{"id":50961,"date":"2021-07-27T14:11:14","date_gmt":"2021-07-27T11:11:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=50961"},"modified":"2021-07-27T14:13:00","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T11:13:00","slug":"akkuyu-reaktorlerinin-ulkemizdeki-toplam-elektrik-tuketimine-katkisi-ne-kadar-olabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2021\/07\/27\/akkuyu-reaktorlerinin-ulkemizdeki-toplam-elektrik-tuketimine-katkisi-ne-kadar-olabilir","title":{"rendered":"Akkuyu reakt\u00f6rlerinin \u00fclkemizdeki toplam elektrik t\u00fcketimine katk\u0131s\u0131 ne kadar olabilir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bilindi\u011fi gibi 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda Rusya ile “YAP, \u0130\u015eLET VE B\u0130ZE ELEKTR\u0130K SAT” modeline g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan ve TBMM\u2019den ge\u00e7erek yasala\u015fan antla\u015fmaya dayanarak, bug\u00fcn (2021) ilk \u00fc\u00e7 reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn (\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcnitenin) yap\u0131m\u0131 Akkuyu\u2019da s\u00fcrmektedir. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fcnitenin temeli hen\u00fcz at\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye yap\u0131m ve i\u015fletme boyunca herhangi bir para \u00f6demeyecek sadece santralin kurulaca\u011f\u0131 araziyi, santrali yapacak Rosatom \u015firketinin kullan\u0131m\u0131na b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. \u0130lk iki \u00fcnitede \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin y\u00fczde 70\u2019i i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye al\u0131m garantisi vermi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer iki \u00fcnitede \u00fcretilecek elektrik i\u00e7in ise sat\u0131n alma garantisi y\u00fczde 30 olup T\u00fcrkiye kWh ba\u015f\u0131na 12,35 usd-Cent \u00f6deyecektir (1). Her bir \u00fcnite 1200 MWe g\u00fcc\u00fcnde olacak, d\u00f6rt reakt\u00f6r ileride birlikte devreye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na (2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda?) toplam 4800 MWe “elektrik g\u00fcce” ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en aylarda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fcnitenin online temel atma t\u00f6reninde Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 “Bu n\u00fckleer santral i\u015fletildi\u011finde 35 Milyar kWh (= 35 TeraWh= 35TWh) elektrik \u00fcreterek, \u00fclkemiz elektri\u011finin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131layacakt\u0131” demi\u015ftir. S\u00f6z\u00fc edilen 35 TWh elektrik \u00fcretim beklentisi d\u00f6rt \u00fcnite (reakt\u00f6r) birlikte tam kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sa\u011flanabilecektir ve bu, uzun y\u0131llarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olduk\u00e7a zor olan ortalama y\u00fczde 83 kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131 kullan\u0131larak yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir kestirimdir.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc resmi planlamaya g\u00f6re ilk \u00fcnitenin 29 Ekim 2023\u2019de i\u015fletmeye a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Di\u011ferlerinin iki y\u0131l ara ile devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re ikinci \u00fcnitenin 2025 sonu, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fcnitenin 2027 sonu ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fcnitenin de 2029 sonu devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak bug\u00fcne kadar reakt\u00f6rlerin yap\u0131m\u0131ndaki gecikmeler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (\u00f6zellikle teknolojideki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle zorunlu ek yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve de\u011fi\u015fiklikler nedeniyle) biz her bir \u00fcnitenin elektrik \u00fcretimine ge\u00e7mesinde en az\u0131ndan bir ila be\u015f y\u0131l aras\u0131nda gecikme olabilece\u011finin hesaplanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i buluyoruz.<\/p>\n

Umar\u0131z planlanan y\u0131llarda reakt\u00f6rler devre al\u0131nabilir ve bir gecikme olmaz.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elektrik \u00fcretimi ve t\u00fcketimi ileride ne kadar olabilir?<\/strong>
\n\u00dclkemizin 1970-2020 aras\u0131 elektik \u00fcretimi ve \u00fcretimdeki art\u0131\u015f, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u00e7izelgeden (\u015eekil 1) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Genellikle t\u00fcketim de yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak \u00fcretim miktar\u0131na denktir.<\/p>\n

TC Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n, bu konuda internet sayfalar\u0131ndan yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama \u015f\u00f6yledir:<\/p>\n

“T\u00fcrkiye elektrik enerjisi \u00fcretimi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re\u00a0 y\u00fczde 2,2 artarak 304,2 milyar kWh, elektrik t\u00fcketimi ise bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2,2 oran\u0131nda artarak 304,8 milyar kWh (304,8 TWh) olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Elektrik t\u00fcketiminin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda baz senaryoya g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 4,8 art\u0131\u015fla 375,8 TWh’e ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir” (https:\/\/enerji.gov.tr\/bilgi-merkezi-enerji-elektrik).<\/p>\n

Elektrik santrallerindeki br\u00fct ve net elektrik \u00fcretimi nedir? Almanya deneyimi…<\/strong>
\nBir elektrik santrali bir yandan elektrik \u00fcretirken di\u011fer yandan da kendi gereksinimleri i\u00e7in enerji t\u00fcketiyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin santraller, pompalar\u0131, \u00e7e\u015fitli makine ve aletleri \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak, bina i\u00e7i ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, santral alan\u0131nda ayd\u0131nlanma, klima sistemlerini \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in elektrik kullanmak zorundanlar. Bu nedenlerle \u015febekeye verilecek net elektrik miktar\u0131, \u00fcretilen (br\u00fct) miktar\u0131n alt\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda Almanya\u2019daki t\u00fcm n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6rler toplam olarak 97,3 TWh br\u00fct elektrik \u00fcrettiler ama \u015febekeye beslenen net miktar 92,1 TWh oldu. Buradan reakt\u00f6rlerin kendi gereksinimleri i\u00e7in kulland\u0131klar\u0131 elektrik miktar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fcrettiklerinin y\u00fczde 5,3\u2019\u00fc kadar oldu\u011fu bulunur (4) (2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda: 97,3 \u2013 92,1= 5,2 TWh 5,2\/97,3= %5,3).<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u015eekil 1: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrik \u00fcretimindeki y\u0131llara g\u00f6re art\u0131m (Enerji Atlas\u0131 https:\/\/www.enerjiatlasi.com\/elektrik-uretimi\/)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Kapasite katsay\u0131lar\u0131 (fakt\u00f6rleri)<\/strong>
\nBir elektrik santrali, n\u00fckleer ya da de\u011fil, y\u0131llar boyunca, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen maksimum g\u00fcc\u00fcnde s\u00fcrekli olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fam\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin y\u0131ll\u0131k bak\u0131m ve onar\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, kaza ve ar\u0131zalar nedeniyle bir ka\u00e7 g\u00fcnden bir ka\u00e7 aya, hatta baz\u0131 \u00f6zel durumlarda 1-2 y\u0131la kadar da durdurulabiliyor. Bu nedenlerle, belirli bir s\u00fcrede, bir n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekten \u00fcretti\u011fi elektrik miktar\u0131n\u0131n (GEM), maksimum g\u00fcc\u00fcne g\u00f6re \u00fcretmesi gereken miktar\u0131n\u0131n (MaksEM) oran\u0131 ki, bu oran y\u00fczde olarak veriliyor. “Kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131” olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor (2) (Kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131 = GEM \/ MaksEM).<\/p>\n

\u00d6rne\u011fin 1200 MWe g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki Akkuyu\u2019daki gibi bir reakt\u00f6r hi\u00e7 durmadan maksimum g\u00fc\u00e7te \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u0131lda: MaksEM = 1200 MWe x 24 Saat\/g\u00fcn x 365 g\u00fcn\/y\u0131l = 10,5 TWh elektrik \u00fcretecektir.<\/p>\n

Herhangi bir y\u0131l ger\u00e7ekte \u00fcretebildi\u011fi elektrik miktar\u0131, \u00e7e\u015fitli durdurmalar ya da daha az g\u00fc\u00e7te \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmalar nedeniyle, e\u011fer 8 TWh olmu\u015f ise, buradan kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131: 8 \/10,5= %76\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bir y\u0131l i\u00e7in olan bu oran ileride bir reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u015fletildi\u011fi \u00f6rne\u011fin 10-30 y\u0131l i\u00e7in hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, o reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn ortalama kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131 bulunmu\u015f olur. Ortalama kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131, Almanya\u2019daki 20 kadar reakt\u00f6r i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k i\u015fletme s\u00fcresince y\u00fczde 68 ile y\u00fczde 80 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor (Kapasite katsay\u0131lar\u0131ndaki, reakt\u00f6rlerin cinslerine ve \u00fclkelere (b\u00f6lgelere) g\u00f6re g\u00f6zlenen b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimler i\u00e7in ilgili \u015fekillere bkz).<\/p>\n

Bu nedenlerle e\u011fer bir reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn ileride ne kadar elektrik \u00fcretece\u011fi kestirilmek isteniyorsa, benzer reakt\u00f6rlerin y\u0131llar boyunca \u00fcretebildikleri elektrik miktarlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ona g\u00f6re hesaplama yap\u0131lmas\u0131yla y\u00f6nlendirici de\u011ferler elde edilebilir. Kapasite katsay\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 her bir reakt\u00f6r i\u00e7in anl\u0131k, y\u0131ll\u0131k, de\u011ferler olarak de\u011fil, uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131 olarak hesaplamak bir reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6rne\u011fin 30 y\u0131l gibi i\u015fletme s\u00fcresinde ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar elektrik \u00fcretece\u011fini ortaya \u00e7\u0131karacakt\u0131r ki bilinmek istenen de zaten budur. Bu de\u011fer her bir reakt\u00f6re \u00f6zg\u00fc olup ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar oldu\u011fu, ancak uzun y\u0131llar sonra elde edilen toplam elektrik miktar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n

Kapasite katsay\u0131lar\u0131yla ilgili grafiklerden g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi Avrupa ve Rusya i\u00e7in ortalama kapasite katsay\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fczde 80\u2019in alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Almanya\u2019da Biblis A reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 30 y\u0131l s\u00fcreyle i\u015fletilmesi sonunda kapasite katsay\u0131s\u0131 ancak y\u00fczde 69 kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmu\u015ftur. Buna, \u00e7e\u015fitli ayg\u0131tlar\u0131, borular\u0131 sa\u011flam olarak monte edebilmek i\u00e7in, duvara \u00e7ak\u0131lan 25 cm\u2019lik d\u00fcbellerin biraz e\u011fik \u00e7ak\u0131lmalar\u0131 ve 15.000 d\u00fcbelin s\u00f6k\u00fcl\u00fcp tekrar montaj\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131n yetkili kurumca verilmesi sonucu, denetimlerle birlikte bu i\u015f 1,5 y\u0131l s\u00fcrerek reakt\u00f6r \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu de\u011ferlerin farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Biblis\u2019teki gibi her bir reakt\u00f6r i\u00e7in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan farkl\u0131 sorunlard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir yarg\u0131 karar\u0131 reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bir ka\u00e7 aydan bir ka\u00e7 y\u0131la kadar engelleyebilir. Ya da hesaplanmayan bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kaza ya da ar\u0131za ve onar\u0131m bir ka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Kaynak: World Nuclear Association, IAEA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131m<\/strong>
\nBiz t\u00fcm bu nedenlerle Akkuyu\u2019daki d\u00f6rt n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn (\u00fcnitenin) her birinin kapasite katsay\u0131lar\u0131 olarak minimum y\u00fczde 76 ve maksimum y\u00fczde 86 de\u011ferlerini \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek hesaplar yapt\u0131k. Bunlar, Akkuyu\u2019da yap\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcren \u00fc\u00e7 n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r ile hen\u00fcz temeli at\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn bug\u00fcn (2021) i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olan i\u015fletmeye al\u0131nmalar\u0131 plan\u0131na ve Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n elektrik t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 4,8 art\u0131m baz senaryosuna g\u00f6re yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hesaplar olup, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u00e7izelgede bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Not: Bu de\u011ferler reakt\u00f6rlerin \u00fcretebilecekleri br\u00fct miktarlard\u0131r. Reakt\u00f6rlerin kendi gereksinimleri i\u00e7in kullanacaklar\u0131 elektrik miktar\u0131 ise, \u00fcrettiklerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak y\u00fczde be\u015fi kadard\u0131r (Yukar\u0131daki Almanya deneyimlerine bkz). Bu miktar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u015febekeye verilen net elektrik miktar\u0131 azalacakt\u0131r.
\u00d6rne\u011fin 2031 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fcretilmesi beklenen toplam net miktarlar minimum ve maksimum olarak: Minimum Net Miktar : 6 x 0,95= 5,7 TWh ve Maksimum Net Miktar : 6,8 x 0,95= 6,3 TWh<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Sonu\u00e7:<\/strong>
\nAkkuyu\u2019daki d\u00f6rt reakt\u00f6r 2031 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00f6rd\u00fc birden devreye al\u0131n\u0131p elektrik \u00fcretirlerse, yukar\u0131da yap\u0131lan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam elektrik t\u00fcketiminin en az y\u00fczde 5,7 ve en fazla y\u00fczde 6,3 kadar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacaklar denilebilir.<\/p>\n

Not: Akkuyu reakt\u00f6rlerinin radyasyon g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve reakt\u00f6rlerdeki kazalarla ilgili olarak bkz. (5,6)<\/p>\n

KAYNAKLAR \/ TANIMLAR<\/strong>
\n1) Rusya ile 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan andla\u015fma, 6 Ekim 2010 g\u00fcnl\u00fc ve 27721 say\u0131l\u0131 Resmi gazete https:\/\/www.resmigazete.gov.tr\/eskiler\/2010\/10\/20101006-6.htm
\n2) Capacity factor or Load Factor of electricity generation is a measure (expressed as a percentage) of how often an electricity generator (e.g. Nuclear Reactor) operates during a specific period of time using a ratio of the actual output to the maximum possible output during that time period. The Load Factor, also referred to as the Capacity Factor, reflects the actual energy utilization of a reactor unit compared to its reference power output; a high load or capacity factor indicates good operational performance (IAEA).
\n3) Electricity net generation is the amount of gross electricity generation a generator produces minus the electricity used to operate the power plant. These electricity uses include fuel handling equipment, water pumps, combustion and cooling air fans, pollution control equipment, and other electricity needs.
\n4) https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/faqs\/faq.php?id=101&t=3
\n5) \u00c7ERNOB\u0130L KAZASI G\u0130B\u0130 B\u0130R KAZA, AKKUYU N\u00dcKLEER REAKT\u00d6RLER\u0130NDE DE OLAB\u0130L\u0130R M\u0130? \u2013 Fizik Y. M\u00fch. Dr. Y\u00fcksel Atakan (radyasyonyatakan.com)
\n6) \u00dclkemizde Kurulacak N\u00fckleer Santrallar\u0131n Radyasyon G\u00fcvenli\u011fiyle \u0130lgili \u00d6neriler \u2013 Fizik Y. M\u00fch. Dr. Y\u00fcksel Atakan (radyasyonyatakan.com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bilindi\u011fi gibi 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda Rusya ile “YAP, \u0130\u015eLET VE B\u0130ZE ELEKTR\u0130K SAT” modeline g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan ve TBMM\u2019den ge\u00e7erek yasala\u015fan antla\u015fmaya dayanarak, bug\u00fcn (2021) ilk \u00fc\u00e7 reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn (\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcnitenin) yap\u0131m\u0131 Akkuyu\u2019da s\u00fcrmektedir. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fcnitenin temeli hen\u00fcz at\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye yap\u0131m ve i\u015fletme boyunca herhangi bir para \u00f6demeyecek sadece santralin kurulaca\u011f\u0131 araziyi, santrali yapacak Rosatom \u015firketinin kullan\u0131m\u0131na b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":560,"featured_media":50962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[826,1017,1506,7822,7823],"class_list":["post-50961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilim-gundemi","tag-akkuyu","tag-elektrik","tag-nukleer-santral","tag-reaktor","tag-unite"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/560"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50961\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}