{"id":44305,"date":"2020-05-22T10:58:17","date_gmt":"2020-05-22T07:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=44305"},"modified":"2020-06-10T15:18:09","modified_gmt":"2020-06-10T12:18:09","slug":"turkiye-elektrik-uretiminde-gunes-santrallarinin-payi-ileride-ne-kadar-artabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2020\/05\/22\/turkiye-elektrik-uretiminde-gunes-santrallarinin-payi-ileride-ne-kadar-artabilir","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye elektrik \u00fcretiminde g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 ileride ne kadar artabilir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Y\u00fczlerce yeni g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00c7ok geni\u015f alanlar\u0131 kaplad\u0131klar\u0131ndan, ekosistemi bozmayacak yerler bulunmas\u0131 ve i\u00e7lerinde zehirli maddelerin az oldu\u011fu kaliteli panellerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Y\u00fczer santrallar yap\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye 2018\u2019de toplam 305 TWh elektrik enerjisi \u00fcretti. Bunun %2,6 kadar\u0131 ya da 7,9 TWh\u2019\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinden, toplam 5.000 MWp (peak) g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcyle sa\u011fland\u0131 (HBT\u2019deki ilgili yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in bkz. 1, 3-5). 7,9 TWh\u2019l\u0131k \u00fcretim, kurulu g\u00fcce oranla %18\u2019lik bir verime kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor ki, daha az g\u00fcne\u015fli Almanya\u2019daki %11\u2019lik verimle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu y\u00fcksek bir verimdir (Birimler yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sonunda).<\/p>\n

T.C. Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’nca yay\u0131mlanan bir de\u011ferlendirme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda\u201a G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjisi Santrallar\u0131 Kapasite ve \u00dcretim Miktarlar\u0131n\u0131n 2030 Y\u0131l\u0131na Kadar Resmi Hedef Senaryosuna G\u00f6re Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 Y\u0131llar ve eklenen Kurulu G\u00fc\u00e7 (MWp), Toplam Kurulu G\u00fc\u00e7 (MWp) ve Toplam Elektrik \u00dcretim miktarlar\u0131 (TWh) \u00e7izelgelerle verilmektedir.(2) Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, “T\u00fcrkiye’de g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi santrallar\u0131 kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc, y\u0131lda ortalama olarak 500 MWp art\u0131m g\u00f6sterebilir ve de\u011ferlendirmenin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 2017\u2019deki toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7le birlikte 2030’da toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 8500 MWp de\u011ferine ula\u015fabilir” kestirimi yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Biz, \u00e7ok daha iyimser bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi santrallar\u0131n\u0131n kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin y\u0131lda 500 MWp de\u011fil, 1.000 MWp artabilece\u011fini ya da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda\u201a 10.000 MWp artarak, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam 15.000 MWp kurulu g\u00fcce y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini\u201a bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcp, durumu inceleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Almanya\u2019da yap\u0131lacak bir g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 i\u00e7in planlanan b\u00fcy\u00fck alan.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yap\u0131lacak santrallarla 10.000 MW\u2019l\u0131k kurulu g\u00fcce ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6rne\u011fin 100 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7teki santrallar kurulacak olursa, bunlardan 100 adet gerekecek ve 10 y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda yeni santrallarla \u00fcretilecek ek elektrik enerjisi (g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki en y\u00fcksek verimi olan %18 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak) y\u0131lda 15,77 TWh olacakt\u0131r. Ku\u015fkusuz kurulacak g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131 100 MWp\u2018den daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olabileceklerdir, ancak toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 bu varsay\u0131mda de\u011fi\u015fmeyecektir. Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de i\u015fleyen en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 sadece 50 MWp kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcndedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Toprak y\u00fczeyini pek bozmayan panel dizileri (Aralarda ve yanlarda b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken yollar, paneller i\u00e7in gerekli geni\u015f alan\u0131 \u00e7ok daha da b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7le birlikte 2030\u2019daki toplam kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 15.000 MW olabilirse, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinden \u00fcretilebilecek toplam elektrik miktar\u0131 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 24 TWh (=7,9 +15,77) de\u011ferine y\u00fckselecektir. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n verilerine g\u00f6re 2018\u2019de 305 TWh olan toplam
\nelektrik t\u00fcketiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k % 4,8 art\u0131mla 2023\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 376 TWh miktara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor (7). 2023\u2019den sonraki t\u00fcketimde y\u0131ll\u0131k % 4,8’lik art\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrsek 2030\u2019da toplam elektrik t\u00fcketiminin kabaca 500 TWh olaca\u011f\u0131 kestirilebilir. 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinin pay\u0131 ise (y\u0131lda 1000 MW\u2018 l\u0131k kurulu
\ng\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck iyimser art\u0131m varsay\u0131m\u0131m\u0131za ra\u011fmen), sadece % 5 kadar olacakt\u0131r (= 24 TWh\/500 TWh).<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elektrik \u00fcretiminde bu % 5’lik pay\u0131n sa\u011flanabilmesi i\u00e7in, bizce, \u015funlar yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r:<\/p>\n

1. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce 10 y\u0131l boyunca, her y\u0131l 1000 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7te santrallar kuracak \u015firketlerin ya da kurumlar\u0131n, buna haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

2. Her santral\u0131n y\u00fcz binlerce panelinin kapsayaca\u011f\u0131 geni\u015f alanl\u0131 uygun yerlerin \u00e7ok say\u0131da ve ekosistemi bozmadan bulunabilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n

3. Yeni yap\u0131lacak \u00e7ok say\u0131da santral i\u00e7in yeni elektrik a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n (\u015febekelerin) yap\u0131lmas\u0131, ayr\u0131ca her bir santral i\u00e7in toprak alt\u0131 kablo kanallar\u0131n\u0131n, yol, bina ve su gibi ek gereksinimlerin kar\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

10.000 MW “Ek Kurulu G\u00fc\u00e7” i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 adet panel gerekir ve bunlar ne kadar alan kaplar?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yeni yap\u0131lacak g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n her birinin 100 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7te oldu\u011fu ve her santralda 200 Watt\u2019l\u0131k g\u00fcne\u015f panelleri (1,65 m x 1m b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ve 20 kg k\u00fctlesinde) kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde: 100 MW\u2019l\u0131k bir santral i\u00e7in 500.000 adet panel (= 100 milyon Watt\/200 Watt) gerekir. Her bir panel i\u00e7in ortalama 4 m2 lik br\u00fct bir alan hesaplan\u0131rsa, 100 MW\u2019l\u0131k bir santral\u0131n 500.000 adet paneli i\u00e7in 2 Milyon m2 (= 200 Hektar) bir alan gerekecektir. (1.400 m x 1.400 m kenarl\u0131 bir kare alan kadar). Bu alan, sadece 100 MWp ya da %18 verim sonucu, net 18 MW ortalama g\u00fc\u00e7le y\u0131l boyunca \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak bir santral i\u00e7in \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir aland\u0131r. (G\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fczde canland\u0131rabilmek i\u00e7in: 280 adet futbol sahas\u0131 kadar bir alan. Bir futbol sahas\u0131:
\n105 mx 68m=7140 m2).<\/p>\n

Panellerin aralar\u0131ndaki uzakl\u0131k ve \u00e7evre yollar\u0131 i\u00e7in santrallara ger\u00e7ekte daha geni\u015f alanlar da gerekebilir (Resimlere ve \u00c7izelgeye bkz). Toplam 10.000 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 i\u00e7in ise 50 milyon panel ve 100 MW’l\u0131k 100 adet g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 i\u00e7in: 100 x 2 km2= 200 km2 ya da 20.000 Hektar alan gerekecektir (28.000 futbol sahas\u0131 kadar)).<\/p>\n

G\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n verimlerinin di\u011fer santrallar\u0131n verimleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131da MWp olarak verilen elektrik g\u00fc\u00e7leri, y\u0131l\u0131n en s\u0131cak g\u00fcnlerinde ula\u015fabilecekleri peak ya da maksimum de\u011ferler olup k\u00f6m\u00fcr, do\u011fal gaz ve n\u00fckleer santrallar\u0131n MW kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lamaz. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1000 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7teki g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 y\u0131l boyunca en y\u00fcksek %18 verimle ortalama 180 MW g\u00fc\u00e7teki bir santral kadar elektrik \u00fcretirken, 1000 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7teki bir k\u00f6m\u00fcr santral\u0131 %60 verimle 600 MW, ayn\u0131 kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7teki bir n\u00fckleer santral ise %80 verimle 800 MW elektrik \u00fcretebiliyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u00c7izelge: G\u00fcne\u015f Santrallar\u0131n\u0131n elektrik g\u00fc\u00e7leri (MWpeak), y\u0131lda \u00fcrettikleri elektrik enerjileri (GWh) ve kaplad\u0131klar\u0131 alanlarla ilgili baz\u0131 \u00f6rnekler (Baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k hesaplar yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin: Planlanan Konya Karap\u0131nar santral\u0131 i\u00e7in 5 Milyon panel ve 2,74 km kenarl\u0131 bir kare alan gerekli).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yukar\u0131daki hesaplardan ve kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalardan \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7lar:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. G\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131, y\u0131l boyunca \u00fcretebildikleri elektrik miktarlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (geceleri g\u00fcne\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan) di\u011fer santrallarla bire bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lamayacak kadar hem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar hem de santrallar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck alanlara kurulmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. En y\u00fcksek verim %18 ve kaplad\u0131klar\u0131 alanlar di\u011fer santrallar\u0131n en az 200 kat\u0131.<\/p>\n

2. 1000 MWp kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7te yeni santrallar her y\u0131l s\u00fcrekli yap\u0131labilirse dahi, g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda 15.000 MWp’l\u0131k toplam kurulu g\u00fcce ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin toplamdaki pay\u0131 ancak % 5 olabilecek.<\/p>\n

3. Bu orana ula\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in yeni elektrik a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve daha ba\u015fka bir dizi sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi de gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

4. Yap\u0131lacak yeni santrallar\u0131n bir \u00e7o\u011funun art\u0131k kullan\u0131lmayan eski end\u00fcstri b\u00f6lgelerine, eski hava alanlar\u0131na ya da y\u00fczer santrallar olarak g\u00f6l, deniz ve barajlara kurulmalar\u0131 do\u011fay\u0131 pek bozmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan uzmanlarca ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve buralarda kurulmalar\u0131 yararl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r (Di\u011fer yaz\u0131m\u0131za bkz \/1,3,4, 5\/).<\/p>\n

5. 20-25 y\u0131l sonra ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak 100 milyon\u2019dan fazla hurda panellerdeki zehirli maddelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, cam, al\u00fcminyum, silisyum gibi di\u011fer maddelerin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmleri i\u00e7in \u015fimdiden planlar yap\u0131lmal\u0131 ilgili yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar mevzuata al\u0131nmal\u0131 (Bu konuyla ilgili daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z yak\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanacak).<\/p>\n

6. Kaliteli paneller ve ekosistemi bozmayacak yerler se\u00e7ilebilirse, g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle santrallar \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken CO2 sal\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ve bunlar\u0131n \u00fcrettikleri elektrik kadar di\u011fer santrallardan daha az elektrik \u00fcretilece\u011finden, yararl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r (Bkz. Resim).<\/p>\n

Not: G\u00fcne\u015f panellerinde bulunan sa\u011fl\u0131\u011fa zararl\u0131 kimyasal maddelerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131yla ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla ilgili daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zdaki \u00f6nerilerin g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak gerekli \u00f6nlemlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131 yararl\u0131 olabilir ve 25-30 y\u0131l sonra \u00fclkemizin bir \u00e7ok yerinin y\u00fcz binlerce eski panel \u00e7\u00f6pl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6nlenebilir.<\/p>\n

\n

(*) 1 Watt: Elektrik g\u00fc\u00e7 birimi olup \u2018Enerji aktar\u0131m (transfer) h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\u2019 g\u00f6steriyor (enerji de\u011fil, enerjiyle kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamal\u0131!). G\u00fc\u00e7 (W)= Ws\/s<\/p>\n

Enerji birimi: WattSaniye (Ws) = G\u00fc\u00e7 (Watt) x Saniye (s).<\/p>\n

1 WattSaniye (1Ws): 1 saniyede \u00fcretilen ya da t\u00fcketilen 1 Joule\u2019l\u00fck enerji, elektrikte, 1 Ws\u2019dir.<\/p>\n

1 Joule: \u00d6rne\u011fin 100 graml\u0131k \u00e7ikolata paketini yerden 1m yukar\u0131ya kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in gereken enerji.<\/p>\n

1 WattSaat (1 Wh) = G\u00fc\u00e7 (Watt) x Saat (h).<\/p>\n

1 kWh = 1000 Wh, 1 MWh= 1 Milyon Wh, 1 GWh= 1 Milyar Wh, 1 TWh= 1 Trilyon Wh= 1 Milyar kWh
\n\u00d6rne\u011fin 1 milyar 100 Watt\u2019l\u0131k ampul\u00fc 10 saat yakabilmek i\u00e7in 1 milyar kWh\u2019l\u0131k enerji gerekecek.<\/p>\n

\n

Kaynaklar:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjsisinden Elektrik \u00fcretimi Y.Atakan, Herkese Bilim Teknoloji Dergisi 198. Say\u0131s\u0131 Ocak 2020<\/p>\n

2. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjisi potansiyeli T.C.Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Uzmanl\u0131k Tezi, Seda Cebeci, 2017, Ekler
\nhttp:\/\/www.sbb.gov.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Seda-Cebeci.pdf<\/p>\n

3. G\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131nlar\u0131ndan elektrik \u00fcretmeyi kimler nas\u0131l ak\u0131l etti ve geli\u015ftirdi? HBT Say\u0131 205 Y.Atakan 28 \u015eubat 2020<\/p>\n

4. Y\u00fczer g\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131yla elektrik \u00fcretimi, HBT Say\u0131 206, 6 Mart 2020, Atakan<\/p>\n

5. G\u00fcne\u015f santrallar\u0131n\u0131n sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n giderilebilmesi i\u00e7in neler yap\u0131labilir, Bilim ve Gelecek Dergisi 184 say\u0131s\u0131, Nisan 2020<\/p>\n

6. https:\/\/docs.google.com\/viewer?url=https:\/\/www.fmo.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/GUNES-PANELLERI-Atakan-30062018-1.pdf&embedded=true&iframe<\/p>\n

7. https:\/\/www.enerji.gov.tr\/tr-TR\/Sayfalar\/Elektrik<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Y\u00fczlerce yeni g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00c7ok geni\u015f alanlar\u0131 kaplad\u0131klar\u0131ndan, ekosistemi bozmayacak yerler bulunmas\u0131 ve i\u00e7lerinde zehirli maddelerin az oldu\u011fu kaliteli panellerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Y\u00fczer santrallar yap\u0131lmal\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 2018\u2019de toplam 305 TWh elektrik enerjisi \u00fcretti. Bunun %2,6 kadar\u0131 ya da 7,9 TWh\u2019\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinden, toplam 5.000 MWp (peak) g\u00fcne\u015f santral\u0131 kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcyle sa\u011fland\u0131 (HBT\u2019deki ilgili […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":560,"featured_media":44310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[1017,6706,1506,838],"class_list":["post-44305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilim-gundemi","tag-elektrik","tag-gunes-paneli","tag-nukleer-santral","tag-turkiye"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t