![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ads\u0131z-1.jpg\")
<\/p>\n\u00c7ernobil ve Fuku\u015fima kazalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 baz\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n kanserden \u00f6leceklerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 az, ba\u015fka ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n ise \u00e7ok fazla hesaplad\u0131klar\u0131 zaman zaman medyada yer al\u0131yor. Konuya yabanc\u0131 olanlar ise, bunlardan hangisinin ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, kime inanacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyorlar. Bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni, her bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplarda kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da baz\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ve genellemelerle varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalama radyasyon dozu ve bu dozu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen, o b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fayan, ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131ktan ileri geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda bu konuyu biraz irdeleyip g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sererek bu \u00e7e\u015fit hesaplamalar\u0131n nas\u0131l yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n bir de\u011feri olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya\u00a0 \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
\u201cRadyasyon Dozu\u2019 asl\u0131nda radyasyonun v\u00fccutta olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi etkinin bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc. Yaz\u0131n deniz k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcne\u015flendi\u011fimizde\u00a0 g\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa dalga boylu mor\u00f6tesi \u0131\u015f\u0131nlar\u0131n, deriye aktard\u0131klar\u0131 enerji sonucu \u2018al\u0131nan dozla\u2019 derinin k\u0131zard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Radyoaktif maddelerden sal\u0131nan y\u00fcksek enerjili, \u00e7ok k\u0131sa dalga boylu radyasyonlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu sadece deri y\u00fczeyindekilere de\u011fil, \u00e7ok daha derinlerdeki h\u00fccrelere, bunlar\u0131n\u00a0 molek\u00fcl ve atomlar\u0131na girerek h\u00fccrelerin i\u015flevlerini bozabiliyorlar. Bunun belirlenebilmesi ise, ancak \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek dozlarda olabiliyor. E\u011fer birka\u00e7 Sievert gibi y\u00fcksek bir radyasyon dozu birka\u00e7 saatte v\u00fccutta olu\u015fursa, bu doz ileride kansere neden olabiliyor ve belki de \u00f6l\u00fcmle sonu\u00e7lanabiliyor. Ancak, 1 Sievert gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek radyasyon dozlar\u0131 v\u00fccutta ender olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin, bu d\u00fczeyde dozlar Hiro\u015fima ve Nagazaki\u2019de at\u0131lan atom bombalar\u0131 sonras\u0131, sa\u011f kalanlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n v\u00fccutlar\u0131nda olu\u015ftu. Oralarda bile \u00e7ok ki\u015fi bu dozlar\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda dozlar ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Birka\u00e7 bin mili Sievert\u2019ten 200 mili Sievert\u2019te\u00a0 kadar olan radyasyon dozlar\u0131n\u0131n Hiro\u015fima ve Nagazaki\u2019de at\u0131lan atom bombalar\u0131ndan kurtulan baz\u0131 ki\u015filerde \u00f6zellikle kan kanserine neden oldu\u011fu \u00e7e\u015fitli bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rmalardan elde edilen bulgulardan biliniyor. Toplum i\u00e7indeki baz\u0131 ki\u015filerin v\u00fccutlar\u0131nda bozulma (hasar) g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, doz ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckse ve s\u00fcre ne kadar k\u0131saysa (bir g\u00fcn kadar) art\u0131yor (Doz artt\u0131k\u00e7a v\u00fccutta hasar\u0131n derecesi de\u011fil, bunun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor!).<\/p>\n
200 miliSievert\u2019in alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozlarda ise v\u00fccutta bir etki g\u00f6zlenemiyor, belirlenemiyor. Uluslararas\u0131 kurullarca, 1000 mili Sievert\u2019lik bir dozun v\u00fccutta kanser olu\u015fturma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da bu nedenle ek risk: %5 (=0,05) olarak veriliyor. Bunun anlam\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin 100.000 ki\u015finin her biri 1000 mili Sievert\u2019lik y\u00fcksek bir doz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ortalama olarak 5.000 ki\u015fi ya\u015famlar\u0131 boyunca kansere yakalan\u0131p \u00f6lebilir. \u00c7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozlar\u0131n v\u00fccutta kanser yapabilece\u011fi ve bunun riskinin ne kadar oldu\u011fu ise ancak Hiro\u015fima ve Nagazaki sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1000 mSv d\u00fczeyindeki\u00a0 y\u00fcksek dozun kanser yapma riskinden, ba\u015fka yerlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck doz de\u011ferlerine, \u2018do\u011fru orant\u0131yla\u2019 ge\u00e7ilerek, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozlar\u0131n da kanser yapabilece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131p riskler hesaplan\u0131yor.\u00a0 Bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 olan bu varsay\u0131m\u0131n (hipotezin), elde s\u0131nanm\u0131\u015f tutarl\u0131 bulgular olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, do\u011frulu\u011fu ya da yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131tlanam\u0131yor ve b\u00f6yle kabul ediliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir toplulukta her bir ki\u015finin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 doz 100 mSv ise, ek riskin\u00a0 yukardakinin onda birine (=0,05\/10=0,005), 10 mSv ise y\u00fczde birine (=0,05\/100=0,0005) inece\u011fi do\u011fru orant\u0131yla hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fuku\u015fima \u00e7evresinde radyoaktiviteden yo\u011fun etkilenen b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fayan bir ki\u015finin 1 y\u0131lda ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalama doz, uluslararas\u0131 ilgili kurumun yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 ilk ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re 20 mSv kadar. (1)<\/p>\n
Bu dozun olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 ek risk: 20 mSv x 0,05\/1000 mSv=0,001<\/p>\n
Radyasyondan ba\u015fka \u00e7ok \u00e7e\u015fitli etkenlerle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan %25 (=0,25)\u2019lik ortalama genel kanser riski, Fuku\u015fima \u00e7evresinde ya\u015fayan insanlar\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 20 mSv\u2019lik doz nedeniyle 0,25 x 0,001= 0,00025 kadar artacak ve toplam genel risk 0,25 +0,001= %25,1=0,00251 olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7evrede \u00f6rne\u011fin 100.000 ki\u015fi ya\u015f\u0131yorsa bunlardan zaten ortalama 25.000\u2019i\u00a0 ya\u015fam boyu \u00e7e\u015fitli etkenlerle kansere yakalan\u0131p \u00f6lecekken, Fuku\u015fima\u2019dan ald\u0131klar\u0131 20 mSv\u2019lik doz sonucu bu toplam say\u0131ya 100 ki\u015fi eklenecektir (20mSv\/ki\u015fi x 0,05\/1000mSv x 100.000= 100 ki\u015fi).<\/p>\n
Fuku\u015fima\u2019da \u00e7evredekilerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 doz ve ki\u015fi say\u0131lar\u0131 ba\u015fka varsay\u0131mlarla farkl\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. \u00d6rne\u011fin ortalama doz 20 mSv yerine 100 mSv ve bu dozu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 100.000 yerine 300.000 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0 kanserden \u00f6leceklerin say\u0131s\u0131 15 kat artarak 1500 ki\u015fiyi bulacakt\u0131r. Radyasyon nedeniyle kansere yakalan\u0131p \u00f6leceklerin, hesaplar\u0131 yapanlar\u0131n varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na g\u00f6re farkl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni buradad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Benzer hesaplama,130 milyonluk Japon halk\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fal radyasyondan her y\u0131l ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalama 2,4 mSv\u2019lik dozu i\u00e7in de yap\u0131labilir ve y\u0131lda 15.600 ki\u015finin kanserden \u00f6lece\u011fi bulunur (=2,4 mSv x 0,05\/1000mSv\u00a0 x 130.000.000 milyon ki\u015fi). \u00d6te yandan t\u00fcm di\u011fer etkenler sonucu ortalama kanser \u00f6l\u00fcm riski olan %25 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japon halk\u0131n\u0131n her y\u0131l \u00f6len 1,4 milyonundan 350.000\u2019nin zaten \u00e7e\u015fitli etkenlerle kansere yakalan\u0131p \u00f6lece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. %25\u2019lik genel kanser riski\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erlidir (d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131).<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi t\u00fcm bu \u00e7e\u015fit hesaplamalarla bulunan \u2018kanserden \u00f6lecek ki\u015fi say\u0131lar\u0131\u2019 bilimsel olarak kan\u0131tlanamayacak kestirimlerdir (tahminlerdir). Bu hesaplamalarda kullan\u0131lan doz de\u011ferleri ve ki\u015fi say\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tamayaca\u011f\u0131\u00a0 gibi y\u00fcksek dozlar\u0131n riskinden gidilerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozlar i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan orant\u0131yla risk kestiriminin temeli, bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda zaten tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r ve uluslararas\u0131 yetkili kurulu\u015f (UNSCEAR) (2) bu \u00e7e\u015fit hesaplamalar\u0131 \u00f6nermiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu konuda bilimsel olarak izlenen do\u011fru yol, kapsaml\u0131 t\u0131bbi ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarla ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 doz \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmleriyle bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n radyasyondan etkilenen her y\u00f6reyi kapsayacak \u015fekilde yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve radyasyondan etkilenmeyen di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n t\u0131bbi kontrolleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r ki ad\u0131na \u2018epidemiyolojik ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u2019 denilen bu \u00e7e\u015fit bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar n\u00fckleer santral kazalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcrekli yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak bu \u00e7e\u015fit say\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcz binleri bulan ki\u015filerin g\u00f6zlem alt\u0131nda bulunduruldu\u011fu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar onlarca y\u0131l s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bilindi\u011fi gibi kanser radyasyondan ba\u015fka y\u00fczlerce etkenle de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilmekte ve bunlar\u0131n ay\u0131rt edilebilmesi yo\u011fun ve uzun s\u00fcreli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 gerektiriyor. \u00d6te yandan kanserin kulu\u00e7kal\u0131k d\u00f6nemi, kanserin cinsine g\u00f6re 3 ile 20 y\u0131l aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finden, kanserin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in epey beklemek gerekiyor. Bu nedenle n\u00fckleer santral kazalar\u0131ndan hemen ya da 1-2 y\u0131l sonra yap\u0131lan kanser \u00f6l\u00fcmleriyle ilgili kestirimlere de\u011fer verilmemelidir.<\/p>\n
D\u0130PNOTLAR \u00c7ernobil ve Fuku\u015fima kazalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 baz\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n kanserden \u00f6leceklerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 az, ba\u015fka ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n ise \u00e7ok fazla hesaplad\u0131klar\u0131 zaman zaman medyada yer al\u0131yor. Konuya yabanc\u0131 olanlar ise, bunlardan hangisinin ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, kime inanacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyorlar. Bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni, her bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplarda kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da baz\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ve genellemelerle varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalama radyasyon dozu ve bu dozu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":560,"featured_media":41825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[149,38,535],"tags":[1601,198,555,444,827,1557,1600],"class_list":["post-41824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-112-sayi","category-dergi-sayilari","category-forum","tag-cernobil","tag-cevre","tag-insan","tag-kanser","tag-nukleer","tag-olum","tag-radyasyon"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t
\n<\/strong>1) WHO Report, Feb. 2013 – Health risk assessment from the Fukushima nuclear accident 2011.
\nBkz: 15 Mart 2013 g\u00fcnl\u00fc Cumhuriyet Bilim ve Teknoloji<\/em> dergisindeki \u201cFuku\u015fima N\u00fckleer Kazas\u0131n\u0131n Sa\u011fl\u0131\u011fa Etkisi?\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131z.
\n2) UNSCEAR: Radyasyonun etkilerini ve radyasyondan korunmayla ilgili \u00f6nlemleri, s\u0131n\u0131r de\u011ferleri d\u00fcnyadaki ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak de\u011ferlendiren ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fclkelere \u00f6neren uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"