Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundaki enfeksiyon say\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6n analize ve \u015fehirler aras\u0131 seyahat verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in’deki devasa COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonunda zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131. Ancak halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131, salg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ciddiyetine ili\u015fkin resmi verilerin eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle h\u00fcsrana u\u011fruyor.
\n\u00c7in’in kat\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r COVID politikas\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131la yak\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir enfeksiyonlar\u0131 uzak tutabilmi\u015fti. Ancak Ba\u015fkan Xi Jinping Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda aniden y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirip bu politikay\u0131 terk etti\u011finden, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn Omicron varyant\u0131 \u00fclke geneline yay\u0131ld\u0131.
\nBirle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Southampton \u00dcniversitesi’nde bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 hastal\u0131klar modelcisi olan Shengjie Lai’ye g\u00f6re, mevcut enfeksiyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in’in bir\u00e7ok yerinde \u00e7oktan zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler var. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonlar\u0131nda Lai, varyant\u0131n Ekim ve Kas\u0131m 2022’de nas\u0131l yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bilgileri \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda \u015fehirler aras\u0131 seyahatle ilgili verilerle birle\u015ftirerek \u00c7in’in farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde meydana gelen enfeksiyon say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.
\nLai’nin hen\u00fcz yay\u0131nlanmayan veya hakem taraf\u0131ndan incelenmeyen analizine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in \u015fehirlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 10 Aral\u0131k ile 31 Aral\u0131k aras\u0131nda kovidde zirve yapt\u0131. \u015eehirlerin %45’i i\u00e7in de zirvenin Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.
\nBu sonu\u00e7, Lai’nin internet arama platformu Baidu’da \u2018ate\u015f\u2019 ve \u2018COVID\u2019 gibi terimleri kullanarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018yo\u011fun zamanlar\u2019 saptamas\u0131yla uyumlu \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Belirli \u015fehir ve illerdeki enfeksiyonlar\u0131n boyutuna ili\u015fkin raporlar da uyumluydu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 21 Aral\u0131k’ta Pekin \u00c7in Hastal\u0131k Kontrol ve \u00d6nleme Merkezi’nin (\u00c7in CDC) m\u00fcd\u00fcr yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 bir brifing s\u0131ras\u0131nda 250 milyondan fazla insan\u0131n – n\u00fcfusun yakla\u015f\u0131k %18’i – zaten enfekte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Pekin ve Si\u00e7uan gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirlerde ise n\u00fcfusun %50’sinden fazlas\u0131 enfekte olmu\u015ftu.
\nBu s\u0131rada, \u00c7in’in en kalabal\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc eyaleti olan Henan’da, eyaletin sa\u011fl\u0131k komisyonundan bir yetkili bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 6 Ocak’a kadar Henan n\u00fcfusunun yakla\u015f\u0131k %90’\u0131n\u0131n enfekte oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Lai ve arkada\u015flar\u0131na g\u00f6reyse, bu tahminler muhtemelen yerel sa\u011fl\u0131k yetkililerinin \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7evrimi\u00e7i anketlerle belirlenmi\u015fti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc test edilenden daha fazla insan enfekte olmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu.
\nSeattle, Washington Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcmleri ve De\u011ferlendirme Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christopher Murray, nas\u0131l yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u015feffafl\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr enfeksiyon tahminlerine \u015f\u00fcpheyle yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle vurguluyor. Onlar\u0131n tahminlerine g\u00f6re salg\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131 sonuna kadar zirve noktaya ula\u015fmayabilir.
\nAncak Avustralya’n\u0131n Melbourne kentindeki Doherty Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden epidemiyolog Jodie McVernon, Omicron varyant\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, salg\u0131n\u0131n zaten zirveye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. “\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edece\u011fi fikri hi\u00e7 mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil” diyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in K\u0131rsal\u0131<\/strong> Toplam \u00f6l\u00fcm say\u0131s\u0131 bilinmiyor Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundaki enfeksiyon say\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6n analize ve \u015fehirler aras\u0131 seyahat verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in’deki devasa COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonunda zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131. Ancak halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131, salg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ciddiyetine ili\u015fkin resmi verilerin eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle h\u00fcsrana u\u011fruyor. \u00c7in’in kat\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r COVID politikas\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131la yak\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir enfeksiyonlar\u0131 uzak tutabilmi\u015fti. Ancak Ba\u015fkan Xi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":57481,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,4696],"tags":[609,8568,5891],"class_list":["post-57480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilim-gundemi","category-tip","tag-cin","tag-kovid-19","tag-pandemi"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t
\nLai, vir\u00fcs zaten \u00c7in’de h\u0131zla yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u015fehir sakinlerinin 7 Ocak’ta ba\u015flayan 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Ay Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131 seyahat d\u00f6nemi s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00fclkenin k\u0131rsal kesimlerinde salg\u0131nlar ba\u015flatabilece\u011fine dair korkular\u0131n muhtemelen abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelere \u00e7oktan yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, seyahati k\u0131s\u0131tlaman\u0131n salg\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmede \u00e7ok az etkili olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.
\nConnecticut, New Haven’daki Yale \u00dcniversitesi’nde sa\u011fl\u0131k ekonomisti olan Xi Chen, k\u0131rsal \u00c7in’deki insanlar\u0131n hastal\u0131k ve \u00f6l\u00fcmlerden h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u011f\u0131r \u015fekilde etkilenebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Zira \u00c7in ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusunun yakla\u015f\u0131k %40’\u0131, a\u011f\u0131r vakalar\u0131 tedavi etmek i\u00e7in daha donan\u0131ml\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hastanelere eri\u015fimi olmayan k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015f\u0131yor.
\n\u00c7in’in Nanjing kentindeki G\u00fcneydo\u011fu \u00dcniversitesi’nde halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131 olan Hui Jin, a\u015f\u0131 teredd\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fl\u0131 insanlar aras\u0131nda yayg\u0131n oldu\u011funu, ancak \u00c7in anakaras\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131lama oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Yay\u0131nlanan son verilere g\u00f6re, 60 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc ki\u015filerin %86’s\u0131 ve 80 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc ki\u015filerin %66’s\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sonuna kadar tam a\u015f\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Epidemiyologlar, \u00c7in’de COVID-19’dan ka\u00e7 ki\u015finin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bilmek istiyorlar. 14 Ocak’ta \u00c7in Ulusal Sa\u011fl\u0131k Komisyonu, 8 Aral\u0131k 2022’den bu yana 60.000’e yak\u0131n ki\u015finin COVID-19’dan \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Bu rakam, COVID-19\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 solunum yetmezli\u011finden 5.503 \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra COVID-19 ve di\u011fer altta yatan ko\u015fullardan ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitiren 54.000’den fazla ki\u015fiyi i\u00e7ermekte ancak elbette sadece hastanede \u00f6lenleri kapsamaktad\u0131r.
\n29 Aral\u0131k’ta, \u00c7in CDC’sinin ba\u015f epidemiyolo\u011fu Zunyou Wu bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, ajans\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda fazladan \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve verileri yay\u0131nlamay\u0131 planlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ancak Murray, \u00fclkedeki do\u011fum ve \u00f6l\u00fcmleri kaydetme sistemi eksik oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00c7in’deki COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek bedelini tespit etmenin zor olaca\u011f\u0131ndan endi\u015feleniyor.
\nKud\u00fcs \u0130brani \u00dcniversitesi’nde ekonomist ve D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’n\u00fcn COVID-19 \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesiyle ilgili teknik dan\u0131\u015fma grubunun bir \u00fcyesi olan Ariel Karlinsky, fazladan \u00f6l\u00fcm verilerinin salg\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fc say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini ancak bu t\u00fcr verilerin hesaplanabilmesi i\u00e7in bir y\u0131l daha ge\u00e7mesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Zira 2023’teki \u00f6l\u00fcmler muhtemelen \u00c7in’in Ocak 2024’teki y\u0131ll\u0131k istatistik y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bildirilene kadar bilinemeyecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"