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 Yap\u0131sal Hasar ve Mali Kay\u0131p Tahminleri, \u0130stanbul Teknik Dergi, 2019, Cilt 30, Say\u0131: 3<\/p>\n

11) Hubert A., Barka A.A., Jacques E., Nalbant S., Meyer B., Armijo R., Tapponier P., King J., 2000,\u00a0 Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 izmit earthquake, in:<\/p>\n

12) Karabulut and \u00d6zel, 2018, 3-D shear wave velocity structure beneath the European Side of Istanbul from seismic noise arrays analysis, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 215, Issue 3, December 2018, Pages 1803\u20131823,\u00a0https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/gji\/ggy370<\/p>\n

13) Lange ve arkada\u015flar\u0131, 2019, Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul, \u00a0Nature Communication. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-019-11016-z.<\/p>\n

14) Parson T., Toda S., Stein R., Barka A.A., Dieterich J ., 2000, Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science 28,\u00a0 661-665.<\/p>\n

15) Toda, S., and Stein, R.S., 2019, Could the 26 Sept 2019 Marmara Sea earthquake trigger a much larger event closer to Istanbul?, Temblor, http:\/\/doi.org\/10.32858\/temblor.046<\/p>\n

16) \u015eahin. M., Yaltirak, C., G\u00fcltekin D.\u0130., 2018, 1894 \u0130stanbul (Adalar) Depremi Tsunamisi, III. Ulusal Deniz Bilimleri Konferansi, Dokuz Eyl\u00fcl \u00dcniversitesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

24-26 Eyl\u00fcl tarihlerinde meydana gelen depremler \u0130stanbul\u2019u sarst\u0131 ve depremi hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Peki, 17 A\u011fustos ve 12 Kas\u0131m 1999 depremlerinin \u00fczerinden 20 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra, Marmara Denizi i\u00e7inde meydana gelebilecek depremlerle ilgili bilimsel, y\u00f6netimsel, hukuki vb. haz\u0131rl\u0131klar konusunda neler yap\u0131ld\u0131? B\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130stanbul depremine haz\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z? 29 Ekim 2016 tarihinde \u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi M\u00fchendislik Fak\u00fcltesi Jeofizik M\u00fchendisli\u011fi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2176,"featured_media":37807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[691,5205,5741,5742],"class_list":["post-39689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilim-gundemi","tag-deprem","tag-istanbul","tag-marmara","tag-yapi-stogu"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t