{"id":63021,"date":"2024-08-30T00:00:30","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T21:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/?p=63021"},"modified":"2024-08-29T22:57:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T19:57:48","slug":"akkuyu-nukleer-santralini-rusya-degil-turkiye-yaptirsaydi-daha-mi-ucuza-cikardi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/2024\/08\/30\/akkuyu-nukleer-santralini-rusya-degil-turkiye-yaptirsaydi-daha-mi-ucuza-cikardi","title":{"rendered":"Akkuyu n\u00fckleer santralini Rusya de\u011fil T\u00fcrkiye yapt\u0131rsayd\u0131 daha m\u0131 ucuza \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Y\u00fcksel\u00a0Atakan \/\u00a0Dr.\u00a0Fizik\u00a0Y.\u00a0M\u00fch.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Akkuyu\u2019da herbiri 1200 MW elektrik g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 4 adet reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc bir n\u00fckleer santral yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u015fi 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda, TBMM\u2019de de onaylanan bir andla\u015fmayla Rusya Rosatom devlet \u015firketine verildi.<\/p>\n

Buna g\u00f6re, Rosatom santralin t\u00fcm yap\u0131m giderlerini kar\u015f\u0131layacak, ileride i\u015fletmeye a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131nca da reakt\u00f6rleri 60 y\u0131l boyunca sahibi olarak i\u015fletecek ve ileride \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin kWsaatini 12,35 USD Cent\u2019ten T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye satacak. Bu arada t\u00fcm bak\u0131m onar\u0131m yedek par\u00e7a giderleriyle 60 y\u0131l sonra reakt\u00f6rler durdurulunca s\u00f6k\u00fcm i\u00e7in t\u00fcm giderleri de Rosatom kar\u015f\u0131layacak.<\/p>\n

Bu \u015fekilde \u00f6zetlenebilecek Akkuyu\u00a0 n\u00fckleer sanralinde \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin bu kWh fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ve piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n sadece 5-8 Cent kadar oldu\u011fu zaman zaman medyada yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Biz burada bu fiyat\u0131n pahal\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da Rosatom\u2019un pozisyonunu savunacak de\u011filiz. Ger\u00e7ek durumu g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Her\u015feyden \u00f6nce bu fiyat\u0131n i\u00e7inde, 15-20 y\u0131l\u0131 bulaca\u011f\u0131 gitgide anla\u015f\u0131lan uzun in\u015faat s\u00fcresinin giderlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, 4 reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn t\u00fcm i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f tesislerinin, malzemelerinin, ayr\u0131ca nakliye ve i\u015f\u00e7i \u00fccretlerinin de \u201cyat\u0131r\u0131m giderleri\u201d olarak bulundu\u011fu hesaplanmal\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcm bunlardan ba\u015fka, ileride reakt\u00f6rde kullan\u0131lacak uranyumlu yak\u0131t elemanlar\u0131n\u0131n ve bunlar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinin (yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 adet) her 1,5 y\u0131lda bir de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi gere\u011fi sonucunda Rusya\u2019dan yenilerinin getirilip, y\u00fcksek radyoaktiviteli kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olanlar\u0131n \u201cileri \u00f6nlemler\u201d al\u0131narak g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclmesi fiyatlar\u0131 ile personel, tesis, bak\u0131m, onar\u0131m ve sigorta gibi daha bir dizi giderlerinin de olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmelidir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nce \u015funu g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne almak gerekir ki, piyasa fiyat\u0131 olarak ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclen 5-8 Cent\/kWh fiyata bizim 60 y\u0131l boyunca s\u00fcrekli elektrik sat\u0131n alabilece\u011fimiz bir kom\u015fumuz bulunmuyor. Hi\u00e7bir kom\u015fumuz fazla elektri\u011fi olsa bile bunu bize 60 y\u0131l gibi uzun bir s\u00fcre garanti edemez, zaten elektrik onlarda da ancak kendilerine yetecek kadar \u00fcretilebiliyor ve hatta yetmedi\u011finden yeni elektrik santralleri yapt\u0131rma giri\u015fimleri var (\u00d6rne\u011fin Bulgaristan ABD Westinghouse\u2019dan en modern AP 1000 modeli n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r \u0131smarlama a\u015famas\u0131nda).<\/p>\n

Kendimiz de b\u00fct\u00e7eden son yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131ld\u0131r para ay\u0131ramad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re (Bu konuda N\u00fckleer<\/em> Reakt\u00f6rler<\/em> kitab\u0131m\u0131zdaki di\u011fer yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za bkz.) ancak uygun ko\u015fullarda kredi bulabilirsek Akkuyu\u2019dakine benzer bir santral yapt\u0131rabilirdik. 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir santral i\u00e7in 40 milyar USD\u2019den a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, ABD n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r patentli hi\u00e7bir \u015firkete de biz benzeri bir n\u00fckleer santral yapt\u0131ramazd\u0131k. N\u00fckleer bir reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn yap\u0131m s\u00fcresi bug\u00fcn 15 y\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7iyor hatta 20 y\u0131l\u0131 bulanlar var. Bu demektir ki bizim her y\u0131l en az\u0131ndan 3 milyar USD kredi bulmam\u0131z gerekecekti.<\/p>\n

Bu krediyi % 7 USD faizle bulabilirsek her y\u0131l, 3 milyar x 0,07 = 210 milyon USD faiz, 15 y\u0131lda 3,15 milyar USD faiz \u00f6dememiz gerekirdi. Bu nedenle yapt\u0131r\u0131lan 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc Akkuyu n\u00fckleer santrali i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan 43 milyar USD yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmam\u0131z gerekecekti. Bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mdan sonra elektri\u011fin kWh\u2019\u0131n\u0131 5 Cent\u2019e mi, yoksa 50 Cent\u2019e mi satabilirdik, ekonomistler hesaplamal\u0131lar!<\/p>\n

Kaba bir hesaplama<\/strong>: Akkuyu ilk reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn aradan ge\u00e7ecek 16 y\u0131l sonra 2026\u2019da bitirilip \u015febekeye elektrik verebilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Biz, kWh 12,35 Cent \u00f6deyerek Rosatom\u2019dan elektrik sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 1 y\u0131lda \u00fcretilen ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye sat\u0131lan elektik sonucu Rosatom\u2019un eline ge\u00e7ecek paray\u0131 hesaplarsak:<\/p>\n

1200 MWx24h x 365g\u00fcn x\u00a0 0,80 (ortalama kapasite fakt\u00f6r\u00fc) x 0,1235 = yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 Milyar USD.<\/p>\n

Bunun % 60 kadar\u0131n\u0131n, reakt\u00f6run 16 y\u0131ll\u0131k yap\u0131m, tesis, malzeme giderlerinin ilk i\u015fletme y\u0131l\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Kalan\u0131 da uranyum yak\u0131t elemanlar\u0131n\u0131n (y\u0131lda en az 500-700 milyon USD, Rusya\u2019dan getirip g\u00f6t\u00fcrme dahil), bak\u0131m, onar\u0131m, personel, sigorta, g\u00fcvenlik pay\u0131 olarak hesaplanabilir.<\/p>\n

Kaynak<\/strong>: N\u00fckleer Reakt\u00f6rler<\/em>, Y\u00fcksel Atakan, Sarmal yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2024.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in sadece g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2rda de\u011fil, n\u00fckleer enerjide de \u00f6nc\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7in, yenilenebilir enerjilerde (YE) D\u00fcnya\u2019daki yeni kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131m\u0131ndaki \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinde 180 GW (GigaWatt, Milyar Watt) ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinde de 159 GW art\u0131rarak toplamda 339 GW de\u011ferine ula\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Art\u0131r\u0131lan bu miktar \u00c7in\u2019deki toplam g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjileri kapasitesinin \u00fc\u00e7te birine yak\u0131nd\u0131r.1<\/sup><\/p>\n

\u00c7in, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda mevcut g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc 758 GW de\u011ferine (neredeyse 2 kat\u0131na!) \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. E\u011fer projeler planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi y\u00fcr\u00fcrse, \u00c7in\u2019in 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda toplam g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjileri kapasitesini 1.200 GW de\u011ferine y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor.2<\/sup><\/p>\n

\u00c7in, havaya CO2<\/sub> sal\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak amac\u0131yla, YE\u2019lerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6rler yap\u0131m\u0131na da h\u0131z veriyor. Bu ama\u00e7la 11 yeni n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r yap\u0131m\u0131 yetkili devlet kurumunca ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn onayland\u0131. Bu 11 n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 28 milyar Euro yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lacak ve reakt\u00f6rlerin yap\u0131m s\u00fcresi 5 y\u0131l olacak.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in bug\u00fcn yeni n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r yap\u0131m\u0131nda \u00f6nc\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019de toplam 56 reakt\u00f6r \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in, \u00f6nce Fransa\u2019y\u0131, sonra da 94 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc ABD\u2019yi ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor. Bug\u00fcn 56 reakt\u00f6r \u00c7in\u2019in % 5 elektri\u011fini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ve bunun yeni yap\u0131lacak reakt\u00f6rlerle b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Yeni projelerden biri, gaz so\u011futmal\u0131 y\u00fcksek s\u0131cakl\u0131ktaki bir reakt\u00f6r. En modern 4. ku\u015fak bu reakt\u00f6r, \u0131s\u0131 enerjisi de elektrik de \u00fcretebilecek.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fckleer enerjide at\u0131l\u0131m planlar\u0131<\/strong>3<\/sup><\/p>\n

1) 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yeni 150 reakt\u00f6r yap\u0131lmas\u0131 (27 adet reakt\u00f6r \u015fu an yap\u0131l\u0131yor), yap\u0131m s\u00fcresi di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden \u00e7ok daha k\u0131sa: 7 y\u0131l.<\/p>\n

2) \u00c7in en yeni 4. ku\u015fak reakt\u00f6r\u00fc bitirerek ticari i\u015fletmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 4. ku\u015fak geli\u015fimini % 90 kendisi yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

3) \u00c7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Mod\u00fcler Reakt\u00f6rlerin (SMR) geli\u015ftirilmesi ve uygun fiyatla yap\u0131m\u0131nda \u00f6nc\u00fc.<\/p>\n

4) \u00c7in 4. Ku\u015fak en yeni reakt\u00f6rlerin geli\u015ftirilmesinde ABD\u2019den 10-15 y\u0131l \u00f6nde.<\/p>\n

5) \u00c7in organizasyon ve sistemler dahil her t\u00fcrl\u00fc n\u00fckleer geli\u015fmelerde (inovasyon) \u00f6nc\u00fc.<\/p>\n

6) \u00c7in bilim ve teknoloji yay\u0131nlar\u0131nda H indeksi ile \u00f6nde.<\/p>\n

7) \u00c7in 2008\u2019den 2023\u2019e kadar n\u00fckleer patent oran\u0131n\u0131 %1,3 den % 13,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

D\u0130PNOTLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

1) https:\/\/globalenergymonitor.org\/report\/china-continues-to-lead-the-world-in-wind-and-solar-with-twice-as-much-capacity-under-construction-as-the-rest-of-the-world-combined<\/p>\n

2) https:\/\/www.wiwo.de\/unternehmen\/energie\/atomenergie-elf-neue-reaktoren-china-startet-milliardenschwere-atomoffensive\/29952310.html<\/p>\n

3) https:\/\/itif.org\/publications\/2024\/06\/17\/how-innovative-is-china-in-nuclear-power\/<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Y\u00fcksel\u00a0Atakan \/\u00a0Dr.\u00a0Fizik\u00a0Y.\u00a0M\u00fch. Akkuyu\u2019da herbiri 1200 MW elektrik g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 4 adet reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc bir n\u00fckleer santral yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u015fi 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda, TBMM\u2019de de onaylanan bir andla\u015fmayla Rusya Rosatom devlet \u015firketine verildi. Buna g\u00f6re, Rosatom santralin t\u00fcm yap\u0131m giderlerini kar\u015f\u0131layacak, ileride i\u015fletmeye a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131nca da reakt\u00f6rleri 60 y\u0131l boyunca sahibi olarak i\u015fletecek ve ileride \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin kWsaatini 12,35 USD Cent\u2019ten […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":560,"featured_media":63025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9827,38,535,510],"tags":[8432,8297],"class_list":["post-63021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-245-sayi","category-dergi-sayilari","category-forum","category-surekli-bolumler","tag-akkuyu-nukleer-santrali","tag-yuksel-atakan"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/560"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63021"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63021\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bilimvegelecek.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}