{"id":40419,"date":"2020-02-29T00:00:45","date_gmt":"2020-02-28T21:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=40419"},"modified":"2020-03-21T17:23:39","modified_gmt":"2020-03-21T14:23:39","slug":"turkiyeden-umut-verici-ornekler-oncu-deprem-ana-depremi-tahminde-kullanilabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2020\/02\/29\/turkiyeden-umut-verici-ornekler-oncu-deprem-ana-depremi-tahminde-kullanilabilir-mi","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den umut verici \u00f6rnekler
\u00d6nc\u00fc deprem ana depremi tahminde kullan\u0131labilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00dclkemizde deprem istasyon say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem kaydetme yeteneklerinin artmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak deprembilimcilerimiz daha duyarl\u0131 ve taml\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f depremsellik verileri ve kataloglar\u0131 kullanma olana\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015ftu\u011funda \u00f6nc\u00fc depremler, ana depremler ve art\u00e7\u0131 depremler aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 tan\u0131ma \u015fans\u0131 artacakt\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde \u00f6\u011frenciyken rahmetli H\u00fcseyin Soysal hocam\u0131z\u0131n Deprembilim (Sismoloji) dersimizde deprem dizilerinin olu\u015f bi\u00e7iminin \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f sergileyebilece\u011fini \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015ftik. Birincisi, deprem f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131yd\u0131 (earthquake swarm). Deprem f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u0131 genellikle i\u00e7erisinde ana deprem niteli\u011finde kuvvetli ve b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olmayan bir\u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta kuvvette deprem dizilerini kapsayan, bir s\u00fcre etkin olan ve uzun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yap\u0131larda hasar da yapabilen bir deprem etkinli\u011fiydi. \u0130kincisi t\u00fcr deprem dizisi, ans\u0131z\u0131n bir kuvvetli veya b\u00fcy\u00fck depremle ba\u015flayan (ana deprem, mainshock), bir s\u00fcre art\u00e7\u0131 depremler (aftershock) olu\u015fturup zaman i\u00e7erisinde sakinle\u015fen bir deprem etkinli\u011fiydi. En \u00e7ok rastlanan t\u00fcr buydu. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u00fcr ise \u00e7ok s\u0131k rastlanmayan, bir orta kuvvette veya daha kuvvetli bir \u00f6nc\u00fc depremle (foreshock) ba\u015flayan ve bir s\u00fcre sonra arkas\u0131ndan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olabilen bir ana deprem gelen ve art\u00e7\u0131 depremlerle s\u00fcren bir davran\u0131\u015f sergileyen deprem dizisiydi. Deprem ku\u015faklar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki co\u011frafyalarda bu \u00fc\u00e7 t\u00fcre de rastlanmaktad\u0131r. Deprembilimciler bu deprem serilerinin davran\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imlerini anlamak i\u00e7in onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r hem laboratuvarda kaya \u00f6rnekleri \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131lma deneyleri yapmakta, hem de kuramsal matematik modeller denemekte ve geli\u015ftirilen duyarl\u0131 teknolojilerle daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck depremleri kaydedip incelemektedirler.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nc\u00fc depremlerle ba\u015flayan ve arkas\u0131ndan kuvvetli ana deprem yaratan t\u00fcr deprem dizisi her zaman deprembilimcilerin daha fazla ilgisini \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc depremlerin tan\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda depremi \u00f6nceden haber verme gibi bir umut do\u011fmaktad\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde geli\u015fen bilimsel ve teknolojik y\u00f6ntemlerle bu umudun giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Ancak, \u00f6nc\u00fc depremlerin ana depremle yer, mekanik ve zamansal ili\u015fkisi konusunda ve ana depremi nas\u0131l tetikledi\u011fi ile ilgili geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci ve mekanizmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan bir\u00e7ok bilinmeyen vard\u0131r. 1975\u2019de \u00c7in Haicheng\u2019de 7.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin \u00f6nceden haber verilmesi deprembilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok heyecanland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmakla birlikte, \u00e7ok say\u0131da deprem \u00f6nc\u00fc depremleri olsa dahi kesin tan\u0131mlanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00f6nceden haber verilememi\u015ftir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc genellikle \u00f6nc\u00fc depremler daha b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olduktan sonra fark edilmektedir. Bir b\u00f6lgede ba\u015flayan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem etkinli\u011fine bak\u0131p onun arkas\u0131ndan \u015fu g\u00fcn ve \u015fu saat daha b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak diyebilme \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini bulabilmi\u015f de\u011filiz. Ama b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara ra\u011fmen, bu konu \u00fczerinde umudunu kaybetmeden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan deprembilimciler var. D\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm kuvvetli depremlerin \u00f6nc\u00fc depremlerle zaman, mek\u00e2n ve mekanizma ili\u015fkilerini inceleyen ve \u00f6nc\u00fc depremler\/ana deprem aras\u0131ndaki gerilim (stress), gerinim (strain) ve faylanma (faulting) ili\u015fkilerini ara\u015ft\u0131ran bir\u00e7ok deprembilimci var ve giderek artan say\u0131da yay\u0131nlar yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nc\u00fc deprem olu\u015fumunu a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok model \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Felzer ve di\u011f. (2004) San Andreas fay ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n etkisinde olan Kaliforniya (ABD) b\u00f6lgesindeki depremselli\u011fin istatistiksel testleri sonucu iki model \u00f6nermi\u015ftir. \u00d6rne\u011fin yava\u015f ve sismik olmayan (asismik) kayma s\u0131ras\u0131nda (pre-slip) deprem b\u00f6lgesinde \u00f6nc\u00fc depremler ba\u015flar. Bu a\u015famada bir s\u00fcre sonra faylanma (kal\u0131c\u0131 kayma, static slip) ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir ve ana deprem olur. Sismik olmayan kayman\u0131n derecesi ve alansal boyutu ana depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyebilir. Ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k (cascade) modelde ba\u015flayan \u00f6nc\u00fc depremin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kal\u0131c\u0131 kayma veya dinamik dalgalar\u0131n (sismik dalgalar) neden oldu\u011fu gerilim aktar\u0131m\u0131 hem sonraki \u00f6nc\u00fc depremlerin hem de ana depremin olu\u015fmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Bu modelde ana deprem, fay\u0131n geli\u015fmesine ve art\u00e7\u0131 depremlerin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan normal bir deprem gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr. Konuyla ilgili literat\u00fcrde farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m ve hipotezlere ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem-ana deprem olu\u015fum modelleri tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130talya\u2019da yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmada 6 Nisan 2009 tarihinde L\u2019Aquila\u2019da olan Mw 6.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin \u00f6ncesindeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem etkinli\u011fi incelenmi\u015ftir (Papadopoulos ve di\u011f., 2010). 1 Nisan 2006-30 Haziran 2009 tarihleri aras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgedeki deprem dizilerine Z-Testi ve Utsu testi gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli inceleme teknikleri uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu testlere g\u00f6re kullan\u0131lan r ve b de\u011ferlerinin ilgili tarihler aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi incelenmi\u015ftir. 28 Ekim 2008\u2019den 26 Mart 2009\u2019a kadar r de\u011feri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f ve 2.52 olay\/g\u00fcn\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f ancak b de\u011feri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015ftir. 6.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki ana depremden \u00f6nceki son 10 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde depremlerin g\u00fcnl\u00fck r de\u011feri 21.70 olay\/g\u00fcn d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, b de\u011feri ise 0.68 gibi olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan bir de\u011fere d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu durum \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. 0.68 gibi bir de\u011fere d\u00fc\u015fen b de\u011feri ana depremden sonra gelen art\u00e7\u0131 depremlerin b de\u011ferlerinden de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmu\u015ftur. 6.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki L\u2019Aquila depremi i\u00e7in bu \u00f6rnek sonu\u00e7lar, ana depremin tahmini i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem dizilerinin incelenmesinin \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6rneklerden biri olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Trugman & Ross (2019) geli\u015fmi\u015f ve \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 deprem istasyonlar\u0131yla donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Kaliforniya ve \u00e7evresinde kaydedilen depremlerin incelenmesi sonras\u0131 Kaliforniya\u2019da t\u00fcm ana depremlerin yar\u0131s\u0131na yak\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi saptanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak bu g\u00f6zlemlerin laboratuvar deprem deneyleri ve deprem olu\u015fumu teorik modelleri ile uzla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fimdilik zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. O \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada 2008-2017 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00fcney Kaliforniya\u2019da geli\u015fmi\u015f ve y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc bir deprem katalo\u011fu kullan\u0131larak 4.0 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem dizileri incelenmi\u015ftir. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n alg\u0131layamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok say\u0131da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck depremin deprem kay\u0131t\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131yla ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a eksiksiz bir deprem katalo\u011fu, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki \u00f6nc\u00fcl depremselli\u011fi incelemek i\u00e7in yeni olanaklar sunmaktad\u0131r. Bulgulara g\u00f6re bu katalogdaki 4.0 ve daha kuvvetli ana depremlerin y\u00fczde yetmi\u015f ikisinden \u00f6nce, yerel arka plan depremsellik oran\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselen \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir. \u00d6nc\u00fc deprem dizileri, 16.6 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir medyan ile birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn ila hafta aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmektedir. Sonu\u00e7lar, do\u011fadaki \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem olu\u015fumunun daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha yayg\u0131n oldu\u011funu ve depremin olu\u015fum s\u00fcreci (n\u00fckleasyonu) konusundaki bilgilerimizin, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck depremleri saptama yetene\u011fimizdeki ilerlemelerle birlikte geli\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu makalede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de olmu\u015f bir\u00e7ok ana depremin \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem olu\u015fumunun var olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik h\u0131zl\u0131 bir inceleme yapt\u0131k. \u0130nceleyebildi\u011fimiz depremlerden be\u015finde \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi olarak sunabilece\u011fimiz baz\u0131 deprem etkinliklerine rastlad\u0131k. Depremlerin faylanma \u00f6zelliklerine ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ana depremin d\u0131\u015f merkezinden de\u011fi\u015fen dairesel uzakl\u0131klara (R) g\u00f6re etkinlik alan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmi\u015ftir. \u0130ncelenen depremlerle ilgili de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin bilgisi \u00c7izelge 1\u2019de verilmektedir. E\u011fer \u00fclkemizde ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem kay\u0131t yetene\u011fi ve kapasitesi daha geli\u015fmi\u015f olsayd\u0131 ve onlar\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmasayd\u0131k belki de \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi bulunan deprem \u00f6rne\u011fi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131rabilirdik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tarih<\/strong><\/td>\nSaat<\/strong><\/td>\nEnlem<\/strong><\/td>\nBoylam<\/strong><\/td>\nH (km)<\/strong><\/td>\nMw<\/strong><\/td>\nR (km)<\/strong><\/td>\nDepremin Yeri<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1\/10\/1995<\/td>\n15:57<\/td>\n38.0750<\/td>\n30.1420<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n6.4<\/td>\n20<\/td>\nDinar, Afyon<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8\/3\/2010<\/td>\n02:32<\/td>\n38.7700<\/td>\n40.0700<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n10<\/td>\nKovanc\u0131lar, Elaz\u0131\u011f<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19\/5\/2011<\/td>\n20:15<\/td>\n39.1328<\/td>\n29.0820<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n5.9<\/td>\n10<\/td>\nSimav, K\u00fctahya<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26\/9\/2019<\/td>\n10:59<\/td>\n40.8818<\/td>\n28.2140<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n5.8<\/td>\n10<\/td>\nSilivri, Marmara Denizi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24\/1\/2020<\/td>\n17:55<\/td>\n38.3593<\/td>\n39.0630<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n6.8<\/td>\n30<\/td>\nSivrice, Elaz\u0131\u011f<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00c7izelge 1. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi saptanan be\u015f depremin de\u011fi\u015fkenleri. H, deprem i\u00e7 merkez derinli\u011fi; Mw, moment b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc; R, ana depremin merkezinden dairesel uzakl\u0131k de\u011feri (Veriler AFAD-DAD\u2019dan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r).<\/p>\n

1 Ekim 1995 Dinar, Afyon depremi
\n<\/em><\/strong>B\u00dc-KRDAE verilerinden b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2.0 ve daha fazla olan deprem etkinli\u011fi incelendi\u011finde 26 Eyl\u00fcl 1995 tarihinde bir etkinlik ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu etkinli\u011fin biri 4.6, di\u011feri 4.7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki iki \u00f6nc\u00fc \u015fokla birlikte 28 Eyl\u00fcl ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Bu tarihten sonra 2 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir sessizlik d\u00f6neminden 1 Ekim 1995 tarihinde sabah tekrar bir \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 16 saat sonra 6.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ana depremin olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir. \u0130lk \u00f6nc\u00fc depremin olu\u015fumundan 6.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki ana depremin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre 6 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr (\u015eekil 1). Etkinlik alan\u0131n\u0131n kuzeyindeki 4.7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00f6nc\u00fc depremin ana depremin d\u0131\u015f merkezi civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u015eekil 1. 1 Ekim 1995 Dinar, Afyon depremi etkinli\u011fi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

8 Mart 2010 Kovanc\u0131lar, Elaz\u0131\u011f depremi
\n<\/em><\/strong>8 Mart 2010 tarihinde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olan Kovanc\u0131lar, Elaz\u0131\u011f depreminden 23 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 4.2 ve 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde iki deprem i\u00e7eren bir \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve 16 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren bir sessizlik s\u00fcrecinden sonra 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir ana deprem olmu\u015ftur. (\u015eekil 2) 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki ana depremin d\u0131\u015f merkezi 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00f6nc\u00fc depreme \u00e7ok yak\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u015eekil 2. 8 Mart 2010 Kovanc\u0131lar, Elaz\u0131\u011f depremi etkinli\u011fi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

19 May\u0131s 2011 Simav, K\u00fctahya depremi
\n<\/em><\/strong>Simav, K\u00fctahya depremi \u00f6ncesi 20 Mart 2011\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, 29 Mart 2011\u2019de 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremden sonra \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve etkinlik 60 g\u00fcn sonra 19 May\u0131s 2011 tarihinde 5.9 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir ana depremle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (\u015eekil 3). 5.9 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki ana deprem, 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00f6nc\u00fc depremin g\u00fcneyinde konumlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 3. 19 May\u0131s 2011 Simav, K\u00fctahya depremi etkinli\u011fi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 Silivri, Marmara Denizi depremi
\n<\/em><\/strong>22 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 tarihinde Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda Marmara Denizi\u2019nde ba\u015flayan \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi 24 Eyl\u00fcl 2019\u2019da 4.6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir deprem ile s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve 4 g\u00fcn sonra 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 tarihinde ayn\u0131 yerde 5.8 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir ana deprem olmu\u015ftur (\u015eekil 4). Deprem etkinli\u011fi Ana Marmara Fay ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde bir tali fay \u00fczerinde olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 4. 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 Silivri, Marmara Denizi deprem etkinli\u011fi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

24 Ocak 2020 Sivrice, Elaz\u0131\u011f depremi
\n<\/em><\/strong>17 Aral\u0131k 2020\u2019de Do\u011fanyol, Malatya civar\u0131nda ba\u015flayan \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi 27 Aral\u0131k 2020\u2019de 4.9 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00f6nc\u00fc depremle s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve 29 g\u00fcn sonra 24 Ocak 2020 tarihinde \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi alan\u0131nda 6.8 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir ana deprem olmu\u015ftur (\u015eekil 5).<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 5. 24 Ocak 2020 Sivrice-Do\u011fanyol deprem etkinli\u011fi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Sonu\u00e7lar
\n<\/em><\/strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 1995 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra olmu\u015f depremlerin incelenmesi sonucu \u00fclkenin farkl\u0131 yerlerinde ve farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerde olmu\u015f be\u015f depremin \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinli\u011fi olarak niteleyebilece\u011fimiz deprem etkinlikleri g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir. Be\u015f depremin en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nc\u00fc depremi ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 zaman\u0131 ile ana deprem olu\u015fum zaman\u0131 aras\u0131nda farklar sistematik de\u011fildir ve bir matematiksel ili\u015fki kurulamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu farklar en az 4 g\u00fcn ile en fazla 60 g\u00fcn aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmektedir. \u00d6nc\u00fc deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem etkinlik alan\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve s\u00fcresi ile ana deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi de\u011fi\u015fkenler aras\u0131nda baz\u0131 sistematik ili\u015fkilerin ke\u015ffi konusunda umut verici bulgular i\u00e7in belki biraz erkendir, ancak incelenen ana deprem-\u00f6nc\u00fc deprem \u00f6rneklerinin say\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu konuda umut verici bilgiler elde edebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Burada sunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m ara\u015ft\u0131rma bir \u00f6n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma olarak nitelendirilmelidir. \u00dclkemizde deprem istasyon say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem kaydetme yeteneklerinin artmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak deprembilimcilerimiz daha duyarl\u0131 ve taml\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f depremsellik verileri ve kataloglar\u0131 kullanma olana\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015ftu\u011funda \u00f6nc\u00fc depremler, ana depremler ve art\u00e7\u0131 depremler aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 tan\u0131ma \u015fans\u0131 artacakt\u0131r. Co\u011frafyam\u0131z\u0131n gere\u011fi yo\u011fun depremsellik ya\u015fanan \u00fclkemizdeki bu t\u00fcr \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yerbilimleri, fizik, matematik, olas\u0131l\u0131k kuram\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 gibi disiplinler aras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlarla deprembilime, deprem risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na ve erken uyar\u0131 konusunda ilerlemelere katk\u0131 koymas\u0131 umudunu ta\u015f\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>KAYNAKLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

– AFAD-DAD https:\/\/deprem.afad.gov.tr\/ddakatalogu<\/p>\n

– B\u00dc-KRDAE http:\/\/www.koeri.boun.edu.tr\/sismo\/zeqdb\/<\/p>\n

– Dodge, D. A., Beroza, G. C. & Ellsworth, W. L., 1996. Detailed obser- vations of California foreshock sequences: implications for the earth- quake nucleation process, J. Geophys. Res. <\/em>101, 22,371\u201322,392.<\/p>\n

– Felzer, K. R., Abercrombie, R. E. & Ekstr\u00f6m, G., 2004. A Common Origin for Aftershocks, Foreshocks, and Multiplets, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 1, 88\u201398.<\/p>\n

– Papadopoulos, G. A., Charalampakis, M., Fokaefs, A. & Minadaki, G., 2010. Strong foreshock signal preceding the L\u2019Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw 6.3) of 6 April 2009, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 19\u201324.<\/p>\n

– Trugman, D. T. & Ross, Z.E., 2019. Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California, Geophysical Research Letter, 30 July 2019, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2019GL083725.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00dclkemizde deprem istasyon say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck deprem kaydetme yeteneklerinin artmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak deprembilimcilerimiz daha duyarl\u0131 ve taml\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f depremsellik verileri ve kataloglar\u0131 kullanma olana\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015ftu\u011funda \u00f6nc\u00fc depremler, ana depremler ve art\u00e7\u0131 depremler aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 tan\u0131ma \u015fans\u0131 artacakt\u0131r. \u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde \u00f6\u011frenciyken rahmetli H\u00fcseyin Soysal hocam\u0131z\u0131n Deprembilim (Sismoloji) dersimizde deprem dizilerinin olu\u015f bi\u00e7iminin \u00fc\u00e7 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1575,"featured_media":40425,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5844,38],"tags":[691],"class_list":["post-40419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-193-sayi","category-dergi-sayilari","tag-deprem"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1575"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40419\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}