{"id":45780,"date":"2020-07-30T00:00:20","date_gmt":"2020-07-29T21:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=45780"},"modified":"2020-08-17T10:17:37","modified_gmt":"2020-08-17T07:17:37","slug":"istanbul-depremi-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2020\/07\/30\/istanbul-depremi-bekliyor","title":{"rendered":"\u0130stanbul, depremi bekliyor!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bug\u00fcne kadar elde edilen bilgileri ve kay\u0131p risklerini inceledi\u011fimizde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u0130stanbul\u2019un yeniden deprem tehlikesinin belirlenmesine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermek ve \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak m\u0131 olmayacak m\u0131\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda kaybolmak yerine, b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir mek\u00e2nsal planlama yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla \u00f6ncelikli risk alanlar\u0131nda risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 eylemleri i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00e7aba harcamam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. <\/em><\/p>\n

17 A\u011fustos 1999\u2019da Kocaeli-G\u00f6lc\u00fck merkezli 7.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin neden oldu\u011fu can kayb\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 ve yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahribat t\u00fcm \u00fclkede bir travma olu\u015fturdu. O deprem bir \u015fehir depremiydi. Deprem, n\u00fcfusun ve sanayinin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu, milli geliri y\u00fcksek bir \u015fehirde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130nsan ve ekonomi kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc depremin bir milat olarak an\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu. Bu depremin bat\u0131ya do\u011fru Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair sismolojik bulgular, \u0130stanbul\u2019un yak\u0131n bir gelecekte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi (1, 2, 3). Yirmi birinci y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 bitirdi\u011fimiz bu b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131ma neden olan depremin bir benzerinin Marmara Denizi\u2019nde oldu\u011funda n\u00fcfusu 20 milyona ko\u015fan kadim \u015fehir \u0130stanbul\u2019da nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilece\u011fi \u00fczerine bir\u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131ld\u0131 (4, 5, 6, 7, 8). Bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc halen s\u00fcren benzer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130stanbul depremi olarak nitelenen depreme ili\u015fkin ne zaman olacak, ka\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olacak, merkezi nerede olacak, k\u0131r\u0131lan fay\u0131n boyu ne kadar olacak, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc m\u00fc yoksa iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc m\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lacak, kilitlenen yerleri var m\u0131, tsunami yaratacak m\u0131 gibi sorular halen soruluyor ve yan\u0131tlar aran\u0131yor. \u0130zmit k\u00f6rfezinin a\u011fz\u0131ndan Prens Adalar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcneyine do\u011fru uzanan, Silivri ve Tekirda\u011f\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan M\u00fcrefte-\u015eark\u00f6y\u2019\u00fc ge\u00e7erek Saros K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin bat\u0131s\u0131na ula\u015fan Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir kolu olan Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131, beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin mek\u00e2n\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Kuzey Marmara Fay\u0131 Yass\u0131ada ve Sivriada\u2019ya 3 km, di\u011fer adalara 8 km, Anadolu yakas\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ortalama 14 km, Avrupa yakas\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ise 10 km ile 24 km aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen uzakl\u0131klarda yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Son bulgulara g\u00f6re \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem tehlike ve riskleri nedir?
\n<\/em><\/strong>Son 2000 y\u0131ll\u0131k Marmara depremleri ge\u00e7mi\u015fine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 7 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 39 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 8500 y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u00fclt\u00fcrel miras izlerini bar\u0131nd\u0131ran bu co\u011frafya \u00e7ok kez depremlerden etkilenmi\u015f, Marmara Denizi k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda 37 tane tsunami olu\u015fmu\u015f ve bu afetler \u00e7ok say\u0131da can ve mal kay\u0131plar\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur.
\n17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminden sonra Marmara Denizi ve yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinin deprem yaratacak fay yap\u0131lar\u0131, deprem tarihi, deprem \u00f6zellikleri, deprem tehlikesi, olas\u0131 riskler ve kay\u0131plar \u00fczerine y\u00fczlerce makale ve onlarca bilimsel rapor yaz\u0131ld\u0131 ve toplant\u0131lar yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dcniversitelerimizdeki yerbilimciler, deprembilimciler ve deprem m\u00fchendisleri yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeden yabanc\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131n da kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 projeler yap\u0131ld\u0131. Marmara Denizi\u2019nin taban\u0131 ve yer kabu\u011fu yap\u0131s\u0131 ve faylar\u0131n hareketleri \u00fczerine sismik ara\u015ft\u0131rma gemileri ile \u00e7ok say\u0131da deniz jeolojisi ve jeofizi\u011fi projeleri uyguland\u0131. Bug\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131 halen s\u00fcren bu projeler Marmara Denizi\u2019nin kuzeyinde \u0130stanbul ve \u00e7evresini \u00f6nemli derecede etkileyecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu. 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depremi sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan tehlike modellerine dayanarak bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in resmi olarak beyan edilen tehlike tan\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re Kuzey Marmara\u2019da 7.0 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 65\u2019dir ve bu her y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,5 artmaktad\u0131r (1). Bu olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin karada yarataca\u011f\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131 \u015fiddeti ve denizde yarataca\u011f\u0131 tsunami yaln\u0131zca \u0130stanbul\u2019u de\u011fil, Marmara Denizi\u2019nde k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 olan t\u00fcm il ve il\u00e7eleri etkileyecektir. N\u00fcfusu ve sanayi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 giderek artan Marmara co\u011frafyas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca \u0130stanbul de\u011fil, t\u00fcm Marmara yapmal\u0131d\u0131r. 17 A\u011fustos 1999 G\u00f6lc\u00fck deprem merkezinden 90 km uzakta olan Avc\u0131lar il\u00e7esindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve hasarlar\u0131 hat\u0131rlamakta yarar vard\u0131r.
\nTu\u0308rkiye deprem yo\u0308netmeliklerini 1947, 1953, 1961, 1968, 1975, 1996 ve 2007 y\u0131llar\u0131nda olmak u\u0308zere toplam 7 kez revize etmis\u0327tir (9). Ancak uygulamalar c\u0327og\u0306unlukla denetimsiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde h\u00e2l\u00e2 5.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde depremlerde dahi hasar ve kay\u0131plar\u0131m\u0131z olmaktad\u0131r. 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminden sonra oldukc\u0327a gecikerek de olsa, yeni \u201cTu\u0308rkiye Bina Deprem Yo\u0308netmelig\u0306i (TBDY) ve Tu\u0308rkiye Deprem Tehlike Haritas\u0131 (TDTH)\u201d 18 Mart 2018 tarih ve 30364 say\u0131l\u0131 resmi\u0302 gazetede yay\u0131nlanm\u0131s\u0327t\u0131r. Gu\u0308ncelleme gerekc\u0327eleri a) gelis\u0327en bilgi ve teknolojilere bag\u0306l\u0131 olarak gereksinmeler, b) kullan\u0131lan malzeme c\u0327es\u0327itlilig\u0306inin ve yap\u0131 modellerinin artmas\u0131, c) mevcut yap\u0131 stokunun o\u0308nemli bir bo\u0308lu\u0308mu\u0308nu\u0308n deprem dayan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yetersiz olmas\u0131, d) kentsel do\u0308nu\u0308s\u0327u\u0308m\/yenileme ve yap\u0131sal risk azaltma kapsam\u0131nda deg\u0306erlendirme ve gu\u0308c\u0327lendirme olarak s\u0131ralanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 1. 1 Ocak 2019 tarihinde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren T\u00fcrkiye Deprem Tehlike Haritas\u0131 (TDTH)\u2019na g\u00f6re 50 y\u0131lda % 10 a\u015f\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130stanbul\u2019da beklenen maksimum deprem yer hareketi ivme \u015fiddet de\u011ferlerinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yo\u0308netmelig\u0306in amac\u0327 ve kapsam bas\u0327l\u0131g\u0306\u0131nda s\u0327u ac\u0327\u0131klama vard\u0131r: \u201cBu Yo\u0308netmelig\u0306in amac\u0131; yeniden yap\u0131lacak, deg\u0306is\u0327tirilecek, bu\u0308yu\u0308tu\u0308lecek resmi ve o\u0308zel tu\u0308m binalar\u0131n ve bina tu\u0308ru\u0308 yap\u0131lar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n veya bo\u0308lu\u0308mlerinin deprem etkisi alt\u0131nda tasar\u0131m\u0131 ve yap\u0131m\u0131 ile mevcut binalar\u0131n deprem etkisi alt\u0131ndaki performanslar\u0131n\u0131n deg\u0306erlendirilmesi ve gu\u0308c\u0327lendirilmesi ic\u0327in gerekli kurallar\u0131 ve minimum kos\u0327ullar\u0131 belirlemektir.\u201d Yo\u0308netmelik 1 Ocak 2019 tarihinde yu\u0308ru\u0308rlu\u0308g\u0306e girmi\u015ftir. Bu y\u00f6netmelikle ilk kez y\u00fcksek yap\u0131lar (H\u226560 m) deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011fine kavu\u015fmu\u015ftur. Bu duruma g\u00f6re 2019\u2019dan \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u0130stanbul\u2019da olan y\u00fcksek yap\u0131lar\u0131n hangi teknik y\u00f6netmeliklere g\u00f6re yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve deprem performanslar\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131 sorgulanmal\u0131d\u0131r.
\nYeni Tu\u0308rkiye Deprem Tehlike Haritas\u0131 (TDTH), olas\u0131l\u0131ksal sismik tehlike hesap yo\u0308ntemi kullan\u0131larak c\u0327es\u0327itli gerc\u0327ekles\u0327me olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve yer hareketi parametreleri ic\u0327in u\u0308retilmis\u0327tir. Hesaplarda u\u0308lke s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n 200 km d\u0131s\u0327\u0131nda olan deprem kaynaklar\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nm\u0131s\u0327t\u0131r. Bu hesaplardan hareketle yeni TDTH \u201c% 50 alansal kaynak ve % 50 c\u0327izgisel ve meka\u0302nsal du\u0308zles\u0327tirilmis\u0327 sismik kaynak\u201d ag\u0306\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131yla birles\u0327tirilerek elde edilmis\u0327tir. TDTH yeryu\u0308zu\u0308ne yatay yo\u0308nde yer sars\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 tehlike deg\u0306erleri olan en bu\u0308yu\u0308k ivme (PGA), en bu\u0308yu\u0308k parc\u0327ac\u0131k h\u0131zlar\u0131 (PGV) ve bunlar\u0131n T=0.2 s ve T=1 s\u2019lik periyodlar\u0131 ic\u0327in ivme ve parc\u0327ac\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 deg\u0306erleri, 2475 y\u0131l (c\u0327ok seyrek), 475 y\u0131l (seyrek), 72 y\u0131l (s\u0131k) ve 43 y\u0131l (c\u0327ok s\u0131k) gibi do\u0308rt farkl\u0131 yineleme do\u0308nemine go\u0308re hesaplanm\u0131s\u0327t\u0131r. Sonuc\u0327ta 24 farkl\u0131 kos\u0327ul ic\u0327in ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 deprem tehlike haritas\u0131 u\u0308retilmis\u0327tir. \u015eekil 1\u2019de yeni deprem tehlike haritas\u0131na g\u00f6re 475 y\u0131ll\u0131k yineleme d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re (50 y\u0131lda % 10 olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) \u0130stanbul\u2019u etkilemesi beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin sa\u011flam zemin \u00fczerinde yarataca\u011f\u0131 maksimum yatay ivme de\u011ferleri g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. K\u0131y\u0131lara yak\u0131n il\u00e7elerde bu de\u011ferler eskisine g\u00f6re % 30\u2019a varan oranlarda artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin bu art\u0131\u015f de\u011feri Yass\u0131ada ve Sivriada\u2019da % 37\u2019dir (10).
\n\u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi olas\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fck depremde \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem ve tsunami tehlike ve hasar analizlerinin revizyonunu Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi ve Orta Do\u011fu Teknik \u00dcniversitesi\u2019ne yapt\u0131rd\u0131 (7, 8). Kay\u0131p ve hasar analizleri i\u00e7in Marmara\u2019n\u0131n deprem ve tsunami tarihi, jeoloji, jeofizik ve jeoteknik et\u00fctlerden elde edilen zemin ve diri fay bulgular\u0131, n\u00fcfus, bina ve alt yap\u0131 envanteri kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Bu c\u0327al\u0131s\u0327mada, olas\u0131l\u0131ksal deprem tehlikesi dag\u0306\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve senaryo depremleri sonucunda, I\u0307stanbul\u2019da beklenebilecek bina, nu\u0308fus ve altyap\u0131 hasar ve kay\u0131p tahminleri sunuldu. Olas\u0131l\u0131ksal deprem tehlikesinde 72, 475 ve 2475 y\u0131ll\u0131k u\u0308c\u0327 yinelenme periyodu, deterministik deprem tehlikesi ic\u0327in ise Mw=7.5 bu\u0308yu\u0308klu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308ndeki bir senaryo depremi ve kaynak o\u0308zelliklerine ve hesaplama yo\u0308ntemine go\u0308re birbirinden ayr\u0131lan 15 deprem benzetimi kullan\u0131ld\u0131. B\u00f6ylece be\u015f farkl\u0131 ko\u015fula g\u00f6re bina, nu\u0308fus ve altyap\u0131 hasar ve kay\u0131p tahminleri verildi (\u00c7izelge 1). Bu raporlar il geneli yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ayr\u0131ca il\u00e7e baz\u0131nda Haziran 2020 tarihinde kitap\u00e7\u0131klar halinde yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.
\n\u0130stanbul\u2019da deprem hasar ve kay\u0131p analizi 2000 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ncesi in\u015fa edilmi\u015f toplam 1.166.330 bina i\u00e7in yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Analizlere \u0130stanbul\u2019un t\u00fcm altyap\u0131lar\u0131 dahil edilmi\u015ftir. Mw=7.5 bu\u0308yu\u0308klu\u0308g\u0306u\u0308ndeki deterministik senaryo depreminde I\u0307stanbul\u2019daki binalar\u0131n ortalama % 57\u2019sinin hasar go\u0308rmeyeceg\u0306i tahmin edilmektedir. Binalar\u0131n ortalama % 26\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n hafif, % 13\u2019u\u0308nu\u0308n orta, % 3\u2019u\u0308nu\u0308n ag\u0306\u0131r ve % 1\u2019inin \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r hasar g\u00f6rmesi beklenmektedir (\u00c7izelge 1). Buna g\u00f6re I\u0307stanbul\u2019da yaklas\u0327\u0131k 194.000 binan\u0131n tekrar kullan\u0131lamayacak durumda orta ve u\u0308stu\u0308 seviyede hasar go\u0308receg\u0306i tahmin edilmektedir. Yaklas\u0327\u0131k 972.000 binan\u0131n ise hasars\u0131z veya hafif hasarl\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Orta hasarl\u0131 binalar\u0131n onar\u0131m yerine y\u0131k\u0131l\u0131p yeniden ins\u0327as\u0131 \u00f6nerilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

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\u00c7izelge 1. Farkl\u0131 deprem senaryo ve olas\u0131l\u0131k modelleri i\u00e7in I\u0307stanbul\u2019daki binalar\u0131n hasar durumu (7).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00c7izelge 1\u2019de verilen deprem senaryo ve olas\u0131l\u0131k modelleri i\u00e7in I\u0307stanbul\u2019daki can kayb\u0131 ve \u00e7e\u015fitli d\u00fczeylerde yaralanma olaylar\u0131na dair say\u0131lar \u00c7izelge 2\u2019de g\u00f6sterilmektedir. Can kayb\u0131 deterministik senaryoda 14.148 d\u00fczeyinde hesaplan\u0131rken, benzetim senaryosunda 23.350, olas\u0131l\u0131ksal hesaplamalara g\u00f6re ise 4104\u2019den 206.148\u2019e ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Benzetim senaryolar\u0131 ortalama can kayb\u0131 ve yaral\u0131 tahminleri, deterministik senaryo ic\u0327in yap\u0131lan tahminlerin yaklas\u0327\u0131k 1,5 kat\u0131d\u0131r. 475 y\u0131l yinelenme periyodu ic\u0327in yap\u0131lan tahminler ise deterministik senaryonunun kabaca 3,7 kat\u0131na denk gelmektedir. Burada da benzetim senaryolar\u0131ndan elde edilen say\u0131lar\u0131n, senaryo o\u0308zelliklerine go\u0308re o\u0308nemli farkl\u0131l\u0131klar go\u0308sterdig\u0306i a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Yap\u0131sal hasara bag\u0306l\u0131 mali kay\u0131plar\u0131n ortalama 68 milyar TL d\u00fczeyinde olmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Yap\u0131sal olmayan hasarlara bag\u0306l\u0131 kay\u0131plar da go\u0308z o\u0308nu\u0308ne al\u0131nd\u0131g\u0306\u0131nda mali kayb\u0131n 120 milyar TL d\u00fczeyinde gerc\u0327ekles\u0327mesi o\u0308ngo\u0308ru\u0308lmektedir. Bu olas\u0131l\u0131k Mw=7.5 senaryo depremi ic\u0327in gec\u0327erlidir.<\/p>\n

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\u00c7izelge 2. Farkl\u0131 deprem senaryo ve olas\u0131l\u0131k modelleri i\u00e7in I\u0307stanbul\u2019daki can kayb\u0131 ve yaralanmalar (gece n\u00fcfusuna g\u00f6re hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (7).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u00c7izelge 3. \u0130stanbul\u2019un il\u00e7elerinde kay\u0131p ve hasar de\u011ferleri. \u0130l\u00e7eler a\u011f\u0131r hasar de\u011ferlerine g\u00f6re s\u0131ralanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Veriler \u0130stanbul \u0130li Olas\u0131 Deprem Kay\u0131p Tahminlerinin G\u00fcncellenmesi Projesi raporundan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (7).* Adalar il\u00e7esinin kay\u0131p analizleri k\u0131\u015f n\u00fcfusuna g\u00f6re yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yaz aylar\u0131 n\u00fcfus 50.000\u2019e ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Can kayb\u0131 ve yaralanma say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaz aylar\u0131nda bir deprem g\u00f6re hesaplanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin tsunami etkileri \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda her zaman \u00f6nemli bir konu olmu\u015ftur (6). Tsunami raporu Orta Do\u011fu Teknik \u00dcniversitesi grubu taraf\u0131ndan \u0130BB i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (10). \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in iki t\u00fcrl\u00fc tsunami olu\u015fum mekanizmas\u0131 vard\u0131r: a) depremi olu\u015fturan fay hareketinin tetikledi\u011fi tsunami, b) deniz taban\u0131 heyelan\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi tsunami. Her ikisi i\u00e7in de tsunami raporunda tsunami etki senaryolar\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130stanbul\u2019un baz\u0131 il\u00e7e k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda deniz heyelan\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunami deprem faylanmas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunamiden daha fazlad\u0131r. Bunun nedeni o heyelan b\u00f6lgesinin o il\u00e7e k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131na daha yak\u0131n olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Tsunami raporunda il\u00e7e baz\u0131nda tsunami su basma y\u00fckseklikleri, su basma uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (k\u0131y\u0131dan i\u00e7eri girme uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131), hangi t\u00fcr ve ka\u00e7 yap\u0131y\u0131 etkileyece\u011fi listelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

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\u00c7izelge 4. CMN modeli deprem fay\u0131n\u0131n tsunami modeli i\u00e7in Ku\u0308c\u0327u\u0308kc\u0327ekmece ilc\u0327esi mahalle bazl\u0131 su basma analizi sonuc\u0327lar\u0131 (8).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u00c7izelge 5. LSBC modeli deniz heyelan\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 tsunami i\u00e7in Ku\u0308c\u0327u\u0308kc\u0327ekmece ilc\u0327esi mahalle bazl\u0131 su basma analizi sonuc\u0327lar\u0131 (8).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi\u2019nin Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi ve Orta Do\u011fu Teknik \u00dcniversitesi\u2019ne yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cI\u0307stanbul I\u0307li Olas\u0131 Deprem Kay\u0131p Tahminlerinin Gu\u0308ncellenmesi\u201d ve \u201c\u0130stanbul \u0130li Marmara K\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 Tsunami Modelleme, Hasar G\u00f6rebilirlik ve Tehlike Analizi G\u00fcncellemesi\u201dne dair haz\u0131rlanan raporlar\u0131n I\u0307stanbul genelini etkileyebilecek olas\u0131 bir depremin etkilerini ortaya koydu\u011fu ve kay\u0131plar\u0131n meka\u0302nsal dag\u0306\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n u\u0308retilerek kent genelinde riski yu\u0308ksek olan bo\u0308lgelerin ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak tespit edildi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r (7, 8). Ortaya konulan bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n afet riskini azaltma g\u00f6revini \u00fcstlenen kurum ve kurulu\u015flar\u0131n ve karar vericilerin afet riskini azaltmaya yo\u0308nelik tu\u0308m ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda yol go\u0308sterici nitelikte oldu\u011fu belirtilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Deprem risklerini azaltma ad\u0131na \u0130stanbul\u2019da kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve riskli alan ilan\u0131 ser\u00fcveni
\n<\/strong>Yukar\u0131da \u00f6zetlenen ve bug\u00fcne kadar elde edilen bilgileri ve kay\u0131p risklerini inceledi\u011fimizde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u0130stanbul\u2019un yeniden deprem tehlikesinin belirlenmesine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermek ve \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak m\u0131 olmayacak m\u0131\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda kaybolmak yerine, b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir mek\u00e2nsal planlama yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla \u00f6ncelikli risk alanlar\u0131nda risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 eylemleri i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00e7aba harcamam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.
\n17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminden 21 y\u0131l sonra halk\u0131m\u0131zla yap\u0131lan anketlere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ulusal \u00e7apta deprem kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma konusunda beklenen ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u0131l Kent K\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc ve Demokrasi Derne\u011fi\u2019nin Gezici Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015eirketi\u2019ne yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 12 ilde 1126 ki\u015fiyle yap\u0131lan ankete g\u00f6re halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 72\u2019si depreme kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z oldu\u011funu ifade ederken h\u00fck\u00fcmetin depreme haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 79,3 bulunmu\u015ftur.
\nD\u00f6rt b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcniversitenin ilgili uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130stanbul Deprem Master (Ana) Plan\u0131 (5) \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji ve eylemleri enine boyuna tart\u0131\u015fan ve \u00f6nerilerde bulunan bir yol haritas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu de\u011ferli plan nedense bug\u00fcne kadar y\u00f6neticilerden gereken ilgiyi g\u00f6rememi\u015f ve raflarda b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bundan sonra ana hedefimiz, 2018\u2019de revize edilen deprem tehlike ve risklerini de dikkate alarak bir an \u00f6nce s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir yakla\u015f\u0131mlarla \u0130stanbul Deprem Ana Plan\u0131\u2019n\u0131 uygulamaya koymak olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Kaybedilecek zaman yoktur. Bu ama\u00e7 do\u011frultusunda, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan et\u00fct ve ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar risk \u00f6ncelikli alanlar\u0131n belirlenmesi ve \u00f6neri geli\u015ftirme hedeflerine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak \u015fekilde kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Son raporlarda sunulan verilerle, \u0130stanbul Deprem Ana Plan\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan irdelemeler yenilenmeli, g\u00fcncel ko\u015fullara ili\u015fkin yeni analizler yap\u0131lmal\u0131, dinamik bir model kurulmal\u0131 ve yeni proje tak\u0131mlar\u0131 geli\u015ftirilmelidir. Bu hedeflere ula\u015fmay\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem kay\u0131p ve hasarlar\u0131n\u0131 en aza indirmek amac\u0131yla \u0130BB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cDeprem Seferberli\u011fi\u201d s\u00fcreci ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olup bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde \u0130stanbul Deprem \u00c7al\u0131\u015ftay\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve \u0130stanbul Deprem Platformu ve Deprem Bilim Dan\u0131\u015fma Kurulu olu\u015fturulmu\u015ftur.
\nG\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki afet politikalar\u0131 ilkelerine g\u00f6re \u00f6nerilen deprem seferberli\u011fi, deprem risklerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131nda y\u00f6netimlerin \u00fcstlendikleri can ve mal koruma sorumluluklar\u0131n\u0131n toplumla payla\u015fmay\u0131 gerektirir (11). Seferberlik s\u00fcrecinde kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k ve payda\u015fl\u0131k ortam\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in her toplumsal kesimin temsil edildi\u011fi platformlar kurulmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir. \u0130stanbul Deprem Platformu bu nedenle \u00f6nemlidir. \u0130stanbul toplumunun bir seferberli\u011fe kat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak \u00fczere olu\u015fturulacak y\u00f6ntem, anl\u0131k ya da rastlant\u0131sal olmaktan uzak, kal\u0131c\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir ortakl\u0131k yap\u0131lanmas\u0131na dayanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Prof. Dr. Murat Balamir\u2019e g\u00f6re \u201c\u0130stanbul Deprem Platformu, \u0130stanbul\u2019un mevcut kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n temsilcilerini bir araya getiren, d\u00fczenli bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131 kuran, platformun g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve kararlar\u0131n\u0131 yetkili k\u0131lan bir kimlik kazand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile sa\u011flan\u0131r. Bu birimin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ilkeleri ve d\u00fczeni ortakla\u015fa bir protokol\/y\u00f6nerge ile belirlenir. \u00dcniversiteler, sanayi ve ticaret odalar\u0131, medya, meslek odalar\u0131, i\u015f \u00e7evreleri, sigorta ve finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131, STK\u2019lar, vb. \u0130stanbul Afet\/Deprem Platformu\u2019nun kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131d\u0131r. Her kesim, kendi temsilcisini se\u00e7erken konuya ili\u015fkin \u00f6nerilerini de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f ve iletmi\u015f olacakt\u0131r.\u201d (11, 12) \u0130BB\u2019nin bug\u00fcne kadar yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar sonucu zemin ve yap\u0131 stoku riskleri de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015f olmakla birlikte deprem risklerini azaltmak i\u00e7in \u0130stanbul Deprem Ana Plan\u0131\u2019nda \u00f6nerildi\u011fi gibi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir risk boyutunun, yani mek\u00e2nsal risklerin g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve riskleri azaltma eylemlerine baz olacak kapsaml\u0131 ve g\u00fcncel bir CBS ortam\u0131n\u0131n yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r (11, 12). Mek\u00e2nsal risklerin tespiti ve \u00f6nceliklerin belirlenmesinden sonra kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm projeleri \u201ctoplu kentsel yenileme\u201d anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ele al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu yakla\u015f\u0131m tekil, parsel baz\u0131nda d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve iyile\u015ftirme stratejisine k\u0131yasla sosyal ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131lardan \u00e7ok daha etkili ve verimli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r. 18 y\u0131l \u00f6nce yaz\u0131lan \u0130stanbul Deprem Ana Plan\u0131 zaten bu konuda 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir yol haritas\u0131 \u00e7izmi\u015f, her sekt\u00f6rde uygulanabilecek proje t\u00fcrlerini sorumlular\u0131, ilgilileri, b\u00fct\u00e7eleri ile ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.
\nKentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ad\u0131na 2012\u2019de aceleyle \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan ve \u00e7ok kez yasa ve y\u00f6netmeliklerinde yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle i\u015fe yarar duruma getirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ama rantsal s\u00fcre\u00e7lere kayarak beklenen performans\u0131 sa\u011flayamayan 6306 say\u0131l\u0131 kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yasas\u0131na g\u00f6re en fazla \u201criskli alan\u201d ilan edilen \u015fehir \u0130stanbul olmu\u015ftur. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ilan edilen riskli alanlar\u0131n be\u015fte biri \u0130stanbul\u2019dad\u0131r. Ancak bu uygulamalar \u0130stanbul\u2019da riskleri azaltmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun mek\u00e2nsal riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 eden, rasgele, \u00f6nceliksiz, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yo\u011funluk yaratan, b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir planlama anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131na uymayan uygulamalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Yasan\u0131n hukuki yetersizlikleri, uzla\u015fma y\u00f6netimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmemesi ve parsel baz\u0131nda y\u0131k-yap veya gayrimenkul geli\u015ftirme gibi piyasa i\u015flerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen uygulamalar nedeniyle ilan edilen bir\u00e7ok riskli alanda projeler yap\u0131lamad\u0131, yap\u0131lan baz\u0131 uygulamalar ise amaca ula\u015famad\u0131. Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm bahane edilerek kamu alanlar\u0131 sebepsiz zenginle\u015fme arac\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ad\u0131na yap\u0131lan uygulamalar \u00fcst gelir grubuna ait semtlerde parsel baz\u0131nda y\u0131k, emsal artt\u0131r ve yap t\u00fcr\u00fc bir m\u00fcteahhitlik i\u015fine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan tehlike ve risk et\u00fctlerinde belirlenen en riskli alanlar g\u00f6rmezden gelindi ve \u00f6ncelikler riskin ve maliyetin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ancak rant\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu alanlara kayd\u0131. Avrupa yakas\u0131nda tsunami ve zemin yap\u0131s\u0131 ve zemin b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi sorunlar\u0131 olan k\u0131y\u0131lar ve dere yataklar\u0131na imar tadilatlar\u0131 ile \u00fcst gelir grubuna konut i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek emsalli konut projeleri yap\u0131ld\u0131. As\u0131l ama\u00e7 has\u0131l olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan orta ve alt gelir grubu halk\u0131n g\u00fcvenini kazanan bir kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm modeli ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lamad\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok uygulama alan\u0131ndaki hak sahipleri mek\u00e2nlar\u0131ndan memnun kalmad\u0131 veya bulunduklar\u0131 mahalleleri terk ettiler.
\n\u015eekil 2\u2019de 2012-2020 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u0130stanbul\u2019da kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm i\u00e7in ilan edilen riskli alanlar\u0131n oldu\u011fu il\u00e7eler ile \u0130BB\u2019nin yapt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 et\u00fctlere g\u00f6re en fazla a\u011f\u0131r hasara maruz kalan alanlar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buradan da g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir ki en riskli alanlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in riskli alan ilan edilmemi\u015ftir. Hasar riski daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck alanlarda \u00f6ncelikli riskli alan ilan\u0131n\u0131n nedeni anla\u015f\u0131lamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u00e7ekmece, Ba\u011fc\u0131lar ve Zeytinburnu gibi y\u00fcksek riskli alanlarda ne yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve varsa hak sahiplerinin durumu nedir? Sulukule\u2019de yap\u0131lan nas\u0131l bir kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmd\u00fcr ki hak sahipleri orada ev-bark sahibi olamam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r? A\u011f\u0131r hasar ve can kayb\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan Gaziosmanpa\u015fa\u2019da neden 10 mahalle riskli alan ilan edilmi\u015ftir ve oralarda bug\u00fcne kadar ne yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r? Kad\u0131k\u00f6y Fikirtepe\u2019de 9500 konut ve i\u015fyeri y\u0131k\u0131p emsali \u00e7ok fazla art\u0131r\u0131p yerine 35.000 konut yapma giri\u015fimi d\u00fcnyada hangi mahalledeki kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm modeline uymaktad\u0131r? Riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan Sar\u0131yer\u2019de hangi risklere g\u00f6re d\u00f6rt mahalle riskli alan ilan edilmi\u015ftir? Neden en y\u00fcksek riskli il\u00e7elerden Fatih ve B\u00fcy\u00fck\u00e7ekmece\u2019de riskli alan ilan edilememi\u015ftir? \u00d6rne\u011fin 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130stanbul Deprem Ana Plan\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda o zamanki bina dag\u0306\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na go\u0308re heyelan alanlar\u0131nda 24.862 yap\u0131dan % 97\u2019si, s\u0131v\u0131las\u0327ma alanlar\u0131nda 19.002 yap\u0131dan % 89\u2019u, tsunami tehlikeli alanlarda 20.791 yap\u0131dan % 85\u2019i, dere yatag\u0306\u0131\/vadi taban\u0131 alanlar\u0131ndaki 108.556 yap\u0131n\u0131n % 91\u2019i konuttur. Yine o zamanki yap\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131na go\u0308re I\u0307stanbul yap\u0131 stokunun % 15\u2019i konum ac\u0327\u0131s\u0131ndan yanl\u0131s\u0327 yerdedir. Aradan gec\u0327en 17 y\u0131lda bu alanlarda yap\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve c\u0327es\u0327itlilig\u0306inin daha da artt\u0131g\u0306\u0131 ac\u0327\u0131kt\u0131r. K\u0131y\u0131larda yer alan 266 tarihi yap\u0131 ic\u0327in o\u0308zel koruma\/kurtarma planlar\u0131 gereklidir. Bu tespitlerden sonra ka\u00e7 konut ve i\u015fyeri bu heyelan, dere yataklar\u0131, tsunami ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015fma alanlar\u0131ndan kurtar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r? Bu soru \u00f6rneklerini ilan edilen di\u011fer riskli alanlardaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n durumuna g\u00f6re \u00e7o\u011faltabiliriz.<\/p>\n

Hal b\u00f6yleyken Anadolu Ajans\u0131 21.02.2019 tarihinde \u015f\u00f6yle bir haber ge\u00e7iyordu: \u201c\u0130stanbul Valili\u011finden yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u00c7evre ve \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n,\u00a0Kentsel D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Vizyonu\u00a0do\u011frultusunda belirlenen hedeflere ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in yeni bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.\u201d\u00a019 \u015eubat 2019 tarihli Bakanl\u0131k genelgesiyle\u00a0kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00a0s\u00fcrecinin ilke ve esaslar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn valiliklere bildirildi\u011fi aktar\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201cBuna g\u00f6re b\u00fct\u00fcn yurtta il ve il\u00e7e baz\u0131nda afet riski en y\u00fcksek alanlar tespit edilerek, Kentsel D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Strateji Belgesi haz\u0131rlanacak ve 3 ay i\u00e7erisinde Bakanl\u0131k makam\u0131na sunulacak. \u0130limizde\u00a0afet riski\u00a0en y\u00fcksek alanlar\u0131n tespiti ve\u00a0Kentsel D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Strateji Belgesi’nin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ve zaman\u0131nda haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131n Valilik olarak takip\u00e7isi olaca\u011f\u0131z. \u0130stanbul\u2019umuzda kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 afet riskine kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemlerin belirlenmesi konusunda hep birlikte gayret g\u00f6sterece\u011fiz\u201d denildi. Valili\u011fin, genelgede belirtilen esaslar ile 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcrecin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 20 \u015eubat 2019 tarihli yaz\u0131yla \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi, kaymakaml\u0131klar ve il\u00e7e belediyelerine bildirdi\u011fi kaydedildi. Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu \u201cbirlikte gayret g\u00f6sterme\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 kurumlar aras\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fine yol a\u00e7acak sevindirici bir haber. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamadan bug\u00fcne 6 ay ge\u00e7ti, bekliyoruz bakal\u0131m ne t\u00fcr geli\u015fmeler olacak?<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u015eekil 2. Deterministik deprem modeline g\u00f6re Mw:7.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir depremin olmas\u0131 durumunda \u0130stanbul\u2019un il\u00e7elerinde olu\u015facak \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r hasar ve a\u011f\u0131r hasarl\u0131 yap\u0131lar\u0131n say\u0131sal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile ayn\u0131 il\u00e7elerde \u00c7evre ve \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan ilan edilen riskli alanlar\u0131n il\u00e7elere g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminden sonra 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130stanbul Valili\u011fi b\u00fcnyesinde \u0130stanbul Sismik Riskin Azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Acil Durum Haz\u0131rl\u0131k Projesi (\u0130SMEP) ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (13). Bu proje \u0130stanbul Valili\u011fi Proje Koordinasyon Birimi taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmektedir. Proje tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131nda \u0130stanbul\u2019da deprem \u00f6ncesi, deprem an\u0131 ve deprem sonras\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilk risk azaltma projesi oldu\u011fu belirtilmektedir. Proje s\u00fcresi 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda sona erecektir. Proje bug\u00fcne kadar D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Avrupa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131, Avrupa Konseyi Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131, \u0130slam Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131, Alman Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 gibi be\u015f uluslararas\u0131 bankadan 2,028 milyar Avro (15,5 milyar TL) fonlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7 bile\u015fenden biri olan B bile\u015feni olan proje uygulamalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde (G\u00fc\u00e7lendirme \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, Yeniden Yap\u0131m \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, K\u00fclt\u00fcrel Miras\u0131n Korunmas\u0131) bug\u00fcne kadar 1153 okul binas\u0131, 115 sa\u011fl\u0131k binas\u0131, 38 yurt binas\u0131 ve 78 \u00e7e\u015fitli idari bina yeniden yap\u0131ld\u0131 veya g\u00fc\u00e7lendirildi. \u0130stanbul\u2019da \u00f6rg\u00fcn e\u011fitime hizmet eden okul say\u0131s\u0131 5249, okul \u00f6ncesi okul say\u0131s\u0131 ise 1078 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re daha \u00e7ok say\u0131da okulun depreme diren\u00e7li duruma gelmesi gerekti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. \u0130stanbul\u2019da 52 kamu hastanesine ba\u011fl\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131k binas\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyorum ama bunlar\u0131n 155 tanesi depreme kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f. Ayr\u0131ca 159 tane \u00f6zel hastane var. Bu \u00f6zel hastanelere ait bina say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyorum ama acaba \u00f6zel hastanelerin ka\u00e7 binas\u0131 depreme kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirildi? \u0130SMEP projesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde acaba deprem riski en y\u00fcksek mek\u00e2nlarda bulunan kamu binalar\u0131 riski azaltma ad\u0131na daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli mek\u00e2nlara ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131 m\u0131, yoksa ayn\u0131 yerlerde mi kald\u0131? Uluslararas\u0131 kredilerle fonlanan bu projelere se\u00e7ilen kamu binalar\u0131n\u0131n yerleri mek\u00e2nsal riskler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir risk azaltma planlamas\u0131 (sak\u0131n\u0131m plan\u0131) anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yeniden d\u00fczenlendi mi? Projeler ula\u015f\u0131m, tsunami, y\u00fcksek yer ivmesi ve di\u011fer risk sekt\u00f6rleri etkileri gibi olgular g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak yeni bir yerle\u015fim planlamas\u0131 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi mi?<\/p>\n

KAYNAKLAR
\n<\/strong>1) Parsons, T., 2004, Recalculated probability of M > 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, J. Geophys. Res., 109.
\n2) Gasperini, L., A. Polonia, G. Bortoluzzi, P. Henry, X. Le Pichon, M. Tryon, N. \u00c7a\u011fatay and L. Geli (2011), How far did the surface rupture of the 1999 Izmit earthquake reach in Sea of Marmara?, Tectonics, 30.
\n3) Lange, D., Kopp, H., Royer, J-Y., Henry, P., C\u0327ak\u0131r, Z., Petersen, F., Sakic, P., Ballu, V., Bialas, J., O\u0308zeren, M.S., Ergintav, S. and Ge\u0301li, L., 2019, Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore, I\u0307stanbul, Nature Communications, V10, Article number: 3006, 9 pages.
\n4) \u0130BB-JICA Raporu, 2002, Pacific Consultants International, OYO Corporation, \u201cThe Study on a Disaster Prevention\/Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul Including Seismic Microzonation in the Republic of Turkey,\u201d Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) taraf\u0131ndan \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi\u2019ne (\u0130BB) sunulan rapor.
\n5) \u0130stanbul \u0130\u00e7in Deprem Master Plan\u0131 (\u0130DMP), 2003, \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi, Planlama ve \u0130mar Dairesi, Zemin Ve Deprem \u0130nceleme M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130stanbul Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Orta Do\u011fu Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Y\u0131ld\u0131z Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, 7 Temmuz 2003, 1344 sayfa.
\n6) \u0130BB-OYO, 2009, Deprem Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Kentsel \u0130yile\u015ftirme Daire Bas\u0327kanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Deprem ve Zemin \u0130nceleme M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Anadolu Yakas\u0131 M\u0131ikrob\u00f6lgeleme Rapor ve Haritalar\u0131n\u0131n Yap\u0131lmas\u0131, Ana Rapor, Kas\u0131m 2009, \u0130stanbul B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi-Oyo International Corporation, 864 Sayfa.
\n7) \u0130BB, 2018, \u0130stanbul \u0130li Olas\u0131 Deprem Kay\u0131p Tahminlerinin G\u00fcncellenmesi Projesi, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Aras\u0327t\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, Deprem M\u00fchendisli\u011fi Ana Bilim Dal\u0131, 305 sayfa.
\n8) \u0130stanbul \u0130li Marmara K\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131 Tsunami Modelleme, Hasar G\u00f6rebilirlik ve Tehlike Analizi G\u00fcncelleme Projesi Sonu\u00e7 Raporu, ODT\u00dc Raporu, May\u0131s 2018, 507 sayfa.
\n9) Eyido\u011fan, H. ve U. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, 1993, T\u00fcrkiye deprem b\u00f6lgeleri haritas\u0131n\u0131n evrimi ve yeni bir harita i\u00e7in \u00f6neri, Jeofizik, 7, 95-108.
\n10) https:\/\/adalidergisi.com\/cms\/adali-dergisi\/2010-2019\/2019\/sayi-170-agustos-2019\/makale\/2711\/prens-adalari-nin-uc-afetinden-biri-deprem
\n11) Balamir, M., 2019, \u2018Deprem Seferberli\u011fi S\u00f6ylemleri\u2019, Bilim ve Gelecek Dergisi<\/em>, 2-4.
\n12) Balamir, M., 2020, I\u0307BB Deprem Seferberl\u0131\u0307g\u0306\u0131\u0307 G\u0131\u0307r\u0131\u0307s\u0327\u0131\u0307m\u0131\u0307 \u0130\u00e7in Strateji \u00d6nerileri, Ki\u015fisel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme.
\n13) https:\/\/www.ipkb.gov.tr\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bug\u00fcne kadar elde edilen bilgileri ve kay\u0131p risklerini inceledi\u011fimizde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u0130stanbul\u2019un yeniden deprem tehlikesinin belirlenmesine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermek ve \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak m\u0131 olmayacak m\u0131\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda kaybolmak yerine, b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir mek\u00e2nsal planlama yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla \u00f6ncelikli risk alanlar\u0131nda risklerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 eylemleri i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00e7aba harcamam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. 17 A\u011fustos 1999\u2019da Kocaeli-G\u00f6lc\u00fck merkezli 7.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin neden […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1575,"featured_media":45772,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6912,217,38,1],"tags":[5776,691,5479],"class_list":["post-45780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-196-sayi","category-cevre-bilimleri","category-dergi-sayilari","category-genel","tag-beklenen-istanbul-depremi","tag-deprem","tag-haluk-eyidogan"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t